Revisiting the Policy Requirements of the Terms of Trade Boom Presentation to Australian Business Economists Ken Henry Tuesday, 20 May 2008.

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Presentation transcript:

Revisiting the Policy Requirements of the Terms of Trade Boom Presentation to Australian Business Economists Ken Henry Tuesday, 20 May 2008

Global inflation Source: IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2008.

Commodity price inflation (in SDRs) Source: Reserve Bank of Australia.

Prices of imports and the CPI (in $A terms) Note: Import price data are implicit price deflators from the Balance of Payments. March quarter 2008 import price data are estimates based on the International Trade Price Indexes. Source: ABS Catalogue Numbers , , and Treasury.

Prices of fuel imports and the CPI Note: Import price data are implicit price deflators from the Balance of Payments. March quarter 2008 import price data are estimates based on the International Trade Price Indexes. Source: ABS Catalogue Numbers , , and Treasury.

Phillips curve Source: ABS Catalogue Numbers , , Reserve Bank of Australia and Treasury.

Terms of trade: selected industrialised economies Note: December quarter 2007 data are forecasts. Source: OECD Economic Outlook No. 82.

Terms of trade Source: ABS Catalogue Number , Reserve Bank of Australia and Treasury.

Commodity prices Source: Reserve Bank of Australia.

Growth in the Wage Price Index (through the year) Source: ABS Catalogue Number

Sources of employment growth Western Australia Queensland Source: ABS Catalogue Number and Treasury.

Sources of population growth Western Australia Queensland Note: These Net Overseas Migration estimates contain a break in time series. Estimates for September quarter 2006 onwards use an improved methodology and are not comparable with Net Overseas Migration estimates from earlier periods. Differences between total growth and the sum of natural increase and net migration between census years are due to intercensal discrepancy. Source: ABS Catalogue Number

Wage growth and unemployment rate Source: ABS Catalogue Numbers and

Revisiting the Policy Requirements of the Terms of Trade Boom Presentation to Australian Business Economists Ken Henry Tuesday, 20 May 2008