The CPA demands a referendum for South Sudan

UNITY OR SECESSION South Sudan dominant opinion PUBLIC OPINION POLL ON SOUTH SUDAN REFERENDUM Prepared by: AIM Release date: 9 th Dec. 2010

SOUTH SUDAN PUBLIC OPINION POLL ON SOUTH SUDAN REFERENDUM ON THE OPTIONS OF UNITYAND SECESSION OF SOUTH SUDAN

South Sudan Opinion Poll In the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA), it states that the right of self-determination for the people of South Sudan be exercised through a referendum. The choice is made between confirming Unity or Secession of South Sudan. Apart from personal details, South Sudan`s opinion poll answered the following questions: 1.What of the two options is your choice: a). Unity b). Secession? 2. What reason/s do you give for your answer (above)? 3. When do you want the referendum results implemented? a)After 2months b)After six Month c)After six years d)Almost immediately

South Sudan Opinion Poll SOUTH SUDANESE HAVE THEIR SAY ON THE CHOICE OF THEIR DESTINY TO ESTABLISH A COUNTRY OF THEIR OWN OR REMAIN IN A UNITED SUDAN ON NEW BASIS 2010 opens with divided views on the contents of the options of a united Sudan or secession of South Sudan. Whether Sudan remains one or forms two countries takes an important center stage in public debates and discussions. While political parties take hard-line positions on the most effective way out, the curtains are not far from falling, as the referendum approaches. But these are party positions, South Sudanese haven't concluded yet. To find out what they are thinking though, as it always does, AIM sets out to explore public opinion in the theater of action. Interviewing 250 adult South Sudanese in each of the ten States of Sudan and Khartoum included, in a representative survey, the findings are interesting…

SURVEY METHODOLOGY The target population for this survey was all South Sudanese adults aged 18 and above (voting age). A sample size of 2500 respondents was drawn from the ten States of South Sudan and from different counties. The margin of error attributed to sampling and other random effects of this survey’s sample size is +/- 4 % margin at more than 95% confidence level. This sample size is large enough to make reliable estimates on the target population opinion survey. The fieldwork for this survey was conducted between 6 th June – 15 th November Data were directly collected from the ground and from the persons who filled the forms. Some were assisted and especially those that do not have the chance to understand English and Arabic languages.

SURVEY METHODOLOGY…Continued To achieve the sample for this opinion polls, a randomized multi-stage stratified design using probability proportional to size (PPS) on AIM database was used. Doing this ensured geographical representation, i.e., explicitly in terms of counties and setting (urban/rural) to match the sample structure of future polls and implicitly reflecting the distribution of population over Southern Sudan`s Counties. The data collection involved the use of semi-structured questionnaire having both open and closed-ended questions. The survey questions were structured so as to allow for a broad range of opinion-options. This eliminates bias in the way the questions are asked, and responses captured. Strict quality control measures for data collection were applied. The Survey Supervisors made a minimum of 10% back-checks to ascertain whether the forms were actually filled and if the responses given were correct to the view of the opinion-maker.

SOUTH SUDAN OPINION POLL Secession option: 96% & Unity option: 4%

SOUTH SUDAN OPINION POLL Note: 96% for Southern Sudan Independence and 4% for a United Sudan

In the forthcoming referendum which of the two options: Unity or secession do you prefer to have? By Total SOUTH SUDAN OPINION POLL AS PER STATE CES: 96% S & 4% U. EES: 98% S & 2% U. JS: 96% S & 4% U. LS: 97.6% S & 2.4 U. NBG. 95% S & 5% U. US: 96.6% S & 3.4% U. UNS: 93% S & 7% U. WS: 98.4% S & 1.6% U. WBG: 98% S & 2% U. WES: 97.8% S & 2.2% U. KHRT: 90% S & 10% U

SOUTH SUDAN OPINION POLL Opinions as to the implementation of the referendum results were seen as follows, with 72% wanting it implemented within 2 months. Notes: “Almost immediately” is rep. By 20% “After 2 months” is rep. by 72% “After 6 months” is rep. by 6% “After 6 yrs” rep. by 2%

SOUTH SUDAN OPINION POLL South Sudanese gave various reasons for their opinions on the referendum as follows: Secession option: i.To established and develop a country of their own. ii.To control their own resources without remote control from Khartoum. iii.To be in control of their own destiny through their own government and parliament. iv.To develop a sense of their own dignity and identity. v.To be out of Arab domination and lead their own country under secularism system. vi.A united Sudan is a postponement of future civil wars with northern Arabs and that there is no guarantee for no future civil wars. vii.To practice total human rights and freedoms in their own country. viii.To establish their desired government on the basis on democracy and the rule of law. ix.All regimes in Khartoum have always failed to satisfactorily address issues of identity, equitable share of resources and power. x.To stop imposition of Arabization and Islamization against the will of South Sudanese.

SOUTH SUDAN OPINION SURVEY South Sudanese gave various reasons for their opinions on the referendum as follows: Unity option: i.Since we are one country, we should not allow foreign views to divide us between north and south. ii.That South Sudan cannot develop without northern Sudan hence one country will be an ideal option. iii.The fear that secession may escalate tribal clashes within southern Sudan. iv.That there is still hope for a united beautiful Sudan since the SPLM has failed to make unity attractive to Southerners. v.That with the high level of corruption in South Sudan, there may be no difference between the government in Khartoum and that of in Juba.

SOUTH SUDAN OPINION SURVEY Khartoum: South Sudanese fears That Khartoum is peaceful in terms of security compared to South Sudan That there are no schools and proper hospitals for their children Khartoum is cheaper in terms of prices compared to Juba. The fear of non acceptance by other southerners. With the choice of secession, they fear their lives and property may be in danger from the Arabs in the north. The fear of broken homes especially those married to northerners. The fear of losing their jobs and property in Khartoum.

SOUTH SUDAN OPINION SURVEY Voting ages 18-24yrs (44%), 25-35yrs (36%), 36-65yrs (15%) and 66 & above (5%).

SOUTH SUDAN OPINION SURVEY sex representation Male respondents were 65% while females were represented by 35%

APPLICATION OF THE FINDINGS INTO SUDAN`S REFERENDUM ACT 2009 According to the Southern Sudan Referendum Commission/Bureau, there are at least 3,900,000 registered voters. In according to our findings, 96% of the people of Southern Sudan are voting for secession while 4% of the sampled population would vote for a united Sudan. The referendum act 2009 requires that a minimum turnout registered voters as 60% (of 3,900,000) which is 2,340,000 votes.

APPLICATION OF THE FINDINGS INTO SUDAN`S REFERENDUM ACT 2009 Because of high illiteracy rates, we assumed 100,000 votes may be declared invalid. The valid votes may only be minimally 2,230, 000 votes. Based on this South Sudan opinion survey, 96% of 2,230, 000 is 2,140,800 votes for secession against Unity, 4% of 2,230,000 which may be 89,200 votes.

APPLICATION OF THE FINDINGS INTO SUDAN`S REFERENDUM ACT 2009 The referendum act of 2009 requires 50% + 1 vote for a win for either unity or secession. Based on this opinion survey, the required minimum win for secession in Southern Sudan is at 96% for 2,140,800 votes against 4% votes for unity; 89,200 votes.

APPLICATION OF THE FINDINGS INTO SUDAN`S REFERENDUM ACT 2009 Your excellencies, honourable members of parliament, distinguished guests, ladies and gentlemen! South Sudanese are overwhelmingly expected to vote for INDEPENDENCE by a minimum votes of 2,1400,800 votes against 89,200 votes for a united Sudan.

RECOMMENDATIONS Despite the challenges faced by AIM in carrying out this opinion survey, we are happy to forward the following recommendations as per our findings. AIM recommends that there should be no change of the CPA date of referendum in order to avoid potential escalation of conflict between the north and the south. We recommend that the free choice of South Sudanese be respected by the Central government in Khartoum, the International community, the UN, Regional bodies like IGAD, Arab Leagues and AU.

RECOMMENDATIONS With Khartoum findings and the uneasiness of Southerners in referendum participation in Khartoum, AIM recommends that “other locations” referred to in the referendum Act 2009 may be a source of conflict. The pro-unity or pro-secession groups can use these to escalate tensions. The referendum should be confined to the ten Southern Sudan states. AIM recommends that GOSS should be prepared to step up as a National Government of South Sudan under the aspirations of the people of Southern Sudan. AIM also do recommends that the SPLA and the other armed groups in Southern Sudan should unite and integrate to form a national army of the South that meets the international standards of a conventional army.

BIG QUESTIONS!!! Once the South becomes independent, What then may happen in Northern Sudan? Will Northern Sudan be in one piece or in pieces? Will there be a regime change in our neighbouring northern Sudan state? We need to be a little bit serious and think on how to over come such challenges!!! One of the artists tried to paint the future of Sudan in this form!

SUDAN will never be the same! Dr. John Garang, “As I leave the world for those that claim to have divine qualifications and powers, Sudan will never be the same again!”

ABOUT AIM

Introduction & Background Agency for Independent Media (AIM) is a media and human rights networking agency operating in South Sudan. AIM’s mandate is anchored on the importance of professional facilitation of information gathering and dissemination within and outside South Sudan. The Agency is committed to promotion and defense of general fundamental human rights, democracy, good governance, rule of law and the right of expression which inevitably requires press freedom. AIM was founded in 2006, with the mind to champion the cause of media practitioners who faced a number of operational challenges in South Sudan. Among others, issues encountered include media freedom and professional journalism. Consequently, AIM took upon itself the role of strengthening media capacity. The Agency takes seriously strong media as one of the most effective devices for check and balance in a most likely emerging South Sudan. Over the five years of its existence, AIM endeavored to make a difference in the process of implementation of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA), It initiated programmes which stirred up critical thinking in peace building, campaigns for democratization of South Sudan, good governance, rule of law, freedom of the press and professional journalism, through the Media. As a networking agency, communication and collaboration are important tools to use. Hence, AIM extensively communicate to, and collaborate with many partners who further its cause. Among others, AIM has working relations with international bodies e.g. UN agencies, Embassies, International NGOs, National NGOs, Governments, Cooperate Sector. These bodies employ media to communicate their ideas and strategies. Pertinent to AIM objective is building capacity of media personnel. Hence AIM works earnestly to improve the quality of media personnel in South Sudan to render quality services to partner institutions for public interest.

Our vision, mission & goal Our vision A democratic society that respects human rights and press freedom Our Mission To educate the public, and positively influence decision-makers’ opinions on matters relating to democracy, fundamental human rights and press freedom. Our Goal To lay a foundation for a peaceful, democratic society based on respect for fundamental human rights and freedom of expression.

Core Values AIM endeavors to promote the following guiding principles: 1.Freedom of press 2.Freedom of expression 3.Right to access information 4.Basic fundamental human rights principles

Strategic Objectives These objectives are formulated based on the context of South Sudan that has been examined above in this document. The context offered five working areas for AIM to consider in the next five years (2011 – 2015). 1.Training and Capacity Building: (Issues to be addressed are: AIM capacity building; and media capacity strengthening in South Sudan); 2.Human Rights: (Issues to be dealt with are: socio-economic rights, civil and political rights); 3.Post-Referendum issues: (Issues identified for immediate attention are: repatriation, constitutional review; and education on the laws of South Sudan); 4.Resource mobilization: (The main issues are: fundraising and mobilization of material and human resources); and 5. Cross cutting issues: (The strategy considers HIV/AIDs, environment; and gender as issues of vital concern in South Sudan).

Thank You For Your Attention! For further details Please contact: David De Dau Executive Director, Agency for Independent Media (AIM) Tel: Mobile: