WICCI Forestry Roundtables: Welcome and Overview

Forestry WG - Purpose Professional foresters Conservation professionals Motivated landowners Others?

Forestry WG - Audience Professional foresters Conservation professionals Forest industry Researchers

Why should I care?

Wisconsin’s Forests Figures: Perry et al ( Who owns them?Where are they? Weight of Live Trees (tons/acre)

Making Today Useful Focus on the topic at hand Ask questions of presenters and each other Make ideas better – constructive, not critical Be realistic with your expectations Help us move forward after today

Kick-off Discussion Key climate impacts? Key concerns? Adaptation actions? Other key topics?

Climate Change in Wisconsin: what we know, what we expect, and how it relates to forests

Climate and Wisconsin Forests Figure: SeaWiFS Project, NASA/Goddard Space Flight Center, ORBIMAGE

Climate vs. Weather

Weather

Weather

Weather

Weather

Weather + Time = Climate Long-term average

Climate Change Long-term trend

Change in Seasonal Temperature, Observed Temperature Change (F) WinterSpring

Change in Seasonal Temperature, Observed Temperature Change (F) SummerFall

Change in Seasonal Precipitation, Observed Precipitation Change (in) Winter Spring

Change in Seasonal Precipitation, Observed Precipitation Change (in) Summer Fall

Frequency of 3”+ rainstorms in WI Saunders 2012 Observed Trends in Extreme Weather

12-24 fewer soil frost days per yr since more freeze-thaw cycles per yr since day advance in growing season since days/decade earlier ice out since 1950 Observed Trends in Phenology

Climate Change and Forests It’s not the complete story, but the story’s not complete without it. Frerker et al. 2014, Nowacki and Abrams 2014

OK, so what do we expect in the future?

An Uncertain Future Don’t wait for a crystal ball

Two scenarios of future GHG emissions Future Change - Uncertainty IPCC 2007, Graphic: C. Wake, University of New Hampshire

Projected Change - Temp HighLow Hayhoe 2010, Stoner et al. 2013

Projected Change - Precip Hayhoe 2010, Stoner et al HighLow

Last Spring Frost Source: MRI ModelIPSL Model

Annual Snowfall MRI ModelIPSL Model Source:

Nights Below 0ºF MRI ModelIPSL Model Source:

What could this mean for forests?

Impacts on Forests Longer growing season CO 2 fertilization Altered soil moisture Extreme weather events Less frozen ground Increased fire risk Species range shifts Increased stressors Sources: Handler et al. 2014, Janowiak et al. 2014

Longer Growing Season Benefits: -More time for growth! Limits: -Early bud break/loss of cold hardening -Frost damage with spring frosts Ainsworth and Long 2005, Ainsworth and Rogers 2007, Norby and Zak 2011

CO 2 Fertilization Benefits: -Increased growth -Water-use efficiency Limits: -Other nutrients or water -Stressors or disturbance Ainsworth and Long 2005, Ainsworth and Rogers 2007, Norby and Zak 2011, Coture et al. 2015

Altered Soil Moisture Water loss from soils (evaporation) Greater uncertainty about future precipitation, but great risk of summer moisture stress Water loss from trees (transpiration) Groundwater recharge Runoff Precipitation

Extreme events are rare and hard to model. Extreme Weather Events

Frozen ground conditions have decreased across over the last 60+ years – WI example Less Frozen Ground Source: C. Rittenhouse (UConn) and A. Rissman (UW-Madison), in review Frozen Ground Season Annual data Trend Frozen Ground Days Annual data Trend

Wildfire Risk Source: Guyette et al. 2014, Tang et al. 2014, Miranda et al. 2012, Moritz et al. 2012, Nowacki et al Fire may increase, because: Warmer/drier summers Increased mortality from stress, pests, events More frequent weather conditions that promote large fires …or maybe not, because: Fire suppression will continue Spring/early summer moisture Current regeneration of more mesic species Spatial patterns of land use and fragmentation

Species Range Shifts Sugar Maple Source: Louis Iverson et al. (US Forest Service) Low High Current Importance Value Low High

Species Range Shifts Low High White Oak Source: Louis Iverson et al. (US Forest Service) Current Importance Value Low High

Species Range Shifts Low High Quaking Aspen Source: Louis Iverson et al. (US Forest Service) Current Importance Value Low High

Hemlock wooly adelgid: Pest limited by cold temps Exotic Earthworms: Increase drought susceptibility Invasive Plants: Outcompete stressed trees Increased Stressors Many forests are already under stress from other causes. Climate change could make forests more susceptible to existing or new stressors. Images: US Forest Service and L. Mehrhoff (UConn: invasives.org)

Vulnerability by Forest Type Community TypePotential ImpactsAdaptive CapacityVulnerability Upland spruce-fir NegativeModerate-Low High Lowland conifers NegativeModerate-Low High Lowland-riparian hardwoods Moderate-NegativeModerate Moderate-High Aspen-birch Moderate-NegativeModerate-High Red pine Moderate-NegativeModerate-Low Moderate-High Jack pine Moderate-NegativeModerate-High Moderate Northern hardwoods Moderate-NegativeModerate-High Moderate White pine Moderate-NegativeHigh Moderate-Low Oak associations ModerateModerate-High Moderate- Low Source: Janowiak et al. 2014

Management Implications Quality & productivity Harvest operations Infrastructure Economics Wildlife habitat Recreation Cultural values Others?

Location, Location, Location Research and assessments describe broad trends but local conditions and management make the difference. Your knowledge and experience is crucial!

Questions?

Change in Annual Temperature, Observed Temperature Change (F)

Change in Annual Precipitation, Observed Precipitation Change (in)

Days Above 90ºF MRI ModelIPSL Model Source:

Streamflow Changes High-flow days become much more common in winter and spring Low-flow days become much more common in summer and fall Cherkauer et al. 2010

Vulnerability Extent Health/ Function Identity

Even More Information Climate Change Resource Center WI Initiative on Climate Change Impacts (WICCI)

Milankovich Cycles Climate change has happened before Climate change is a natural process (until now)