Enabling Climate Impact Assessment in Wisconsin Chris Kucharik and Dan Vimont The Wisconsin Initiative on Climate Change Impacts (WICCI)

Acknowledgements: David Lorenz (Center for Climatic Research) Michael Notaro (Center for Climatic Research) Chris Kucharik, Steve Vavrus, Kathleen Holman Wisconsin State Climatology Office WICCI (numerous members)

Wisconsin Initiative on Climate Change Impacts WICCI: Partnership between the UW Nelson Institute for Environmental Studies and the Wisconsin DNR, with other state groups Goal: Assess and anticipate climate change impacts on specific Wisconsin natural resources, ecosystems and regions; evaluate potential effects on industry, agriculture, tourism, and other human activities; and develop and recommend adaptation strategies…

Context: WICCI has released two major results relating to assessment of climate change impacts in Wisconsin: A gridded historical dataset for assessing past climate changes Regional projections of the range of possible 21 st century climate change in Wisconsin These data provide a foundation that enables resource managers and policy makers to assess vulnerability of Wisconsin’s natural and built environment and explore possible adaptation measures

Future Climate Projections

Mitigation: Necessary to avoid dangerous climate change Adaptation: Climate change is inevitable; Adaptation needed to minimize impacts Future Global Temperature: Temperature will increase by about 1.6°C in the next 40yr, 2°-6°C by the end of the century. Global Climate Change

Future Climate Change: How do we project what will happen? Global Climate Models Divide the world into boxes, solve equations that govern weather / climate on a discrete grid. Apply forcing based on a “storyline” of future emissions

Global Climate Change Downscaling: Focus global projections to a scale relevant to climate impacts. WICCI Climate Working Group / Focus on Energy Thanks to D. Lorenz

Future Climate Projections: Global Climate Model data from the IPCC AR4 All models are used, to obtain a range of projections Downscaling rooted in the same COOP data used to generate historical data Downscaling methodology trained on observations Downscaling methodology resolves the range of probable climate change Range is essential for impact assessment

Annual Temperature Change Wisconsin will warm by 4° – 9°F by mid- 21 st century

Winter Temperature Change Warming is most pronounced in winter: 5° – 11°F by mid-21 st century

Spring Temperature Change Spring: 3° – 9°F by mid-21 st century

Summer Temperature Change Warming is least pronounced in Summer: 3° – 8°F by mid-21 st century

Fall Temperature Change Autumn: 3.5° – 9.5°F by mid-21 st century

Location of the “Tension Zone” Mean Apr-May-Jun 13.5ºC Isotherm

The Tension Zone: Present Day

The Tension Zone: mid-21 st Century

The Tension Zone: late-21 st Century

Number of >90° Days, <0° Nights More “very hot” days, less “very cold” days

Winter Precipitation Change Robust increase in Winter Precipitation (0- 40%). Models do not agree on Summer: (- 20% to +15%)

Intense Precipitation Events Intense precipitation events become even more intense

Ways to use the data: 1.Explore vulnerabilities by exploring WICCI CWG website: 2.Use Historical data to refine sensitivity / vulnerability / stressors / thresholds etc. 2.Data can be used in numerous ways… Classical Risk Assessment Spatio-temporal data Rescale historical time series

Actual Probability Distributions Adaption Climate SpaceProbability Present Climate Predicted Climate Impact threshold Climate Space Probability How to implement: Identify threshold / response surface Define present day risk with present day probability distribution Compare future risk with future probability distribution Explore how adaptation strategies can impact risk

Global Climate Change Downscaling: Focus global projections to a scale relevant to climate impacts. WICCI Climate Working Group / Focus on Energy Thanks to D. Lorenz

Spatial and / or temporal data

Rescale a historical time series MaxT (e.g.)Probability Present Climate MaxT (e.g.) Probability Why to use this approach: You’ve already done some analysis with historical weather data Impact is “event-like” Covariates are important (e.g. warm, wet, and windy on a given day) Policy decisions can be compared to historical decisions

Conclusions: WICCI has released two major data sets relating to assessment of climate change impacts in Wisconsin: Wisconsin has warmed by 1°-2°F since 1950 Wisconsin will warm by 4°-9°F by mid-21 st century Winter precipitation will increase by 0%-40% by mid-21 st century Extreme precipitation events will intensify by mid-21 st century

Conclusions: These data provide a foundation that enables natural resource managers to assess vulnerability of Wisconsin’s natural and built environment, and explore possible adaptation measures Data is ready and available for use in impact assessment:

Wisconsin Initiative on Climate Change Impacts WICCI: Partnership between the UW Nelson Institute for Environmental Studies and the Wisconsin DNR, with other state groups Goal: Assess and anticipate climate change impacts on specific Wisconsin natural resources, ecosystems and regions; evaluate potential effects on industry, agriculture, tourism, and other human activities; and develop and recommend adaptation strategies…

Photo credit: NOAA Circa 1930

Photo credit: NOAA Circa 2008

FAQ 1.3, Figure 1