Climate Mission Outcome A predictive understanding of the global climate system on time scales of weeks to decades with quantified uncertainties sufficient.

Slides:



Advertisements
Similar presentations
WCRP Overview. Two Problems in Climate Risk Management 1.Uncertainty in the projected impacts The British, he thought, must be gluttons for satire: even.
Advertisements

Planning for NOAA’s Climate Interests
THE USE OF REMOTE SENSING DATA/INFORMATION AS PROXY OF WEATHER AND CLIMATE IN THE GREATER HORN OF AFRICA Gilbert O Ouma IGAD Climate Applications and Prediction.
CMIP5: Overview of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5
Carbon Cycle and Ecosystems Important Concerns: Potential greenhouse warming (CO 2, CH 4 ) and ecosystem interactions with climate Carbon management (e.g.,
David M. Legler U.S. CLIVAR Office U.S. Climate Variability and Predictability Program usclivar.org Strategic Themes for US CLIVAR.
NOAA Climate Program Chester J. Koblinsky Director, NOAA Climate Program Office The 29 th Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop University of Wisconsin,
The Ocean’s Role in Climate Change. Responding to the Kyoto Protocol Climate Change Action Fund (CCAF) Initiatives Reduce greenhouse gas emissions. Reduce.
Moving to Horizontal Connections: Design Concept 2 Impacts: 1. What are the critical interactions among resources (and resource management) that will.
Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Services, Products, Partnerships, Potential for the PRIDE Alaska Coastal Climatologies Wind/Wave Workshop Jim Laver August.
Ocean Research Priorities Plan Near-Term Priority Abrupt Climate Change and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) Anticipated Outcomes.
1 Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Review June 30 - July 2, 2009.
Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Review June 30 - July 2, 2009 Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Review June 30 - July 2, 2009.
SOUTHEAST NATURAL RESOURCE LEADERSHIP GROUP ADAPTING TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN THE SOUTHEAST Agency Presentation National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Climate System Observations and Prediction Experiment (COPE) Task Force for Seasonal Prediction.
SUMMARY OF THE MESA MODELING RELATED ACTIVITIES DISCUSSED IN VMP8.
US CLIVAR Themes. Guided by a set of questions that will be addressed/assessed as a concluding theme action by US CLIVAR Concern a broad topical area.
Potential Predictability of Drought and Pluvial Conditions over the Central United States on Interannual to Decadal Time Scales Siegfried Schubert, Max.
The Climate Prediction Project Global Climate Information for Regional Adaptation and Decision-Making in the 21 st Century.
CORDEX Scope, or What is CORDEX?  Provide a set of regional climate scenarios (including uncertainties) covering the period , for the majority.
Barcelona, 2015 Ocean prediction activites at BSC-IC3 Virginie Guemas and the Climate Forecasting Unit 9 February 2015.
Climate Prediction Program for the Americas (CPPA) Outline : - CPPA background - major past and ongoing activities and achievements - opportunities/advances.
Characterizing Future Climate – Information Needs.
International CLIVAR Working Group for Seasonal-to- Interannual Prediction (WGSIP) Ben Kirtman (Co-Chair WGSIP) George Mason University Center for Ocean-Land-Atmosphere.
Report on March Crystal City Workshop to Identify Grand Challenges in Climate Change Science By its cochair- Robert Dickinson For the 5 Sept
2007 Climate Workshop NWS Eastern Region and Southern Region Chet Ropelewski Climate Assessment and Services Division NOAA Climate Program Office (CPO)
CDC Cover. NOAA Lab roles in CCSP Strategic Plan for the U.S. Climate Change Science Program: Research Elements Element 3. Atmospheric Composition Aeronomy.
Identifying Grand Challenges in Climate Change Research: Guiding DOE’s Strategic Planning: Report on the DOE/BERAC workshop March Crystal City For.
Modelling Theme White Paper G. Flato, G. Meehl and C. Jakob.
NOAA’s Seasonal Hurricane Forecasts: Climate factors influencing the 2006 season and a look ahead for Eric Blake / Richard Pasch / Chris Landsea(NHC)
NACLIM CT1/CT3 1 st CT workshop April 2013 Hamburg (DE) Johann Jungclaus.
World Climate Research Programme Climate Information for Decision Making Ghassem R. Asrar Director, WCRP.
Washington, DC 1 ESIP Federation 2008 Winter Meeting ESIP Federation Winter Meeting January 9-10, 2008 Dr. Chet Koblinsky Director, NOAA Climate Program.
CPPA Past/Ongoing Activities - Ocean-Atmosphere Interactions - Address systematic ocean-atmosphere model biases - Eastern Pacific Investigation of Climate.
Science, Society, & Outcomes: Building a New Basis for Meteorology and Climate Science by Michael M. Crow Professor of Science Policy, School of International.
Why Does NOAA Need a Climate & Ecosystem Demonstration Project in the California Current System? Capabilities and Drivers La Jolla, CA 6 June, 2005.
Components of the Global Climate Change Process IPCC AR4.
Research Needs for Decadal to Centennial Climate Prediction: From observations to modelling Julia Slingo, Met Office, Exeter, UK & V. Ramaswamy. GFDL,
NOAA Research Overview: Climate Variability NOAA Climate Research: Climate Variability Drought in Great Plains, ca California floods during 1998.
Dynamical Prediction of Indian Monsoon Rainfall and the Role of Indian Ocean K. Krishna Kumar CIRES Visiting Fellow, University of Colorado, Boulder Dynamical.
Gary Jedlovec Roadmap to Success transitioning unique NASA data and research technologies to operations.
UNCLASS1 Dr. Gene Whitney Assistant Director for Environment Office of Science and Technology Policy Executive Office of the President WISP Meeting - July.
NOAA Intra-Seasonal to Interannual Prediction (ISIP) and Climate Prediction Program for Americas (CPPA) Jin Huang NOAA Office of Global Programs November.
1 Proposal for a Climate-Weather Hydromet Test Bed “Where America’s Climate and Weather Services Begin” Louis W. Uccellini Director, NCEP NAME Forecaster.
El Niño Forecasting Stephen E. Zebiak International Research Institute for climate prediction The basis for predictability Early predictions New questions.
CIRES-CDC Institutional Partnership Western Water Assessment Review Randall M. Dole, Director Climate Diagnostics Center September 2001.
MERGE 5 years from now MORE OF THE SAME OR MORE THAN THAT?
Multi-Model Ensembles for Climate Attribution Arun Kumar Climate Prediction Center NCEP/NOAA Acknowledgements: Bhaskar Jha; Marty Hoerling; Ming Ji & OGP;
Exploring the Possibility to Forecast Annual Mean Temperature with IPCC and AMIP Runs Peitao Peng Arun Kumar CPC/NCEP/NWS/NOAA Acknowledgements: Bhaskar.
David M. Legler U.S. CLIVAR Office U.S. Climate Variability and Predictability Program usclivar.org CLIVAR Welcome Climate Diagnostics.
National Centers for Environmental Prediction: “Where America’s Climate, Weather and Ocean Services Begin” An Overview.
1 Symposium on the 50 th Anniversary of Operational Numerical Weather Prediction Dr. Jack Hayes Director, Office of Science and Technology NOAA National.
Transitioning unique NASA data and research technologies to operations Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Project Future Directions.
Climate Prediction Center: Challenges and Needs Jon Gottschalck and Arun Kumar with contributions from Dave DeWitt and Mike Halpert NCEP Production Review.
Metrics and MODIS Diane Wickland December, Biology/Biogeochemistry/Ecosystems/Carbon Science Questions: How are global ecosystems changing? (Question.
26-28 July 2006US CLIVAR Summit -- Breckenridge, CO PPAI PPAI Concluding Report Proposed focus: DROUGHT ENSOExtreme Events Decadal Variability MJO Nowcasting.
NAME SWG th Annual NOAA Climate Diagnostics and Prediction Workshop State College, Pennsylvania Oct. 28, 2005.
Climate Prediction and Products Breakout CTB Meeting November 10, 2015.
Long-lead streamflow forecasts: 2. An approach based on ensemble climate forecasts Andrew W. Wood, Dennis P. Lettenmaier, Alan.F. Hamlet University of.
Climate Prediction: Products, Research, Outreach Briefing for NOAA’s Science Advisory Board March 19, 2002 National Weather Service Climate Prediction.
RAL, 2012, May 11 Research behaviour Martin Juckes, 11 May, 2012.
The NOAA Climate Program: Research and Climate Services
Challenges of Seasonal Forecasting: El Niño, La Niña, and La Nada
Drought Monitoring and Forecasting Update on CPC Activities
GFDL Climate Model Status and Plans for Product Generation
CLIVAR International Climate of the 20th Century (C20C) Project
Michel Rixen, WCRP Joint Planning Staff
Beyond
CLIVAR Report to WOAP4 Detlef Stammer.
Presentation transcript:

Climate Mission Outcome A predictive understanding of the global climate system on time scales of weeks to decades with quantified uncertainties sufficient for making informed and reasoned decisions (Criteria for success: progress measured by indicators of predictive understanding and skill scores) Overview of Climate Predictions and Projections Program

Climate Improved intraseasonal to seasonal to decadal forecasts Scenarios for future climate mitigation and adaptation studies Assessments of potential for abrupt changes - surprises Utilization of Earth System models in expanding product suite Water resource & drought forecasts including nutrient runoff Climate – related health and disease forecasts Projections of sea level changes Ecosystems Ecological assessments and predictions from climate change Fisheries productivity forecasts that incorporate the effects of climate Improved assessments of sea level change on coastal resources and ecosystems Forecasts and mitigation strategies related to air/water quality and quantity in coastal zone Weather and Water Improved day forecasts Regional and continental scale air-quality and atmospheric chemistry predictions Improved forecasts for water resources (droughts, floods) including interactions with estuaries and coasts Future New and Improved Products (preliminary modeling work going on for most of these already)

Systematic Research forecasts and applications (Research PMs) establish systematic research multi-model SI prediction activity establish multi-model Hydrological prediction system Test application models – drought, fire, water Improve consolidation tools Operational Forecasts Test Bed - transition to operations Multi-model-based predictability studies Predictability studies Experimental predictions Studies supporting process research Data Distribution capability Model & Data Assimilation System Development – in Environmental Modeling Program Process research, hypothesis testing and diagnostic studies Targeted efforts for improving climate models (CPTs, parameterizations,…) Field experiments in support of model improvements & CPTs global tropical interactions with new focus on Indo-Pacific and Atlantic regions Monsoon related studies Emerging applications (coastal ecosystems; air quality; fisheries,…) New and Improved ProductsInformation Products Routine Attribution reports Functional Structure of Predictions and Projections Program (Seasonal to Interannual Component Shown) Observations, reanalyses, forcings research

–Develop a (community) research strategy (FY06/Q2) –Improved dynamical prediction models –Enhanced use of ensemble information from a single model –Multi-model ensembles –Improved empirical prediction tools –Improvements in consolidation procedures –Improved SST predictions –Climate Nowcasts (Dynamical OCN) –Predictability beyond ENSO SSTs What can lead to improvements in S/I forecasts - our strategy

Pink: Operational Forecasts (avg. score ~ 17) Blue: Objective consolidation forecast tool (avg. score~23) A Number of Approaches can Improve Skill Scores: Example - Objective Consolidation Tool

Objective Consolidation Tool Empirical Methods OCNCFS Research Foci Dynamical OCN Multimodel CDC/IRI/… Objective Consolidation Tool Operational SI Forecasts/Skill Research SI Forecasts/Skill Assessment Proposed Structure for Improving Skill of SI Forecasts: Metric for incorporation into operations: improves skill over period of operational forecasts

Priorities Next 1-5 years – resulting from our & CLIVAR planning – in 5 year research plans - NCEP needs? Seasonal to Interannual (working towards regional capabilities) 1.Improve skill of SI predictions Establish systematic community based multi-model forecasting capability/infrastructure Incorporate impacts of Indo-Pacific and Atlantic SST anomalies Develop dynamical understanding of trends – incorporate in forecasts 2.Implement routine attribution capability 3.Develop seasonal hydrological forecasting capability – (a national drought prediction experiment) 4.Predictive understanding of influence of climate on environment (a new focus) Coastal ecosystems and fisheries regimes Decadal to Centennial- working towards regional capabilities where possible 1.Develop experimental decadal trends forecasts resulting from predictive understanding of anthropogenic and natural variations (Atlantic focus) – also links directly to SI predictions 2.Attribution of climate of 20 th C to natural versus anthropogenic influences 3.Understanding past decadal variability & abrupt changes 4.Reduce uncertainty in future projections 5.Implement earth system modeling capability Intraseasonal Forecasting 1.Improve week2 skill scores 2.Develop capability to predict extremes for weeks 2,3,4. 3.Predictive understanding of climate on statistics of extremes (hurricanes & others)

Uses of Multi-model Ensembles Research - forecasts and “AMIP” runs - A distributed activity Climate Testbed - centralized activity Application models: hydrology, etc. Attribution and predictability studies Research forecasts Operations The above need to be more systematic and be linked to other national/international activities COPES CliPAS (APEC-Korea) C20C runs others

MM Ensemble for Attribution and Predictability Assessments What NOAA supported activities currently exist –Seasonal Diagnostics Consortium Continuously updated AMIP runs forced with global SSTs. Participating models are from NCEP, GFDL, CDC (running CCM3), IRI, GMAO, and ECPC Although updating the AMIP runs is a distributed activity, centralized collection of data and display of basic results is done at CPC –C20C simulations with different natural and anthropogenic forcings –Need to formalize predictability studies and link to NCPO research programs

MM Ensemble for Predictions What NOAA supported activities currently exist: –MM ensemble predictions at IRI (based on tier-2 approach with skill assessments for participating models obtained from AMIP simulations) –Empirical-Dynamical SI prediction System at CDC (based on a set of tier-2 AMIP model runs) –Both are distributed approaches. Both are pragmatic in the sense that there is no consistent set of hindcasts. There are strong ties with the multi-model attribution and predictability assessment activities. –Need to have a formal comparison of these forecasts with the operational approaches

MM Ensembles for Predictions: Future What more is desirable –A multi-model tier-1 prediction capability that would include several national coupled models –A consensus among participating entities as to what is required to achieve a 1-tier multi-model ensemble goal, e.g., What should be the length for the hindcasts? Need for a consistent ODA? Minimum size of ensemble for each coupled model? Distributed or centralized activity? What gets implemented on Test Bed? –What can be achieved under the available resource? And if enough resources are not available, does meeting requirements halfway still beneficial (e.g., reduced length of hindcasts)? OR it HAS to be “an all or nothing approach.” –MM for regional downscaling (S-I, CC scenarios) –Linking to application models, e.g., hydrological predictions