California Energy Commission California Energy Demand Revised Electricity Forecast: Southern California Edison Planning Area December 17, 2015 Cary Garcia Demand Analysis Office 1

California Energy Commission Forecast Summary Planning area is now the SCE TAC area –Five climate zones Electricity consumption growth in the new mid case is lower than in CEDU 2014 because of new standards; offset somewhat by higher growth in number of households Sales and peak forecasts down more significantly because of higher PV adoption More growth in inland climate zones 2

California Energy Commission SCE Baseline Electricity Consumption New mid case grows by 0.95% per year , compared to 1.16% in CEDU 2014 mid case for planning area under old definition 3

California Energy Commission SCE Baseline Electricity Sales New mid case grows at 0.45% per year ( ) compared to 1.03% for CEDU 2014 mid case 4

California Energy Commission SCE Baseline Peak Demand New mid case more than 3,000 MW below CEDU 2014 mid case by

California Energy Commission SCE PV Energy Around 4,000 GWh difference between new mid case and CEDU 2014 mid case with old planning area definition 6

California Energy Commission SCE PV Peak Impacts CED 2015 Revised mid case corresponds to around 4,500 MW capacity in

California Energy Commission SCE Light-Duty EV Energy Corresponds to around 800,000 EVs in 2026 in the mid case 8

California Energy Commission SCE Committed Efficiency Around 17,000 GWh savings from codes and standards in

California Energy Commission Committed Efficiency Programs: EM&V Adjustment Net effect: +18 GWh in 2015, -35 GWh in

California Energy Commission Additional Impacts Climate change –200 GWh in 2026 in mid case, 250 GWh in high case –175 MW in 2026 in mid case, 280 MW in high case Electrification: 400 GWh in 2026 in mid case, 650 GWh in high case 75 MW of demand-side DR in

California Energy Commission Growth in Electricity Consumption by Climate Zone, Climate Zone L.A. Metro Big Creek West Big Creek East NortheastEastern High Case 1.03%1.04%1.29%1.02%1.40% Mid Case 0.67%0.74%1.11%0.65%1.16% Low Case 0.23%0.14%0.81%0.25%0.83%

California Energy Commission Growth in Peak Demand by Climate Zone, Climate Zone L.A. Metro Big Creek West Big Creek East NortheastEastern High Case 0.36%0.63%1.82%1.11%1.43% Mid Case -0.23%0.03%1.28%0.55%0.77% Low Case -0.90%-0.79%0.60%-0.07%-0.04%

California Energy Commission AAEE Savings: Peak MW 14 YearHigh-LowMid-LowMid-MidMid-HighHigh-Low ,0061,1371, ,6311,6582,1282,4662,522

California Energy Commission AAEE Savings: GWh 15 YearHigh-LowMid-LowMid-MidMid-HighHigh-Low ,1863,2204,2064,9604, ,5356,5468,65210,20210,297

California Energy Commission Impact of AAEE on SCE Baseline Mid Case Service Territory Sales, 3 AAEE cases 16

California Energy Commission Impact of AAEE on SCE Baseline Mid Case Service Territory Peak, 3 AAEE cases 17