State Budget Outlook FY Hampton City Council December 14, 2011

Presentation to City Council Slide 2 State Budget Outlook Mary Bunting – Introduction Laura Bateman – Legislative Liaison Gloria Washington – Director, Budget & Management Analysis

Presentation to City Council Slide 3 State Budget Outlook Information compiled from the Virginia Municipal League (VML) Finance Forum, Virginia First Cities, and the Annual House Appropriations and Senate Finance Committee Retreats

Presentation to City Council Slide 4 State Revenue Picture State revenue rebounded in FY 11 after 2 year decline State general fund grew 5.8%, with collections slightly above FY06 level State budget officials are confident that the FY12 budget is secure Expect the Governor’s budget to have below trend revenue growth for the biennium of about 4%.

Presentation to City Council Slide 5 Conservative Forecasts are Likely Senate Finance Committee projects growth should be in the 4% range. HOWEVER, if federal deficit reduction cuts in the Pentagon’s budget occur in Jan. 2013, all bets are off. Slow job creation and stagnant housing market are primary reasons for conservative forecasting.

Presentation to City Council Slide 6 And a Continuing Real Estate Recession 6 Source: , Auditor of Public Accounts FY 11 & 12 estimates from VML/VACO Fiscal Survey

Presentation to City Council Slide 7 State Budget Outlook The Senate Finance staff has concluded that there will be approx. $1.6 billion in new, GF resources for the FY biennium The BAD news: High priority, mandated programs – Medicaid, K-12 re-benchmarking ($400 million and includes composite indexing), funding pre-deferral VRS rates – All compete for these resources

Presentation to City Council Slide 8 State Budget Outlook Governor McDonnell has asked agency heads for budgets assuming 2%, 4%, & 6% budget reductions Do the math: $1.6 billion = Additional Resources $2.6 billion = Must dos $ 1 BILLION BUDGET GAP for Biennium

Presentation to City Council Slide 9 State Funding is Falling for Localities 9 Source: APA Comparative Reports on Local Revenues and Expenditures

Presentation to City Council Slide 10 Recession Took a Bite Out of State GFs for Locally Administered Programs for Locally-Administered Programs 10 FY 2009 FY 2010 FY 2011 FY 2012 GF Direct Aid to K-12$5,607.6$4,769.8$4,713.3$4,951.8 State Public Education Aid (all funds) – Hampton Final Payment K-12 $145.2 $135.5 $117.9 $117.5 Health and Human Services$888.4$878.7$816.8$850.5 CSA *$299.7$279.2$271.2$270.1 Community MH/MR Services$249.4$256.5$230.1$269.0 Local Social Services Staff$117.4 $114.4$114.3 Community Health Programs$117.6$116.9$106.1$109.3 Welfare Services and Programs$104.3$108.7$95.0$87.8 Public Safety$734.3$556.8$686.0$667.7 Local Sheriffs Offices$406.1$257.1$408.2$399.2 Local Police Depts HB 599$197.3$180.8$178.7$172.4 Local/Regional Jail Per diem$80.1$68.1$53.7$49.9 Assistance for Juvenile Justice$50.8 $45.4$46.2 Constitutional Officers$155.3$142.2$144.2$143.8 Car Tax$950.0 Aid-to-Locality Reduction($50.0) ($60.0) Total Local GF Aid$8,285.6$7,247.5$7,250.3$7,503.8 Total GF Appropriations$15,943.0$14,787.2$15,457.4$16,556.9

Presentation to City Council Slide 11 State Public Education Aid - All Funds 11 Final State K-12 Payments* FY 2009 FY 2010 FY 2011 Fy 2012 CHARLOTTESVILLE 20,162,267 18,209,909 17,289,551 17,520,933 HAMPTON 145,266, ,538, ,968, ,523,523 HARRISONBURG 24,044,062 23,950,306 23,053,125 24,796,737 HOPEWELL 26,824,337 26,046,227 23,061,010 23,548,237 LYNCHBURG 53,046,373 50,206,716 43,842,471 43,814,734 MARTINSVILLE 17,136,996 15,835,232 13,573,931 13,648,481 NORFOLK 222,231, ,807, ,061, ,075,734 PETERSBURG 34,023,407 31,412,400 26,927,707 26,962,494 PORTSMOUTH 105,492, ,469,875 87,481,086 86,313,421 RICHMOND CITY 144,187, ,481, ,081, ,905,043 ROANOKE CITY 80,060,110 75,977,269 67,083,616 67,557,854 STAUNTON 17,950,563 16,384,851 14,738,589 15,026,509 WINCHESTER 17,157,276 16,603,816 15,640,127 16,596,020 Total VFC 907,583, ,924, ,802, ,289,720 VFC Change-6.0%-11.5%-0.2% Statewide 6,307,483,275 5,664,288,900 5,466,800,463 5,574,314,047 Change-10.2%-3.5%2.0% * Includes state appropriated federal stimulus funding for K-12

Presentation to City Council Slide 12 Top 6 Reasons the State Will Likely Not Restore Cuts to Core Programs 1.Revenues not growing as fast as usual coming out of a recession (under 5% revenue growth expected in ). 2.Rainy Day Fund must be restored – Half of any GF revenue growth above prior 6-yr. avg. (2% now) goes to RDF. 3.VRS contribution rates for teachers and state employees will be significantly increased. 4.Medicaid spending continues to grow faster than state revenues impact of federal health care big unknown, but law as written would add up to 425,000 new Medicaid recipients. 5.Use of one-time revenues/savings in recession have to be replaced with ongoing revenues. 6.Concern over potential impact of federal deficit reductions.

Presentation to City Council Slide Session Fiscal Policy Issues K-12 preliminary DOE re-benchmarking policies not yet endorsed by Governor or General Assembly. -HAC listed options at retreat to cut K-12 funding. What will the Governor propose for public retirement costs? -HAC defended use of 8% rate-of-return versus VRS Board 7%. Will policies be proposed to bend Medicaid cost curve? Removal of $60 million aid-to-local reduction? Will Aid-to-Police (HB 599) increase with GF revenue growth? Were lower FY 2011 CSA expenditures a one-time event? Will additional state savings policies be proposed? Will devolution changes be proposed for transportation maintenance funding that reduce street maintenance payments? Will General Assembly make BPOL/M&T tax changes without replacement revenue?

Presentation to City Council Slide 14 Hampton Priorities – Opportunity to be Heard What Are Hampton Priorities? Public Hearings on the budget that Governor McDonnell will propose on Dec. 19 for the biennium will be held across the Commonwealth. Friday, January 6 – 12 Noon, Christopher Newport University Comments can also be submitted to either Chair, House Appropriations, Chair, Senate Finance.