Coastal Cities at Risk (CCaR): Building Adaptive Capacity for Managing Climate Change in Coastal Megacities Professor Anond Snidvongs, Chulalongkorn University and Southeast Asia START Regional Research Center (SEA-START), Bangkok, Thailand Professor Gordon McBean, CM, OOnt, FRSC, The University of Western Ontario, London, Canada President- START International

CCaR Objectives To develop the knowledge base and enhance the capacity of mega-cities to successfully adapt to and when necessary cope with risks posed by the effects of climate change, including sea level rise, in the context of urban growth and development. Research Sub-Objectives A. Advance knowledge of climate change adaptation and disaster risk reduction: A1. Characterize climate-related hazards, vulnerability and risk; A2. Understand decision making processes in governance and society; and A3. Define, qualify and quantify the relationships between climate impacts, adaptation strategies and socio- economic implications. B. Develop strategies and methodologies for climate change adaptation: B1. Integrate adaptation and disaster risk reduction strategies and knowledge-based actions; and B2. Construct interdisciplinary simulation models to develop, test and validate these knowledge-based actions. C. Enhance practitioner and academic capacity and transfer knowledge: C1. Increase the numbers of highly-qualified people in Canada and abroad by mobilizing, exchanging, and translating knowledge; and C2. Transfer knowledge and capacity to a broad selection of communities and situations through workshops, effective communications, and parallel and follow-on projects with partners.

Linking Vulnerability-Adaptation-Risk Management with knowledge generation and sharing based on capacities, leading to Actions based on deliberation and analysis – knowledge-based actions.

CCaR Strategy Interdisciplinary - natural, engineering, socio-political- economic and health scientists Snidvongs - Director, Southeast Asia START Regional Center, Director, Climate Change Knowledge Management Center, National Science and Technology Development Agency; Technical Subcommittee of the National Committee on Climate Change Policy, Office of the Prime Minister, Assistant Professor, Department of Marine Science, Chulalongkorn University, Bangkok, Thailand McBean - Professor, Geography and Political Science, and Director of Policy Studies at the Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction, The University of Western Ontario, London, Ontario, Canada Adelekan - Senior Lecturer, University of Ibadan, Department of Geography Burton - Scientist Emeritus EC, Professor Emeritus, UToronto Davies - Professor, Economics and Institute Director, Economic Policy Research Institute (EPRI). Harford - Executive Director, ACT (Adaptation to Climate Change), SFU Hutanuwatr - Lecturer, Faculty of Architecture King Mongkut Institute of Technology Ladkrabang. Lannigan - Professor, Department of Pathology, Medical Leader, London Health Sciences Centre,

Yulo Loyzaga - Executive Director, Manila Observatory, Quezon City,Philippines Marome - Faculty of Architecture and Planning, Thammasat University Mortsch - Senior Researcher, Impacts and Adaptation; Assistant Adjunct Professor, University of Waterloo Faculty of Environment Perez - Climate Change Expert, Manila Observatory Porio - Professor, Department of Sociology-Anthropology, Ateneo de Manila University Simonovic - Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering and Director of Engineering Studies, Institute for Catastrophic Loss Reduction Salamanca - Agriculture, Resources and Environment Unit, AIT Extension, Asian Institute of Technology Stewart - Head, Department of Environment and Geography, University of Manitoba Trisirisatayawong - Chair of PhD Program, Dept. of Survey Engineering, Chulalongkorn University Vicente - Program Manager, Geomatics for Environment and Development, Manila Observatory, Ateneo de Manila University, Wahab - Senior Lecturer/Acting Head of Department of Urban and Regional Planning, Faculty of The Social Sciences, University of Ibadan Whitfield - Adjunct Professor of Earth Science, SFU; Scientist Emeritus EC Canada]

CCaR Strategy Cities - Bangkok, Lagos, Manila, Vancouver Range of climate-weather, socio-cultural-economic characteristics; representative of other cities; and provide enhanced research opportunities through ongoing efforts. Strategic Partnerships with:  START  Integrated Research on Disaster Risk Program  others

Vancouver Lagos Bangkok Manila UWO, UW, UT SFU UM Working with START and IRDR IRDR IPO IRDR ICoE The Canadian Team Cities and International Team

Theme 1 - Characterization of vulnerability and risk Theme leaders: Adelekan and Davies with Lannigan, Loyzaga, Mortsch, Porio, Mills, Kovacs, Hutanuwatr, Wahab and Salamanca Personal, health, economic; and response strategies: climate change adaptation, resilience, insurance – How can vulnerabilities (e.g. population, infrastructure, economic activity and livelihood, health, etc.) best be determined and portrayed in a way that provides the critical information required by urban planners and policy-makers? How will climate change and extreme events challenge the health of the urban population, including through impacts on water and sanitation systems? How can appropriate adaptation measures best be identified, evaluated, and prioritized? A key element of this research will be the development of economic analysis to feed into theme 4 (see below).

Theme 2 - Characterization of hazards Theme leaders: Stewart and Perez with Simonovic, Whitfield, Snidvongs, Mortsch, Trisirisatayawong and Vicente Cyclones-typhoons – wind and precipitation; flooding – riverine and coastal; sea level rise How can risks arising from the combined effects of sea level rise, climate change, and coastal settlement be best defined and characterized at the urban level in terms useful to planners and officials? Extreme events must be modelled from downscaled information of climate models in a way that is site-specific and linked with the riverine, local topographic and oceanic conditions. What are the people and places at most risk and why; and how may the risks change with time? Critical threshold approaches to understanding climate change risks and impacts (or similar) will be used, as well as the traditional use of downscaled GCM information.

Theme 3 - Understanding decision making in governance and society Theme leaders: Burton and Loyzaga with McBean, Snidvongs, Adelekan, Mills and Marome political, economic, social factors - The research under this Theme will be conducted in close cooperation with government institutions and civil society. Information developed under Themes 1, 2, and 4 will be used in an interactive and iterative manner so that Themes 1, 2, and 4 will benefits from government and civil society understandings and constraints. This activity will be organized as part of workshops and meetings

Theme 4 - City System Dynamics Risk Simulator Theme leaders: Simonovic, Davies, Lannigan, Snidvongs, Wahab, Marome, and Vicente Risk assessment and modelling and provision of evidence-based scientific advice require natural and social scientists to collaborate. Modelling of risk concerns the development of holistic models incorporating natural processes, infrastructure, societal factors and behaviour. These are not separate but interacting risk factors that need to be monitored and modelled together. Political, social and economic factors can lead to populations being in harm’s way or can limit communities’ capacities for protecting themselves.

Theme 5 - Response strategies leading to Knowledge-based Actions Theme leaders: Snidvongs, McBean and all the team. Through the research results in Themes 1-2-3, tested in Theme 4, response strategies can be developed and tested. Decision makers will be involved to evolve these strategies into knowledge-based action. Review will be made of lessons learned from major urban studies and projects in the region, and elsewhere, concerned with urban adaptation. The response strategies will focus on disaster prevention through risk reduction, although not fully omitting response and recovery strategies. – people-centred integrated early warning systems with appropriate response strategies – adaptation of infrastructure, planning, building codes and standards and zoning bylaws for development

Theme 6 - Knowledge Transfer and Capacity Building– Theme leaders: McBean, Snidvongs, Harford, and all the team. Knowledge transfer and capacity building will be activities from the beginning. Stakeholders will be involved and the transfer of knowledge, in both ways – from stakeholders to research team and vice-versa – will begin. Analysis will be carried out to identify decision-making mechanisms such as policy, regulations, practices and standards that can help to drive disaster preparation and build adaptive capacity, and recommendations made to significant decision-making and research bodies as appropriate. The connections - raise awareness of conditions and expert knowledge in other countries, offering unique insights into risk management mechanisms. Role of industry in enhancing adaptive capacity, including insurers, developers, utilities, etc.

Training opportunities Masters3Department of Geography, University of Ibadan NigeriaSS&H 1Asian Institute of Technology ThailandNS&E 1Chulalongkorn University ThailandSS&H PhD2Geography/Social Science-UWO CanadaSS&H 1Economics/Social Science-UWO CanadaSS&H 1Medicine - UWO CanadaHealth 2Civil Engineering - UWO CanadaNS&E 1Environment - Waterloo CanadaSS&H 1Earth Sciences - SFU CanadaNS&E 1Geography - Environment-Manitoba CanadaNS&E 1Department of Urban and Regional Planning, University of Ibadan Nigeria 2Department of Geography, University of Ibadan NigeriaSS&H 3Asian Institute of Technology ThailandNS&E 2Department of Sociology-Anthropology, Ateneo de Manila University PhilippinesSS&H 2Chulalongkorn University ThailandNS&E 1Faculty of Architecture and Planning, Thammasat University ThailandSS&H

Ethical research issues Sensitivity of governments – at all levels Rights of individuals, state, private sector

CCaR Program outcomes CCaR will be a direct contribution of Canada towards the commitments of the Copenhagen Accord and the Bali Action Plan in that it will develop capacity, transfer knowledge and provide the basis for improved adaptation action plans and the assessment of financial needs. Enhanced adaptation and risk reduction capacity, better planned safer cities and reduced socio-economic impacts as the climate changes. Methods of hazard and vulnerability assessment, adaptation identification, planning and implementation - transferable techniques and strategies to many coastal cities Partners – and follow-on activities SFU ACT, ICLR and the provinces, START, IRDR, … A lasting legacy - Highly Qualified Personnel in Canada and in our country partners