Thematic Workshop on Elections, Violence and Conflict Prevention 2 nd edition Conflict Analysis and Electoral Violence Emmanuelle Bernard and Corrado Scognamillo Barcelona Jun 2011

Introduction : approach and definition Approach of the session  Rationale and methodologies of conflict analysis  Electoral violence in wider conflict dynamics  Prevention measures Structure  Why do conflict analysis?  How to do conflict analysis?  Conflict analysis in practice  Conclusions and perspectives

Defining electoral violence: “…Acts or threats of coercion, intimidation or physical harm perpetrated to affect an electoral process or that arises in the context of electoral competition. When perpetrated to affect an electoral process, violence may be employed to influence the process of elections – such as efforts to delay, disrupt, or derail a poll – and to influence the outcomes: the determining of winners in competitive races for political office or to secure approval or disapproval of referendum questions.” UNDP, Timothy Sisk 2009 “Electoral conflict and violence can be defined as any random or organised act or threat to intimidate, physically harm, blackmail or abuse a political stakeholder in seeking to determine, delay, or to otherwise influence an electoral process.” Jeff Fischer 2002 Introduction : approach and definition

1. Why do conflict analysis? A tool to understand/assess/rethink conflict by identifying :  Structural causes of conflict (pervasive and long standing factors that become built into policies, structures and culture of a society and may create the preconditions for violent conflict)  Proximate causes of conflict (signs likely to trigger violent conflict or its further escalation and can be symptomatic of structural causes’)  Key actors  Conflict dynamics  At different levels : regional, national, local A tool for action :  Early warning/early response  Programmatic development (identifying priorities, Do no harm, mainstreaming, coherence of support)  As part of trust-building, dialogue process

1. Why do conflict analysis? Several approaches/methodologies with different objectives including:  socio-political monitoring;  conflict sensitivity of development programmes;  Design of conflict prevention programmes (dialogue/mediation initiatives at national/local level, strengthening national capacities for internal mediation and collaborative decision-making)

1. Why do conflict analysis?  All methodologies help separate structural causes of conflict versus proximate causes of conflict  Elections recurrently (though not universally) come up as proximate cause or trigger of conflict

2. How to do conflict analysis? At what stage do we use conflict analysis?  Programming (country strategy papers)  Project design (identification and formulation)  Monitoring and evaluation Main common features  Context profile : what is political, economic, socio-cultural context? Emergent issues? History of conflict?  Causes : structural and proximate causes? Possible triggets? Factors for peace?  Actors : what are their interests, goals, capacities, relationships? Capacities for peace? Spoilers?  Dynamics : current trends,windows of opportunities, scenarios

What methodologies do we use in the EU?  EC checklist for root causes of conflict  Governance assessments  Political economy analysis

2. How to do conflict analysis? The EC Checklist for root causes of conflict / Programming fiche for conflict prevention 1. Legitimacy of the state 2. Rule of law 3. Respect for fundamental rights 4. Civil society and media 5. Relations between communities and dispute-solving mechanisms 6. Sound economic management 7. Social and regional inequalities 8. Geopolitical situation

2. How to do conflict analysis? Analysing and addressing governance in sector operations (Reference Document, 2008)  Step 1: Analyze the context Policies; Legal and regulatory framework; Organisational capacities ; International context  Step 2: Map the actors – Role and importance; Interests pursued; Power and resources; Key linkages; Incentives  Step 3: Assess governance and accountability relations – Mix of governance mechanisms; Information about governance; Responsiveness of governance; Accountability set-up; Capacity for governance and accountability

2. How to do conflict analysis? Political economy analysis (revised PPCM guidelines)  Foundational factors: fundamentally shape nature of state and political system, change slowly Government controls territory? History of state formation Sources of revenue, Social and economic structures, Geo-strategic position, Geography, demography  Rules of the game : formal, informal rules and norms that shape incentives, behaviour of key actors. Distribution of power (formal, informal), Political competition, “Institutionalisation” of government, civil society, private sector: public, transparent, known rules or personalised, arbitrary process?  Here and now: - Games within the rules: how day to day politics works strategies for winning, retaining power, Key relationships eg politicians/ investors, Key public appointments, events

2. How to do conflict analysis? One of UNDP’s tools: Conflict Sensitive Development Analysis  understand the conflict; ii) outline programmatic activities; iii) serve as a dialogue/consensus building exercise around sensitive issues  Dig deeper than core conflict issues (eg. inter-ethnic tensions) into less visible things (eg. access to livelihoods, exclusive governance, etc…)

2. How to do conflict analysis? Analysis for electoral violence prevention should:  understand dynamics between structural and proximate causes;  use and update analysis to monitor election-related programming;  ensure coherence between election-related programmes and conflict prevention programmes (long term initiatives, local level activities, etc…)

3. Conflict analysis and electoral violence prevention in practice Guinea (Conakry)  Peace and Development Advisor (conflict analysis, conflict prevention initiatives, links with relevant portfolios, including elections) jointly deployed UNDP/DPA  Joint UN analysis exercise (UNCT/PBSO/DPA), national conflict analysis exercise  Coherent activities in mediation (ICG, mediator Compaore, senior UN mediation advisor), dialogue (civil society capacities), election support (Fossepel), sensitization campaigns  Remaining challenges—completion of electoral cycle

3. Conflict analysis in practice Sri Lanka  Joint donor conflict analysis in Nepal, Georgia, Sri Lanka  Conflict sensitivity assessment in Sri Lanka : an external assessment of EU programmes conducted by the NGO Saferworld. Findings then shared with other donors.

3. Conflict analysis in practice Benin  UNDP/DPA joint support on electoral violence prevention  Joint analysis and deployment  Local (peace committees) and national level (political advisor) simultaneously Other examples: BCPR provided election-violence prevention support in many countries including Kenya, Solomon islands, Tanzania (Zanzibar), Togo in 2010.

4. Conclusions and perspectives From analysis to action  A wide array of prevention measures  Electoral assistance in a broader framework of responses  Coherence and the use of joint conflict analysis  The warning - response gap  Still an uncharted territory

4. Conclusions and perspectives  Most effective programmes are long-standing programmes that set up capacities for dialogue and dispute resolution in the socio-political sphere outside of the electoral period and are adapted to election time in due course  Combination of national and local activities are most effective—eg. political advisor/mediation specialist at national level working in tandem with local level trainer/facilitator of peace committees (see Benin). Also see good collaboration between PDAs and EAD.