Educational Attainment and Productivity Goals How many more degrees and how to get there October 9, 2012 Strategic Directions Committee Updated 10/8/12

Summary of presentation Educational attainment – the percentage of the population with a degree or credential Educational attainment – the percentage of the population with a degree or credential UNC role in meeting state attainment goals UNC role in meeting state attainment goals The right mix of degree areas and levels The right mix of degree areas and levels Measuring educational quality Measuring educational quality 10/9/20122

Goal-setting approaches Motivated by workforce demand (e.g., Georgetown Center for Education and the Workforce, Plato vs. Plumbers) Motivated by workforce demand (e.g., Georgetown Center for Education and the Workforce, Plato vs. Plumbers) Motivated by competitiveness nationally and internationally (e.g., Aim for high-performing states, Lumina Foundation) Motivated by competitiveness nationally and internationally (e.g., Aim for high-performing states, Lumina Foundation) 10/9/20123

How much education does North Carolina need? TargetUndergraduate (Degrees and Certificates) Attainment Status Quo, no growth, only population changes and expected migration patterns 51.4% Current Trajectory, depending on future enrollment decisions and academic policies 55-57% Top 5 Most Educated States (today) 61.5% Top 10 GDP Per Capita States (today) 58.3% Lumina’s “Big Goal”60% Georgetown University61% Oregon’s Goal80% 10/9/20124

States with the most productive economies tend to have highly educated populations (revised slide) StatePercentage with a Bachelor’s Degree or Higher National Rank, GDP per Capita Delaware29.41 Alaska28.42 Connecticut38.23 Wyoming25.14 Massachusetts42.45 New York34.96 New Jersey38.47 Virginia36.58 Washington32.29 Colorado Top 10 Average33.8 North Carolina /9/20125

How do we reconcile different projections? Projections from the same data suggest that from 1/3 to 2/3 of projected growth in jobs will require a postsecondary education. Projections from the same data suggest that from 1/3 to 2/3 of projected growth in jobs will require a postsecondary education. It depends on whether we expect changes in educational requirements over time. It depends on whether we expect changes in educational requirements over time. It also depends on whether the educational requirements currently assumed for occupations are what employers demand now. It also depends on whether the educational requirements currently assumed for occupations are what employers demand now. Industry mix based on past patterns or projected future trends. Industry mix based on past patterns or projected future trends. Projections do not assume any innovation – i.e., nascent, emerging industries are not part of the equation. Projections do not assume any innovation – i.e., nascent, emerging industries are not part of the equation. Sole proprietors / self-employed entrepreneurs are often excluded from data (typically derived from unemployment insurance filings). Sole proprietors / self-employed entrepreneurs are often excluded from data (typically derived from unemployment insurance filings). 10/9/20126

How do BLS data compare to reality nationally? 10/9/20127 Source: BLS, CPS, ACS, 2010

Don’t Overlook Graduate Education Investing in graduate education isn’t a particularly efficient strategy for moving the needle on attainment. Graduate education is an important investment in economic development (high- wage, high-skilled jobs, technological innovation). 10/9/20128

Interactive Model [DEMONSTRATE MODEL] Example – State goal: Top 5 most educated states = 61.5% Example – State goal: Top 5 most educated states = 61.5% State would increase annual undergraduate output by 5.2% (5,356 additional graduates) State would increase annual undergraduate output by 5.2% (5,356 additional graduates) – UNC share: Increase bachelor’s degrees by 2,000 degrees annually – Assumptions: same public-private split; same bachelor’s-associate distribution; same migration patterns Based on projected future degree growth, UNC can expect to meet perhaps 40% of this goal without additional actions. Based on projected future degree growth, UNC can expect to meet perhaps 40% of this goal without additional actions. This assumes all other states sit still. This assumes all other states sit still. 10/9/20129

With which students does UNC have an opportunity to move the needle? Increasing the flow into the system: Increasing the flow into the system: – High schools (first-time students) – Dual enrollment (e.g., early college high schools) – Other postsecondary institutions (transfers) – Stop-outs/non-completers – Military – Out-of-state recruitment – Closing gaps in college-going rates for low-income and underrepresented students Patching the leaks: Patching the leaks: – Graduation rates – Completion gaps for underrepresented students 10/9/201210

What are the policy levers? K12 projections and higher admission standards suggest slow-down of growth for first-time students. K12 projections and higher admission standards suggest slow-down of growth for first-time students. – And demographics of that growth are important. Community college enrollments growing. Many do not complete associate degree, and many degree recipients do not transfer. Community college enrollments growing. Many do not complete associate degree, and many degree recipients do not transfer. Potential to serve past non-completers and growing military and veteran populations. Potential to serve past non-completers and growing military and veteran populations. A 1-point rise in graduation rates will generate 500+ additional bachelor’s degrees annually. A 1-point rise in graduation rates will generate 500+ additional bachelor’s degrees annually. 10/9/201211

Four, Five, & Six Year Graduation Rates at Public Four Year Institutions Source: NCES, IPEDS 2010 Graduation Rate File; gr2010 Final Release Data File. Note: Figures aggregated for Postsecondary Title IV Degree-Granting Institutions in the 50 States and District of Columbia. 10/9/201212

Efficiency and effectiveness of degree production 10/9/201213

Efficiency improvements can also increase capacity and raise gains from educational attainment. Time to degree / semesters enrolled Time to degree / semesters enrolled Hours to degree Hours to degree Summer school access Summer school access 10/9/201214

Regardless of the attainment target, what is the right mix of degrees? How to determine the mix of programs? Needs of existing economy; what employers value now Needs of existing economy; what employers value now Needs of future economy; what business sees on the horizon Needs of future economy; what business sees on the horizon Mix of what? Program areas / subject matter Program areas / subject matter Skill sets Skill sets 10/9/201215

Employers Value Skills of Many Majors 16 Median Annual Wages by General Field of Study and Age (Includes Only Bachelor’s Degree Holders, Not Holders of Graduate/ Professional Degrees) STEM Health Business and Communications Psychology and Social Sciences Liberal Arts Education 10/9/2012 Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 American Community Survey (Public Use Microdata Sample) Age $

Responding to demographics is key to meeting attainment and workforce goals Fastest growing portion of the population is the least educated Fastest growing portion of the population is the least educated Gaps persist in student success for minority students in UNC Gaps persist in student success for minority students in UNC Transfer articulation and success is important strategic focus Transfer articulation and success is important strategic focus 10/9/201217

North Carolina Student Pipeline by Race, 2010 Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, 2010 Census. Common Core of Data (CCD), "State Dropout and Completion Data File", v.1a NCES, IPEDS Fall 2010 Enrollment File; ef2010a Final Release Data File. NCES, IPEDS Completions File; c2011_a Early Release Data File Downloaded /9/201218

Focusing on educational quality Quality measures: Quality measures: – Workforce outcomes – Licensure pass rates – Graduate school access Other approaches to measuring quality Other approaches to measuring quality 10/9/201219