Whither WTO? Old Interests and New Coalitions after Cancún. Professor Dr. Rolf J. Langhammer, Kiel

I.The WTO before Cancún: Success Eats Success More members, more heterogeneity: The club model vanishes. So does the quality of the “club” good (services) More tasks, more trade-offs (allocation vs distribution targets, assignment problem, overloading)

A mercantilist alternative to multilateralism at hand: “Competitive regionalism” Perception of costless non-membership (Rose): Non-members and members trade as intensively among each other as members.

II. The WTO after Cancún: The Institution at Risk Lacking credibility: The “Development Round” as a misnomer: “trade and...” Lacking enforceability of commitments (agriculture, textiles) Lacking workability: one country, one vote, single undertaking

North – South divide: G-21: Without concessions no reciprocity US/EU: Without reciprocity no concessions Effects of China’s accession to the WTO: Middle- income countries in a sandwich position (ToT pressure from bottom and top

Sources: World Development Indicators World Trade Organization; Annual Report Gwartney, James und Robert Lawson, Economic Freedom of the World, 2003 Annual Report, Vancouver. B.C. - World Trade Organization; World Trade Report 2003b. List of Indicators: 1 Share of exports and imports in GDP, Share in world merchandise trade (exports), Share in world merchandise trade (imports), Growth of merchandise export volume, Change in product structure (share of manufactures in merchandise exports), MFN applied tariffs for non- agricultural products (Simple average) Indicator:

The Big Two without a round: For mercantilists no problem

III. Is there a Way out of the Cancún Impasse? Everything depends on the EU: No apologies for trade barriers and sluggish growth G-21 must either compromise or vanish Developed countries must abandon “trade and...” issues (Singapore issues)

Rule discipline vs trade liberalisation: More of the former at the expense of the latter? “Proprietor” vs “consumer behaviour”: “variable geometry” or “different speeds” in the WTO: The old idea of GATT-plus or conditional MFN.

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