Habitat Quality: Model Overview Biodiversity is not treated as an ecosystem service Instead, it’s used to assess overlaps and tradeoffs InVEST models habitat quality and rarity as indicators of the status of biodiversity Areas with high quality are generally better able to maintain biodiversity

Habitat Quality: Model Overview Suitability of the habitat for the species of interest Does it prefer grassland, open canopy forest or closed canopy forest? Proximity and intensity of threats Proximity: how far away is the threat? Intensity: how severe a threat is it? Habitat quality depends on:

Habitat Quality: Model Inputs Threat Habitat Not habitat Threat National Park distance impact distance impact

INVEST BIODIVERSITY MODELS Model Outputs from Invest Biodiversity 3.0 – (2.4.3) Future scenarios are based on 1 meter of sea level rise by the year 2100 Each scenario used 12 habitat threat layers – 8 static and 4 dynamic Habitat stressor levels were based on prior published research efforts Degradation tables show mean scores by habitat (higher values = more degradation) Habitat quality is summed for all habitats (higher values = better quality) Habitat degradation and/or quality is used as a proxy for biodiversity

INVEST BIODIVERSITY MODELS HABITAT STRESSORS /THREATS ALLRD – all public roads BEACH – beach areas accessible to human uses/trampling COMFISH – commercial fisheries DEVLND – developed land FACIL – industrial facilities LEVEE – existing levees PORT – port infrastructure and facilities RAIL – railroads RECFSH – recreational fisheries REFIN – oil refineries SHIP – shipping lanes WASTE – waste water outflows Threats is red are dynamic and change with each time slice, the remaining threats are static and do not change through time.

INVEST BIODIVERSITY MODELS BUILT DEVELOPMENT SCENARIO - TIME SERIES FOR DEGRADATION 2006, 2025, 2050, 2075, 2100

INVEST BIODIVERSITY MODELS BUILT DEVELOPMENT SCENARIO MEAN DEGRADATION SCORES BY HABITAT TYPE AND YEAR

InVEST Blue Carbon model Estimates: How much carbon is stored in coastal vegetation and sediments Carbon accumulation in the sediments Economic value of storage and sequestration

Blue Carbon Lit Review

Blue Carbon Model Process Freeport, TX : Land Use/ Land Cover ‘Marsh’ (store carbon) No CarbonIgnore Transitional Salt Marsh Irregularly flooded marsh Regularly Flooded Marsh Vegetated Tidal Flat Developed Dry Land Undeveloped Dry Land Estuarine Water Tidal Creek Open Ocean Tidal Flat Cypress Swamp Inland Fresh Marsh Tidal Fresh Marsh Mangrove Estuarine Beach Ocean Beach Ocean Flat Rocky Intertidal Inland Open Water Riverine Tidal Open Water Inland Shore Tidal Swamp Backshore Nontidal Swamp Transitional Salt Marsh Irregularly flooded marsh Regularly Flooded Marsh Vegetated Tidal Flat Developed Dry Land Undeveloped Dry Land Estuarine Water Tidal Creek Open Ocean Tidal Flat

Transitions to… (t2) Starts as… (t1) Transitional Salt Marsh Irregularly flooded marsh Regularly Flooded Marsh Vegetated Tidal Flat Developed Dry Land Undeveloped Dry Land Estuarine Water Tidal Creek Open Ocean Tidal Flat Transitional Salt Marsh Irregularly flooded marsh Regularly Flooded Marsh Vegetated Tidal Flat Developed Dry Land 3.57 No change Undeveloped Dry Land 3.57 No change Estuarine Water 3.57 No change Tidal Creek 3.57 No change Open Ocean 3.57 No change Tidal Flat 3.57 No change Transitional Matrix % accumulation% loss % accumulation no change (0%) (% change over 25-year period)

InVEST Blue Carbon – Preliminary Results

Stage-based Blue Crab Population Model Commercial Harvest Recreational Harvest Egg/Larvae Juvenile Survival Seagrass Habitat Marsh Habitat Salinity, Temperature Adult Fecundity

Evaluating changes in habitat using SLAMM Baseline 2m SLR, m SLR, 2100 Gain or Loss of Marsh Habitat?

Relative increase in marsh habitat and blue crab production with sea-level rise

InVEST T0 Fisheries Model

InVEST T0 Fisheries – Preliminary results for IPPC mean, 1m and 2m SLR scenarios