FUTURE CHALLENGES AND OPPORTUNITIES IN PRODUCING ECONOMIC STATISTICS Erica L. Groshen, BLS Commissioner Society for Economic Measurement Annual Conference Paris, France July 24, 2015

Outline 2 BLS mission What…  have we accomplished?  are we working on?  are our challenges?  would we like to do?

BLS Mission … principal Federal agency responsible for measuring  labor market activity  working conditions  price changes in the economy … collect, analyze, and disseminate essential economic information to support public and private decision- making

Seasonally adjusted labor force data for Asians and Hispanics Quarterly revisions of Chained Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers New Producer Price Index (PPI) aggregation structure Accomplishments: Program improvements 4

5 Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) matches  Profit/nonprofit split  Hurricane maps Licenses and certifications in Current Population Survey (CPS) Accomplishments: Program improvements

Tracking employer-provided health insurance New employment series  3-month aves.  Historical revisions Consumer Expenditure Survey semiannual releases 6

Accomplishments: Communication Application Programming Interface (API) Interactive charts Twitter 7

Accomplishments: Communication Commissioner’s Corner blog  Table comparing price and spending measures  CPI, PPI, Import and Export Prices, Consumer Expenditures 8

Accomplishments: Communication 9

What we’re working on Occupational Requirements Survey  Partnership with Social Security Administration  Outputs in late 2016 Autocoding text Web scraping Updating Consumer Expenditure Survey 10

What we’re working on Joining Federal Statistical Research Data Center network Improving data-retrieval tools  Consistent terms across programs Possible new Survey of Employer- Provided Training 11

Challenges: Evergreen 12 Timeliness vs. accuracy  Educating users on how revisions help achieve a balance Consistency vs. relevance  Long-lasting series  Relevant series that reflect today’s economy Maintaining trust and independence

Challenges: Big data Big data’s opportunities pose challenges  Resources – Storage and computational capacity – Skills development – Acquisition  Quality – Providing structure – Ensuring accuracy  Ownership – Confidentiality and disclosure – Custody and continuity 13

Challenges: Operational 14 Maintaining response rates Funding in FY2016 and beyond  Uncertainty  Levels Higher costs of doing business  Rising wages; attracting and keeping staff  Continuous improvement of products  Increasing cyber security threats  Keeping employee skills relevant

What we’d like to do 15 Proposed enhancements in FY2016  Restore funding for Export Price Index (IPP)  Update JOLTS  Consumer Expenditure Survey Supplemental poverty measures  CPS Contingent Worker Supplement

What we’d like to do 16 Additional enhancements  Rapid response (one-off) surveys  Occupational Employment Survey time series  Improve Occupational Safety and Health Statistics  UI wage records Measures of error for statistics  More consistent and visible  Help users understand sources and impact  Sampling and total

In closing 17 “We know that, when it comes to technology and the economy, if you're not constantly moving forward, then - without a doubt - you're moving backwards.” Bill Owens, b Many challenges and opportunities  Evergreen and new  What we measure, how we measure, and how we deliver Basic mission remains: Help people make better decisions

Contact Information Erica L. Groshen Commissioner

Appendix Unseasonal Seasonals? By Jonathan H. Wright of Johns Hopkins University  /2013b_wright_unseasonal_seasonals.pdf?la=en /2013b_wright_unseasonal_seasonals.pdf?la=en  “A sharp downturn in the economy, like that experienced recently, has distorted government statistics. The problem is that the procedures used to correct raw data for seasonal fluctuations can too easily confuse the downturn with a change in seasonality.” Wright argues that a longer window should be used to estimate seasonal changes. 19

Appendix Charles F. Manski, Communicating Uncertainty in Official Economic Statistics: An Appraisal Fifty Years after Morgenstern, Journal of Economic Literature  ng_uncertainty_in_official_statistics.pdf 20

BIG DATA BLS Plan: Big picture initiatives design by VICTORIA BATTISTA RAPID RESPONSE TAX + LEX JOB ROTATION

BLS Town Hall: Headline initiatives design by VICTORIA BATTISTA RAPID RESPONSE RAPID RESPONSE DATA PRODUCTS: What’s happening now? BLS knows and so can you !

BIG DATA BLS Town Hall: Headline initiatives design by VICTORIA BATTISTA BIG DATA BLS conquers Big Data!

BLS Town Hall: Headline initiatives design by VICTORIA BATTISTA TAX + LEX TAX AND LEX: Now Boston is always Boston is always Boston!

BLS Town Hall: Headline initiatives design by VICTORIA BATTISTA JOB ROTATION JOB ROTATION: BLS job satisfaction soars to 5-year high!