AHPS Program Plan FY07 Update

AHPS Program Plan Document Purpose  Provide an overview of AHPS and serve as a guide for the AHPS program  Defines in total the science development and service implementation activities that constitute AHPS as they are currently known  Serves as a reference for the AHPS theme team annual task and budget priority process Other references include: AGMAGM AHPS Program Management Plan (in progress)AHPS Program Management Plan (in progress) HOSIP documentsHOSIP documents project advocatesproject advocates

AHPS Program Plan Document Structure  Introduction  Flash Flood Forecast Services  Short- to Long-Term Forecast Services Deterministic Forecasting Deterministic Forecasting Lumped Model ForecastingLumped Model Forecasting Distributed Model ForecastingDistributed Model Forecasting Probabilistic Forecasting Probabilistic Forecasting  Flood Forecast Mapping and Graphical Dissemination Services  Logistical Verification  Outreach  Web Page Deployment

AHPS Program Plan Document Structure Operational Concept, Current Capabilities, and Requirements Sections  Introduction  Flash Flood Forecast Services  Short- to Long-Term Forecast Services Deterministic Forecasting Deterministic Forecasting Lumped Model ForecastingLumped Model Forecasting Distributed Model ForecastingDistributed Model Forecasting Probabilistic Forecasting Probabilistic Forecasting  Flood Forecast Mapping and Graphical Dissemination Services  Logistical Verification  Outreach  Web Page Deployment

Architecture; product generation and graphical dissemination; archive; and verification sections  Introduction  Flash Flood Forecast Services  Short- to Long-Term Forecast Services Deterministic Forecasting Deterministic Forecasting Lumped Model ForecastingLumped Model Forecasting Distributed Model ForecastingDistributed Model Forecasting Probabilistic Forecasting Probabilistic Forecasting  Flood Forecast Mapping and Graphical Dissemination Services  Logistical Verification  Outreach  Web Page Deployment AHPS Program Plan Document Structure

Training Requirements Sections  Introduction  Flash Flood Forecast Services  Short- to Long-Term Forecast Services Deterministic Forecasting Deterministic Forecasting Lumped Model ForecastingLumped Model Forecasting Distributed Model ForecastingDistributed Model Forecasting Probabilistic Forecasting Probabilistic Forecasting  Flood Forecast Mapping and Graphical Dissemination Services  Logistical Verification  Outreach  Web Page Deployment

AHPS Program Plan Document Structure Five components of a requirement for successful completion  Develop methods and procedures to meet the requirement  Prototype and validate the developed methods and procedures in an operational environment  Implement the methods and procedures into operations through standard AWIPS delivery mechanisms  Document the operational methods and procedures  Train the users on the new operational methods and procedures

AHPS Program Plan Significant Changes  Removed references of Basic, Full, and Partnered Services  Services now defined as: Flash Flood Forecasting Services Flash Flood Forecasting Services Short- to Long-term Forecasting Services Short- to Long-term Forecasting Services Deterministic Forecasting ServicesDeterministic Forecasting Services Lumped Model Forecasting Lumped Model Forecasting Distributed Model Forecasting Distributed Model Forecasting Probabilistic Forecasting ServicesProbabilistic Forecasting Services Flood Forecast Mapping and Graphical Dissemination Services Flood Forecast Mapping and Graphical Dissemination Services

AHPS Program Plan Significant Changes  Added the requirements of all projects currently in HOSIP/OSIP  Added the requirements of all projects considered by the AHPS FY06 Theme Teams

AHPS Program Plan Significant Changes  Enhanced the Flash Flood Forecasting Services operational concept Enhanced FFMP Enhanced FFMP Precipitation enhancementsPrecipitation enhancements Super high resolution radar Super high resolution radar Rectilinear Gridded multi-sensor precip estimates (NMQ and EMPE) Rectilinear Gridded multi-sensor precip estimates (NMQ and EMPE) Forecaster ability to choose precipitation estimate and forecast input Forecaster ability to choose precipitation estimate and forecast input Guidance enhancementsGuidance enhancements Ability to monitor multiple guidance (debris flow) Ability to monitor multiple guidance (debris flow) Flash Flood Potential Index Flash Flood Potential Index Statistical Distributed Models Statistical Distributed Models Fully Distributed Models Fully Distributed Models Enhancements to Site Specific Enhancements to Site Specific Ingest EMPE, Provide tools to calibrate for 1-hour time step, VAR, Snow Modeling, RoutingIngest EMPE, Provide tools to calibrate for 1-hour time step, VAR, Snow Modeling, Routing

AHPS Program Plan Significant Changes  Updated the status of all projects in the status spreadsheets Task DescriptionDevelopment Prototype and Validate Operational ImplementionDocumentionTraining Stat us HO SIP Gat e Bud get Tea m Stat us HO SIP Gat e Bud get Tea m Stat us HO SIP Gat e Bud get Tea m Stat us HO SIP Gat e Bud get Tea m Stat us HO SIP Gat e Bud get Tea m Logistical Verification 1. Characterizing point forecasts by service type, frequency and location. comp leteG2??? on- goin g stage 3??? 2. Characterizing areal forecasts by service type, frequency and location.