Policy, market and transaction analysis across central and southeast Europe

 About us  Policy, markets and transactions  Modelling credentials  Selected clients  Partners  Contact Contents 2

Based out of Prague and Bucharest, Candole works effectively across central and southeast Europe, deploying the analytical skills you expect from top-tier economic consultants. Access to accurate information, an ability to make sense of qualitative as well as quantitative data and sound judgment of the local political economy are the attributes that set us apart in the region. Candole is led by its three equity partners Jan Ondrich, James de Candole and Guy Burrow. Jan leads the analytical work of the firm, assembling project teams from among our own consultants all of whom are nationals from the region holding postgraduate degrees in economics and political science from leading western universities. Guy and James have lived in Bucharest and Prague since 1990, and share 40 years of international client experience and local policy making expertise. We are proud of the trust placed in us by some of the world’s most successful firms over the last 20 years. About us 3

Policy analysis We provide forward looking analysis to help you define objectives, assessing the business impact of future policy. And we build evidence to support your regulatory, competition and litigation objectives.  Regulatory: Advise a utility how the regulator should set Revenue-Cap regulation parameters to maximize profits. We model regulatory asset base, undertake benchmarking analysis, and advise on regulatory WACC and regulatory depreciation methods.  Competition: Define markets, calculate market concentration ratios (HHI, Residual Supply Index, Pivotal Supply Index) and establish effects of proposed mergers on horizontal and vertical market concentration.  Litigation: Quantify damages, in particular arising out of changes in policy or regulation, in preparation of an arbitration case. Policy, markets and transactions 4

Market analysis We provide tailored approaches to the analysis of markets.  Stakeholder landscape: Valuable for highly regulated industries. We outline regulation, market specifications and decision makers.  Investment research: Aimed at financial investors. We present investment profitability, accompanying administrative process and regulatory hurdles.  In-depth sector analysis for market entry: Designed for strategic investors with expansion plans. This may involve forecasting, scenario modeling and fairness opinions on official forecasts and data.  Market estimations: Clarify market size and limits. Transaction analysis We offer independent advice on financial valuations, embedded regulatory assumptions and administrative processes. And we may advise on how to structure the deal, help to secure financing as well as prepare teasers and information memoranda. Policy, markets and transactions 5

60MWe CHP project, Romania We develop detailed business plan and plant dispatch model. The assignment includes:  Creating fundamental-based model of Romanian market: We build a dispatch model of Romanian electricity market based on plant-level data (>100MW).  Modelling plant performance on various power markets:. We build dynamic hourly optimisation model of a CHP plant on day-ahead, balancing and ancillary services markets.  Scenario modelling: We create most likely scenarios for a combination of variables and their future development (e.g. random walk, Monte-Carlo).  Market modelling: We model future gas and electricity prices, development of the balancing and ancillary services markets (size, prices), marginal costs of Romanian generators, future installed capacities and load factors, heat prices, heat and electricity demand and CHP bonus Modelling credentials 6

CEE power market analysis. We develop a CEE and SEE power market model. The assignment includes:  Plant cost modelling: We model marginal costs of power plants with >100MW installed capacity.  Power flow modelling: We model impact of grid constraints and market coupling on local power price.  Market assessment: We assess prices and liquidity on power exchanges. In addition we assess (clean) dark and (clean) spark spreads for base and peak load.  Price and plant dispatch forecasting: We combine our marginal-cost model and time series forecasting to generate a set of short-run and mid-run forecasts. We estimate which plants will be in the merit and average number of operating hours. Modelling credentials 7

Modelling of German electricity and gas markets. We model the German market for potential CHP investment. The assignment includes:  Creating fundamental-based model of German market: We build a dispatch model of German electricity market based on plant-level data (>10MW).  Modelling plant performance on various power markets:. We build dynamic hourly optimisation model of a CHP plant on day-ahead, balancing and ancillary services markets.  Scenario modelling: We create most likely scenarios for a combination of variables and their future development (e.g. random walk, Monte-Carlo).  Market modelling: We model future gas and electricity prices, development of the balancing and ancillary services markets (size, prices), marginal costs of German generators, future installed capacities and load factors, heat prices, heat and electricity demand and CHP bonus. Modelling credentials 8

Selected clients 9

Guy Burrow is a partner with responsibility for the Balkans. Guy was managing director of Shell Romania for four years and a founder member of Romania’s foreign investors association. He was chairman of the advisory board of the British-Romanian chamber of commerce. He has lived in Bucharest since James de Candole is senior partner. James has promoted the policy interests of investors in the region over the last twenty years. He spent two years in the private office of Lord Heseltine, former British deputy prime minister. In 1990, he moved to Bratislava to work as special adviser to the Slovak prime minister. He settled in Prague in He sits on the board of the British chamber of commerce in the Czech Republic. Jan Ondrich is a partner leading the analytical work of the firm. He advises both financial and strategic investors on regulatory and market risk to their returns on investment in the region. He is an expert in utilities, energy and the financial services sector, and is widely quoted in the local and international business media. Jan holds an MSc from the London School of Economics and Political Science. Partners 10

Czech Republic Všehrdova , Prague 1 tel: Contact 11