Q1 Memory Update. DRAM Changes – 2 Copyright  2000-2004 | iSuppli Corporation | All Worldwide Rights Reserved | Confidential – Patents Pending Electronic.

Slides:



Advertisements
Similar presentations
Applied Market Intelligence Electric Vehicle Software European Commission Project: IPTS-2009-J04-17-NC JRC/IPTS EU is behind in deployment Future has risk.
Advertisements

Key Performance Indicators for the Junior Resource Sector: Q Update Prepared by Mike Doggett August 27, 2014.
Market-Based Management
Applied Market Intelligence Mobile Displays - Market and Technology Trends Vinita Jakhanwal Principal Analyst.
Economic Outlook for Consumers William Strauss Senior Economist and Economic Advisor Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago University of Illinois Center for.
SFF HDD and Flash Memories Coexistence or Competition? A Summary of IDEMA Symposium February 17, 2005 Westin Hotel, Santa Clara, CA Dr. Ed Grochowski DISKCON.
DE DIOS & ASSOCIATES Focused on our clients’ objectives DRAM MARKET UPDATE March /21/13 © 2013 DE DIOS & ASSOCIATES. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Reproduction.
Black-Scholes Energy, Inc. Eunice Chin, Cecilia Shi, Namgu Kim, Sebastian Sotelo FINC Fall 2013: Derivatives & Financial Markets Final Project.
Market-Based Management
Toshiba Corporation.. Semiconductor  A semiconductor is a material that has electrical conductivity between those of a conductor and an insulator. 
1 GLOBAL TRADE OVERVIEW Workshop Favignana, September, 2009 Audun Lem, FAO.
Supply Chain Risk Assessments Advances in quantitative methods.
Industrials Sector Jason Kraynak and Wade Guzdanski.
Confidential and Proprietary Information DDR333 – The New Wave Bill Gervasi Technology Analyst, Transmeta Corporation Chairman, JEDEC Memory Parametrics.
Financial Statement Analysis
Financial Statement Analysis
Small Form Factor Consumer Electronics Storage Pat O’Malley Sr. Vice President Consumer Electronics.
PDW Review Of ONN 12/12/2014. Summary Do Not Recommend Purchase at this time Place on “Watch List” and wait for better entry price (
Don’t Forget the Memory… Dean Klein, VP Memory System Development Micron Technology, Inc.
HDD Market Update: Steadier, Simpler Times Ahead, or More of the Same? November 7, 2007 IDEMA Analyst Breakfast.
STEC, Inc. (Nasdaq:STEC) Company Highlights ●Leading provider of customized Flash memory and DRAM solutions ●Proprietary technologies focused.
CONFIDENTIAL Key Trends, Issues, and Opportunities for SPE’s Mid-Range Plan August 27, 2010.
Digital Planet 2010 The Global Information Economy October 2010.
Recommendation: Buy Intel (INTC). Key Investment Points Appears to be undervalued compared to the market Strong Research & Development High Dividend.90.
Economic Assessment Wade Rousse Economic Outreach Specialist Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago IASET Chicago, IL December 12, 2008.
Manufacturing Bulletin Q Presentation : Media Briefing 8 December 2011 By Dr Iraj Abedian Pan-African Investment & Research Services(Pty) Ltd.
Information Technology Finance 724/824 SIM Class Christopher Moran Suresh Ramasubramanian Sean Ramsey.
Part II: Business Environment Introduction to Business 3e 4 Copyright © 2004 South-Western. All rights reserved. Assessing Economic Conditions.
Financial Statement Analysis. Limitations of Financial Statement Analysis Differences in accounting methods between companies sometimes make comparisons.
1 Consumer Staples Stock Recommendation Mark Bauer and Joe Burch May 15, 2007.
DE DIOS & ASSOCIATES Focused on our clients’ objectives DRAM MARKET UPDATE April /11/13 © 2013 DE DIOS & ASSOCIATES. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Reproduction.
Esther Spanjer, M-Systems. Competing Technologies: HDD vs Flash Flash Advantages Volume/GB Mass/GB Shock resistance Power Consumption HDD Advantages Total.
Semiconductor Revenue Forecast: Recovery Gains Momentum in 2003
3Q03 Semiconductor and Electronics Manufacturing Forecast San Jose, California 8 July 2003 Presenters: Klaus-Dieter Rinnen Mary Olsson Jim Hines Jim Walker.
Advanced Reticle Symposium 2003 San Jose, CA 23 June 2003 Photomask Market Outlook: Growth Returns Klaus-Dieter Rinnen Managing Vice President Manufacturing.
What is Lenovo Goal Mission & Vision Business Groups SWOT Analysis
By; Kigozi Jimmy Andrew Graduate School of International Studies, Korea University
Seagate Technology PLC Kyle Gesuelli. Which securities fit with the portfolio’s strategy and make sense in the current market? STX comprises largest loss.
Q Earnings Presentation Presented By: Amir Hudda, CEO David Ehrhardt, CFO February 7, 2007.
Global Genset Battery Market WEBSITE Single User License: US$ 2500 No of Pages: 55 Corporate User License: US$ 4000.
Christian Müller Industry Analyst 23 rd October 2003 The European In-Car Infotainment Market © 2003 Frost & Sullivan. All rights reserved. This document.
M Semiconductor Manufacturing - Emerging Non-Volatile Memory Bharat Book Bureau.
2Q03 Semiconductor Capital Equipment Update: Still Positive for 2003 Host:Klaus-Dieter Rinnen Speakers:Richard Gordon Jim Hines Jim Walker SCEM Telebriefing.
Kingston Technology ASBIS “Horké” serverové setkaní
Renesas Technology America
Global CMOS Image Sensor Market Report 2016
© 2016 Global Market Insights, Inc. USA. All Rights Reserved Fuel Cell Market size worth $25.5bn by 2024 Universal Flash Storage Market.
DRAM MARKET UPDATE November 2014
DRAM MARKET UPDATE September 2014
© 2016 Global Market Insights, Inc. USA. All Rights Reserved Fuel Cell Market size worth $25.5bn by 2024 Semiconductor Memory Market.
Information Storage and Spintronics 09
DRAM MARKET UPDATE October 2014
DRAM MARKET UPDATE November 2013
Electronic Components Market Trend ZNS Ljubljana October 2018
Semiconductor Manufacturing: Positive Growth in 2003
DRAM MARKET UPDATE February 2015
2.C Memory GCSE Computing Langley Park School for Boys.
DRAM MARKET UPDATE February 2013
DRAM MARKET UPDATE October 2012
August /29/12 © 2012 DE DIOS & ASSOCIATES. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Reproduction prohibited without prior permission.
June /14/12 © 2012 DE DIOS & ASSOCIATES. ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. Reproduction prohibited without prior permission.
DRAM MARKET UPDATE August 2013
DRAM MARKET UPDATE July 2013
DRAM MARKET UPDATE November 2012
DRAM MARKET UPDATE January 2013
Non-Volatile Memory Market Industry Survey, Growth, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2023 PREPARED BY Market Research Future (Part of Wantstats Research.
Information Storage and Spintronics 08
ECC Memory Market Research Report – Global Forecast till 2025.
Flash Memory Market Research Report By Forecast to 2023 Industry Survey, Growth, Competitive Landscape and Forecasts to 2023 PREPARED BY Market Research.
Presentation transcript:

Q1 Memory Update

DRAM Changes – 2 Copyright  | iSuppli Corporation | All Worldwide Rights Reserved | Confidential – Patents Pending Electronic Equipment Factory Production  Consumption of end market equipment will define semiconductor growth in 2005  Mobil handset and PC consume in excess of 32 percent of all semiconductor components  Consumer Electronics remains fastest growing end use application at 12.5 percent Equipment Drives Growth Key Equipment Categories Source – iSuppli Corporation

DRAM Changes – 3 Copyright  | iSuppli Corporation | All Worldwide Rights Reserved | Confidential – Patents Pending Semiconductor Cycles Remain Alive  Industry analysts view 2005 significantly different based on market applications  Amplitude of cycles may be declining but frequency of “boom” and “bust” cycles continues to shorten  iSuppli forecast for 2005 is 6.2% 2005 iSuppli Forecast Source – iSuppli Corporation

DRAM Changes – 4 Copyright  | iSuppli Corporation | All Worldwide Rights Reserved | Confidential – Patents Pending Memory Market Forecast NAND Flash is the fastest growing segment : Opportunity  DRAM: $27B (2.2% over 2004 CAGR 04-09: 5.0%)  NAND: $7.1B (7% over 2004 CAGR 04-09: 16%)  NOR: $8.2B (-0.5% over 2004 CAGR 04-09: -2.2%) Source – iSuppli Corporation

DRAM Changes – 5 Copyright  | iSuppli Corporation | All Worldwide Rights Reserved | Confidential – Patents Pending DRAM and NAND Bit Shipment & ASP Growths  NAND Bit Growth will slow down to DRAM level by 2009  NAND ASP decline will be more severe than DRAM ASP by 2009 Source – iSuppli Corporation

DRAM Changes – 6 Copyright  | iSuppli Corporation | All Worldwide Rights Reserved | Confidential – Patents Pending Worldwide DRAM Market Forecast  DRAM revenue will increase slightly in 2005 and will decline in 2006 Source – iSuppli Corporation

DRAM Changes – 7 Copyright  | iSuppli Corporation | All Worldwide Rights Reserved | Confidential – Patents Pending 12-Inch DRAM Lines Are Overtaking 8-Inch  12-inch wafers will represent 55% of worldwide DRAM supply in 2006  Price decline will be significant in 2006  Most new 12-inch fabs from tier-one DRAM suppliers will produce NAND as well as DRAM 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% Percentage $0.000 $0.005 $0.010 $0.015 $0.020 $0.025 $ Inch PortionLess Than or Equal To 0.95-MicronMbit Price Source – iSuppli Corporation

DRAM Changes – 8 Copyright  | iSuppli Corporation | All Worldwide Rights Reserved | Confidential – Patents Pending TAM: Technology and density  2005 is the cross-over year for 512Mb and DDR2  DDR2 and 512Mb premiums will be limited in 1H 2005  DDR3 adoption will be faster than 1Gb density unlike 512Mb & DDR2,where 512Mb was faster.

DRAM Changes – 9 Copyright  | iSuppli Corporation | All Worldwide Rights Reserved | Confidential – Patents Pending TAM: DRAM Modules  Worldwide DRAM module market 2005: $21.7B  OEM modules represent 58% of the total market followed by white box (29%) and upgrade modules (13%)  Major module density will still be 256MB in 2005 and 2006  FBDIMM will capture 13% (2006) and 40% (2007) of total OEM server segment

DRAM Changes – 10 Copyright  | iSuppli Corporation | All Worldwide Rights Reserved | Confidential – Patents Pending Commodity and Legacy DRAM Margin Trend  128Mb SDRAM and 256Mb DDR are profitable DRAM  Decreasing legacy SDRAM prices squeezed margins during the quarter  iSuppli believes that 16Mb SDRAM profit margin has been negative since Q Source – iSuppli Corporation

DRAM Changes – 11 Copyright  | iSuppli Corporation | All Worldwide Rights Reserved | Confidential – Patents Pending Structural Change in Memory Market Two groups of suppliers  Product Diversification Group - Samsung, Hynix, Micron, Infineon  Commitment and Focus Group - Taiwan Memory Suppliers and Japanese Memory Suppliers - Taiwan Memory Suppliers : Foundry allocation Standard Deviation of OP margins (01-05E) – Samsung: 5.1% – Infineon: 12.8% – ProMos:28.6% – Micron: 29.6% – Hynix: 32.6% – Powerchip 35.6% – Nanya:39.9% Source – iSuppli Corporation & financial reports

DRAM Changes – 12 Copyright  | iSuppli Corporation | All Worldwide Rights Reserved | Confidential – Patents Pending DRAM Suppliers’ 2004 Operational and Financial Risk 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% 45% 50% 0%10%20%30%40%50%60% Samsung Powerchip Micron Infineon Nanya Hynix (85%,33%) DRAM OP Margin Debt/Equity Ratio Promos Elpida  Samsung’s debt is nearly zero in 2004  Hynix debt-to-equity is 85% Source – iSuppli Corporation & financial reports

DRAM Changes – 13 Copyright  | iSuppli Corporation | All Worldwide Rights Reserved | Confidential – Patents Pending Suppliers Growth Risk  Samsung & Infineon: Big market shares and growing fast  Promos & Powerchip: Small market shares but growing fast  Hynix & Micron: Big market shares but growing slowly  Diversifying products  Elpida & Nanya: Small market shares and growing slowly  Stuck 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% Current Market Share Samsung Infineon Hynix Micron Powerchip ProMos Nanya Elpida Current Growth Potential Growth Decreasing Growth Stuck Indexed Bit Growth Rate 1.0 = 45% 3 yr CAGR Avg share Source – iSuppli Corporation

DRAM Changes – 14 Copyright  | iSuppli Corporation | All Worldwide Rights Reserved | Confidential – Patents Pending Handset Memory Update (Working RAM+Flash)  DRAM penetration is still limited in handsets as OEMs are still not sure about LPDRAM demand.  iSuppli expects that LPDRAM demand will increase starting from 256Mb density. (11% in 2004  37% in 2009 of total RAM market in handset)  NAND revenue will still represent small percentage of total market for Flash in handsets  Decreasing NOR price makes OEMs hesitate to covert to NAND  NOR + DRAM solution will be popular in the near future Source – iSuppli Corporation

DRAM Changes – 15 Copyright  | iSuppli Corporation | All Worldwide Rights Reserved | Confidential – Patents Pending Near Term Market Forecast  Q  Near term market condition is still negative. However,prices will rebound during the second quarter as suppliers will resist prices being under cost. 512Mb DDR2 prices will hit the bottom in the third quarter  256Mb DDR will have very high price pressure (could drop below $2)  DDR2 and 512Mb premiums will be reduced  2H 2005  DDR2 and 512Mb mix will increase overall 256Mb equiv ASP from Q2 ASP  Suppliers’ 90nm migration and PC demand is the key to the market growth

DRAM Changes – 16 Copyright  | iSuppli Corporation | All Worldwide Rights Reserved | Confidential – Patents Pending Data Flash (NAND) Market Update  Data Flash market revenue will increase by 8% to $7.2B in 2005  Upside potential (Optimistic Scenario : $8.2B)  Unit shipments will increase by 120% - 140% in 2005 Source – iSuppli Corporation

DRAM Changes – 17 Copyright  | iSuppli Corporation | All Worldwide Rights Reserved | Confidential – Patents Pending Data Flash TAM by density  Major density is moving quickly from 1Gb to 8Gb in 2005 Source – iSuppli Corporation

DRAM Changes – 18 Copyright  | iSuppli Corporation | All Worldwide Rights Reserved | Confidential – Patents Pending Flash Storage Card Market Forecast by Form Factor and Density  SD Card form factor (Mini-SD & Micro-SD) will prevail in the market while CF will decrease significantly  256MB and 512MB will represent over 50% of card market  44% of card market is still 128MB density and below (Mainly Bundled Market) Source – iSuppli Corporation

DRAM Changes – 19 Copyright  | iSuppli Corporation | All Worldwide Rights Reserved | Confidential – Patents Pending Data Flash Demand 2009 Flash Storage Card Demand 2005 Flash Storage Card Demand  Flash storage card will still dominate data flash consumption.  Handsets will overtake DSC in card demand Source – iSuppli Corporation

DRAM Changes – 20 Copyright  | iSuppli Corporation | All Worldwide Rights Reserved | Confidential – Patents Pending USB Flash Drive Market Forecast by density  512MB and higher density USB drives will represent over 36% of total USB flash drive market  In 2006, over 60% of USB drive market will be 512MB and higher density  Unlike the Flash storage card market, low density USB drive is diminishing rapidly Source – iSuppli Corporation

DRAM Changes – 21 Copyright  | iSuppli Corporation | All Worldwide Rights Reserved | Confidential – Patents Pending Data Flash in Handset Market Different Types will exist  MDOC/One NAND:  Discrete NAND/MCP: &  Flash Storage Cards: Source – iSuppli Corporation Source – MobileReview.Com Source – iSuppli Corporation

DRAM Changes – 22 Copyright  | iSuppli Corporation | All Worldwide Rights Reserved | Confidential – Patents Pending Flash Revenue Market Shares in Handset  Intel and Spansion hold 52% of the market for flash in handset.  Total market for Flash in handset in 2004 including MCP was $6.1B  NAND revenue is expected to grow by 100% in 2005 Source – iSuppli Corporation

DRAM Changes – 23 Copyright  | iSuppli Corporation | All Worldwide Rights Reserved | Confidential – Patents Pending Mini HDD vs Flash  HDD have at least over three times cost advantage on a rolling yearly basis, 2004: 4GB HDD ~ $96 75 vs Flash 4GB ~ $ : 6 GB HDD ~$106 vs Flash 6 GB ~ $ : 8 GB HDD ~$107 vs Flash 8 GB ~$310  Battery power (100x), drop shock(10x) are distinct disadvantages over Flash  For lower density,Flash will be used while HDD will be mainly used for higher density applications in consumer application areas.