Enabling Successful Services and Applications ITU Telecom World 2003 Geneva Switzerland Forum Session BUS 2, 13 October 2003

Introduction Technological innovations in ICT have empowered consumers. Technological innovations in ICT have empowered consumers. Competitive initiatives provide greater choices. Competitive initiatives provide greater choices. Converging technologies and markets place greater emphasis on techniques that add value. Converging technologies and markets place greater emphasis on techniques that add value. Despite the dotcom meltdown the Internet has triggered substantial changes. Despite the dotcom meltdown the Internet has triggered substantial changes.

Searching for the Next Best Thing/Killer Application Some “winner take all” scenarios have played out. Some “winner take all” scenarios have played out. However in most market segments, Internet mediation, digitization, convergence, etc. have resulted in profound change without a single “killer platform.” However in most market segments, Internet mediation, digitization, convergence, etc. have resulted in profound change without a single “killer platform.” Most consumers now embrace the Internet for a variety of social and commercial functions. Most consumers now embrace the Internet for a variety of social and commercial functions.

What Works? Consumers and businesses embrace services and applications that are faster, better, smarter, cheaper and/or more convenient. Consumers and businesses embrace services and applications that are faster, better, smarter, cheaper and/or more convenient. New ICT applications have to improve the value proposition. The most elegant, “bleeding edge” technologies may not be necessary. New ICT applications have to improve the value proposition. The most elegant, “bleeding edge” technologies may not be necessary. The migration to something new can occur quickly, e.g., , but many “blue sky” forecasts have proven overly optimistic. The migration to something new can occur quickly, e.g., , but many “blue sky” forecasts have proven overly optimistic.

Developing Trends Analog →Digital. Analog →Digital. Wireline → Wireless. Wireline → Wireless. Narrowband → Wideband. Narrowband → Wideband. Monopoly → Competition. Monopoly → Competition. Voice → Data. Voice → Data. Mutually exclusive markets → Integrated markets. Mutually exclusive markets → Integrated markets. Circuit switching → Packet switching. Circuit switching → Packet switching. Stand alone technology → Convergent technology. Stand alone technology → Convergent technology. Basic → Enhanced. Basic → Enhanced. Technology push/pull → Consumer demand. Technology push/pull → Consumer demand.

How to Manage and Exploit Change? From incumbent telco to ICT competitor. From incumbent telco to ICT competitor. From private network manager to systems integrator. From private network manager to systems integrator. From wireless POTS provider to wireless Internet/e-commerce engine. From wireless POTS provider to wireless Internet/e-commerce engine. From Internet access provider to IP carrier and service provider. From Internet access provider to IP carrier and service provider. From supplier of “enabling” technologies to “destructive” technology supplier. From supplier of “enabling” technologies to “destructive” technology supplier.

Lessons Learned? The Internet Does Not Change the Laws of Physics The Internet Does Not Change the Laws of Physics Moore’s Law Applies to Both Information and Telecommunications Technologies. Moore’s Law Applies to Both Information and Telecommunications Technologies. Technological Innovations Must Stimulate Sufficient Demand. Technological Innovations Must Stimulate Sufficient Demand. Convergence, including legacy retrofits, Will be Difficult to Implement and Exploit. Convergence, including legacy retrofits, Will be Difficult to Implement and Exploit. Most Technologies Still Have High Sunk Costs. Most Technologies Still Have High Sunk Costs. Business Fundamentals Apply to ICT Industries. Business Fundamentals Apply to ICT Industries.