Mohit Singh-Chhabra, Josh Rushton RTF Presentation March 15, 2016 New Homes Standard Protocol Update

Presentation Roadmap and Objectives New Homes (NH) Standard Protocol: General Working Principle – Introduction – Some general context on Standard Protocols – NSH: Path to Proven NH Standard Protocol: A Peek Under the Hood – Staff proposal on the mechanics of the NSH Standard Protocol Affirmation from the RTF on: – Regional usefulness of proposed Standard Protocol – Staff proposal on Standard Protocol mechanics 2

NH Protocol: General Working Principle 3

NH Protocol Protocol proposed by NEEA to enable builders and home-energy professionals with ability to develop energy efficient new homes without constraining them to a prescriptive path (non- UES) while maintaining a consistent quality standard across the region. 4

NEEA’s Proposal NEEA proposes to use the market facing REM/Rate tool to estimate energy savings per program home Take advantage of the popularity of REM/Rate in the home energy professional community Protocol will provide measure level modeling guidance NEEA’s Axis database will track Program homes in the region facilitating future research Further NEEA’s goal of market transformation in the new construction market 5

NH: New Construction Savings Savings per home would be calculated as the difference between energy consumption “baseline” and program qualifying homes Planning baseline (assumption) for this measure would be code compliant homes For each program home modeled in REM/Rate, REM/Rate automatically creates a similar reference baseline home based on pre- programed baseline characteristics 6

New Homes: Baseline Exact specification of the baseline homes is in development Planning Baseline will be aligned with state codes as a starting point – WA and OR offer multiple paths to code compliance, details on how to execute these are being worked out – ID and MT do not pose this problem, there is a single specification to meet code 7

NEEA’s Commitment to the Process

Standard Protocols: Some Context Guidelines Roadmap, Section 2: “A Standard Protocol method is appropriate when savings from a measure are widely varying, but can be determined by a standardized procedure for data collection and analysis that is applicable to many different end use sites” 9

RTF Standard Protocol: Key Terms Best Practices: As per the Guidelines “A best practice savings estimate is one that relies on the best practical and reliable data collection and estimation methods.” Simplest Reliable Method: The objective of the protocol is to develop a simplified method that meets certain reliability standards w.r.t best practices data Proven Protocol: A Protocol in which simplest reliable savings are proven to be reliable w.r.t best practices – Per site accuracy – Sample/ program level 10

Translating the Guidelines in Terms of This Protocol Best Practices Data: Utility bills (part. and non part.), Proven UES, and site audits at a min. Simplest Reliable Method: REM/Rate with adjustments Proving this Protocol: Savings estimated via adjusted REM/Rate need to be: – Accurate on a program level – Reasonable on a per home basis – Until then Protocol is Provisional 11

The Value Add of this Protocol This Standard Protocol will help we decrease program planning risk by avoiding a possible poor realization rate a few years down the line While Protocol is Provisional, analytical rigor should be applied to get best possible savings estimate to achieve this end 12

Proposed Mechanics of the Next Step Homes Protocol 13

Two Components to the Proposed Protocol 1.Model Inputs: Emphasis on consistency, completeness, physical accuracy 2.End-Use Adjustments: Engineering and billing data based adjustments to REM/Rate outputs to develop reasonable of building-level annual energy consumption 14

Model Inputs: Consistent, Complete and Accurate Model inputs are standardized via modeling guidelines, through which users are instructed on how audit data should be input into REM/Rate to meet Protocol requirements Capture fairly complete audit level description of home and equipment not limited by modeling engine capability QA/ QC supported by broad industry effort, spearheaded by NEEA trained Home Energy Rating (HERS) professionals 15

Model Inputs: An Example A specific heating system category for DHP does not exist in REM/Rate Modeling guidelines will instruct user how to input the properties of the DHP using the REM/Rate ASHP options by manipulating HSPF, % load served, capacity and other required fields DHP manufacturer information including size and efficiency of the equipment will be captured as notes – Ensuring that useful information required to calculate accurate energy savings will not be lost Site audit data which includes DHP install information will be verified by HERS professionals 16

End-Use Adjustments Annual end-use energy consumption and savings per home estimated by REM/Rate should align with existing RTF knowledge of measure performance and physics This will be accomplished via end-use adjustments to REM/Rate output Plan to adjust REM/Rate outputs for 4 broad end- use categories: Lighting, Heating and Cooling, Water Heating, and Other end use 17

End-Use Adjustments Heating: VBDD analysis based on bill data from ETO is used to true up heating estimates – Heating adjustment will need to be trued up on a regular basis; every 2-3 years Likely need more data from colder climates and better representation of electric heat sources down the road Lighting and Water Heating: UES workbooks will provide adjustments for other measures where applicable – Engineering analysis for measures that we do not have UES for Other End Use: all measures that do not fall into above three end-use categories; similar treatment to Lighting and Water Heating 18

Why do we need End-Use Adjustments? Past NC measures relied on shell improvements for majority of savings – Current state and federal codes for home shell and heating equipment don’t leave much opportunity for heating energy savings – NSH enables builders to explore different energy efficiency measures; savings possible from all end-use Savings from non-HVAC end uses cannot be estimated using billing data alone 19

20 Site Data Modeling Guidelines REM/Rate Model UES Workbook Adjustment Baseline/ Eff. Home Consumption VBDD Analysis (ETO Data) UES Workbook and Engineering Analysis Lighting Consumption Water Heat Consumption All Other Consumption Heating Consumption 1. Model Inputs 2. End-Use Adjustments UES Workbook Adjustment

Home Energy Professional's Perspective 1.Start: refer to modeling guidelines, design and simulate a home 2.Upload home’s REM/Rate file to NEEA’s Axis database a.The end-use adjustments and realization rate are automatically applied in the Axis database b.Checks that home still qualifies for the program and/ OR attains desired energy savings c.If energy savings not sufficient, go back to step 1; else step 3 3.Energy savings claim complete – start building NEEA and CLEAResult stated that they don’t expect the process to be complex for builders; not much more complex than HERS rating – Raters and builders won’t have to conduct any adjustment manually; that is automated via Axis 21

Path Forward 22

February Subcommittee Meeting Presented a more technically detailed version of this presentation – Communicated the analytical challenge to develop this Protocol Got subcommittee head-nod that the proposed protocol: – Would be useful for the region – Not too complex for home energy professionals to implement Complexity was a CAT concern 23

Looking for RTF Affirmation Does RTF agree with CAT proposed method to develop the protocol considering the energy savings potential and high analyst resource required? – Potential alternatives could be custom measure, alternate standard protocol, UES measures, or impact evaluation guidance RTF approved Standard Protocol helps develop regional consistency and trust as well 24

Additional Slides 25

NEEA’s Commitment to The Protocol Resources to help develop this protocol Protocol related training and support to the building energy professional community on an ongoing basis Online Axis Database to track program homes Future M&V Support 26

27 Model inputs Standardized via Modeling Guidelines Limitations help clarify protocol applicability Fairly complete description of home/equipment Not limited by modeling engine capability QA/QC supported by broad industry effort Baseline: a similar “code home” automatically generated for each efficient home modeled Energy modeling NW REM/Rate : Engine embedded in current effort This may change some day Back-end adjustments used to adjust raw model outputs Will account for patchable engine deficiencies Realization rate Based on comparison with billing data Adjustments likely to be pretty coarse VBDD to attempt separate true-ups for heating, baseload, and (maybe) cooling May also inform some “back-end adjustments” under Energy Modeling Emphasis on consistency, completeness, physical accuracy Emphasis on reasonableness of building-level annual end- use energy consumption estimates Emphasis on program-level savings, how fast the meter spins (on average) Three basic options for handling modelling difficulties