SCHOOL OFBUSINESS ENVISIONING SUSTAINABLE TOURISM FUTURES An Evaluation of the Futures Wheel Method Dr. Pierre Benckendorff School of Business James Cook University

SCHOOL OFBUSINESS Futures Studies Epistemological origins in divination, prophesy and science fiction More closely related to the social sciences than pure sciences A multi-disciplinary field which is concerned with a wide range of views about possible, probable and preferable futures Focus on exploring the future to understand & improve the decisions in the present

SCHOOL OFBUSINESS Futures Studies & Sustainability Futures research useful for envisioning desirable futures and the decisions that need to be made to reach these futures Strategic planning overtone, systems thinking Ideally suited to sustainability – systematic, long range analysis of activities, impacts and outcomes But…tourism researchers often treat futures research with some suspicion.

SCHOOL OFBUSINESS Methods for Studying the Future Extrapolative methods Exploratory methods Modelling Scenarios Participatory methods Normative methods Pesonen et al (2000)

SCHOOL OFBUSINESS Futures Wheel Method Most commonly used to: think through possible impacts of current trends or potential future events organize thoughts about future events or trends create forecasts within alternative scenarios show complex interrelationships display other futures research develop multi-concepts nurture a futures-conscious perspective aid in group brainstorming. Glenn (1994)

SCHOOL OFBUSINESS Futures Wheel Method Primary Impact Secondary Trend or Event

SCHOOL OFBUSINESS Evaluating the Futures Wheel Method Method identification of 62 distinct trends [STEEP] 3 x 150 minute Think Tanks of 8-11 participants An ‘oracle’ + facilitator 559 separate items subjected to inductive thematic analysis using grounded theory approach Selection of Think Tank Participants Identification of trends from literature Session 1: Ranking & identification of key trends using importance/certainty matrix Session 2: Futures wheels exploring implications of key trends Analysis of Futures Wheels using Grounded Theory Approach

The Future of Australian Visitor Attractions 28. Customers come close to being able to 'try before they buy' located away from city centres Use of 'pass' system to manage access to rides Use of entertainment in cues Pay attention to visitors moving around Staff training Increased satisfaction Backup systems needed Increased anticipation Queue becomes part of the ride/ experience May out do actual ride! Safety more important Planning may be rushed Attractions not managed properly Language training for staff Use of multi- language signage ?? Staff training of likely conflicts ?? Some cultures will require more staff time Better queue management Handling confrontation Conference rooms at attractions Higher standard expected Close to airport / city Segment attraction areas Space needs Catering needs More intellectual/ educational attractions Better staff training Management need to think laterally to engage business travellers Staff need to be respectable and professional Constrictive / space problems Congestion / crowding Land expensive Higher admission Smaller attractions More adult- oriented/less family oriented Less demand Fewer visitors Managers need to work harder to attract Less Revenue Attractions close Surviving attractions will offer higher quality Decreased length of stay Different admission price structures Higher visitor turnover More repeat shows Shorter queue times needed

SCHOOL OFBUSINESS Evaluating the Futures Wheel Method StrengthsWeaknesses  Easily grasped by participants  ‘Intellectual Spaghetti’  Stimulates complex, systematic thinking  Results vary in consistency  Provides a clear visual map of complex interactions  Limited by knowledge and perceptions of participants  Flexibility for respondents  Information overload  Fast data collection  Complex and time consuming data analysis  No transcription of data required  Higher cost per respondent  Speculative nature of data

SCHOOL OFBUSINESS Conclusions Useful for exploring the potential outcomes of trends Output can be used to simulate strategies – allowing plans to be modified A combination of futures methods may be most appropriate e.g. brainstorming  delphi surveys  futures wheel mapping  cross impact analysis  scenario writing Futures wheel useful in adding conceptual and contextual richness to traditional quantitative methods

SCHOOL OFBUSINESS ENVISIONING SUSTAINABLE TOURISM FUTURES An Evaluation of the Futures Wheel Method Dr. Pierre Benckendorff School of Business James Cook University