Wichita 2008 Review 2009 Forecast Rob Allison, Interim Director Center for Economic Development and Business Research W. Frank Barton School of Business.

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Presentation transcript:

Wichita 2008 Review 2009 Forecast Rob Allison, Interim Director Center for Economic Development and Business Research W. Frank Barton School of Business Wichita State University October 7, 2008

Slides are available for all of today’s presentations under the 2008 Economic Outlook Conference link.

Disconnect?

Topics include:  Economic growth  Inflation  Housing & construction  Manufacturing  Financial situation Wichita employment forecast for 2009 by industry sector.

Topics include:  Economic growth  Inflation  Housing & construction  Manufacturing  Financial situation Wichita employment forecast for 2009 by industry sector.

Percent Change (Real 2000$) Recession Data Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis U.S. Gross Domestic Product

Sufficient liquidity for business activities Appropriately tightening credit standards

Year-over-Year Percent Change July 2008 Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

Import Price Index Data Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Index Value

Data Source: CEDBR, Wichita State University

Wichita Personal Per Capita Income as a Percent of U.S. Wichita, $39,210 United State $38,564 Data Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

I. Production II. Trade, Transportation, Utilities III. Service IV. Government 2, , ,095

Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics Employment Earnings

I. Production Natural Resources, Mining, Construction Manufacturing II. Trade, Transportation and Utilities III. Service IV. Government

Months Supply Data Source: National Association of Realtors; South Central Kansas MLS * Ratio of active new home listings to new home sales, seasonally adjusted Inventory of Existing Homes Available for Sale *

Data Source: Wichita State University, Center For Real Estate, 2009 Wichita Housing Market Forecast * Year-over-year percentage change as measured using 4 th quarter values

 INTRUST Arena  WaterWalk  Cessna  Spirit  Sumner County casino  Via Christi hospital in west Wichita  Parkstone

I. Production Natural Resources, Mining, Construction Manufacturing Durable Goods Non-Durable Goods II. Trade, Transportation and Utilities III. Service IV. Government

Data Source: General Aviation Manufacturing Association Recession 4,272 Deliveries in 2007

Data Source: U.S. Department of Transportation, Research and Innovative Technology Administration, Airline Data and Statistics, Annual Air Carrier Traffic Statistics Revenue Passenger Ton-Miles in Billions Recession

I. Production II. Trade, Transportation and Utilities Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation, Warehousing, Utilities III. Service IV. Government

I. Production II. Trade, Transportation and Utilities III. Service Information Financial Activities Professional and Business Services Educational and Health Services Leisure and Hospitality Other Services IV. Government

I. Production II. Trade, Transportation and Utilities III. Service IV. Government

 Financial sector instability  Escalating energy prices  Further increases in core inflation  Workforce issues including prolonged work stoppages  And geopolitical shocks.

 Aircraft manufacturing order backlogs underlie the expectation of continued employment growth  Relative strength in Wichita’s housing market with consistent appreciation in home values  And, sufficient liquidity for regional business activities.

Wichita 2008 Review 2009 Forecast