Cohort religiosity: does it stay at a stable level everywhere and across all cohorts? Marion Burkimsher University of Lausanne

Question: Does the level of religiosity of any particular cohort stay at a stable level everywhere and across all cohorts? Answer: almost! This presentation focuses on countries where this generalisation is NOT true!

26 countries studied Western Europe Austria Belgium Denmark Finland France Germany Great Britain Ireland Italy Netherlands Norway Portugal Spain Sweden Switzerland Eastern Europe Bulgaria Czech Republic Estonia Georgia Hungary Latvia Poland Romania Russian Federation Slovakia Slovenia - Looked at countries where time series of data available

Definitions Level of religiosity is measured by a single variable: “How often do you attend religious services?” (Not belief or affiliation or a composite measure) Attender is someone who says they attend a religious service at least once a month Secularisation - if level of attendance is declining Revival - if attendance rates are rising

Age, cohort, period variations Age is an effect caused by a person’s age: trends will be caused because they get older over time Cohort effects are the influences of living through similar experiences of everyone born in eg. the 1950s, 1970s… Period effects affect everyone in a country in a fairly similar manner Voas and others have found that cohort differentials are the most important drivers of secularisation

Data: WVS 1981, 1990, 1999 ESS 2006

Problem of age effects and ‘censoring’ in cohort studies If we look at a a 10 year cohort band, eg people born in the 1960s, then at the 1981 WVS survey, they were aged But surveys only include those over 16 or 18 - this varies between survey and between country. So for the example above, only the 16/18-21 year olds were surveyed. As age effects may be quite important at the “young” and “old” ends of the spectrum, then the effects of censoring can be important when the time trend graphs include these extremities.

Data sources World Values Survey, WVS: mostly 1981, 1990, East European countries joined from European Social Survey, ESS: 2002, 2004, 2006, 2008 (European Values Study, Generations and Gender Survey) Countries were included in this study if they had data from a minimum of 3 surveys

Comparison with similar studies Similarity to David Voas’s work  Looking at measure of religiosity by cohort Differences to David Voas’s work  Single measure of religiosity, not composite  More countries analysed

About the graphs The cohorts born in the 1950s, 1960s and 1970s are plotted, ie these are all the post-war generation The 1950s cohorts are plotted with solid lines The 1960s cohorts are plotted with dashed lines The 1970s cohorts are plotted with dotted lines The confidence limits of most data points (in the 10-40% range) with typical sample sizes, are +/- 4%

In 1981: 1950s cohort were s cohort were in 2008: 1950s cohort were s cohort were s cohort were 29-38

Observations Ireland shows greatest secularisation: affects all cohorts; biggest differentials between cohorts Poland shows least differential between cohorts; secularisation occurred mainly in the 1990s Spanish secularisation occurred for 1950s and 1960s cohorts since 1998; some inter-cohort differentials Most secularisation in Belgium prior to 2002; inter-cohort differentials small and declining Modest falls across time period for Switzerland; small inter-cohort differentials These are predominantly Catholic countries (except Switzerland)

Observations Some growth in attendance rates in decades before 2000, then sharp fall but rise again since 2002 / 2004 in Italy and Portugal 1970s cohort markedly more secular than older cohorts Austria experiencing more secularisation than Italy and Portugal

In 1981: 1950s cohort were s cohort were in 2008: 1950s cohort were s cohort were s cohort were 29-38

Observations Narrow band of attendance rates for all these 6 countries; this becomes even narrower from 1981 to present; currently 6-12% In 1980s more of these countries/cohorts declined in attendance rates than increased (6 v 2) In 1990s more countries/cohorts increased in attendance than decreased (10 v 5) Since 2000, no clear trend, almost all data points 9% +/- 4% ie. within confidence limits of observation

Observations Sustained growth in attendance rates over time, across (almost) all cohorts Latvia and Russia converging on attendance rates of 13-16% in 2008; would appear that growth could continue Romania attendance rates converging on 37-40%; potential for further growth more debatable Revival has affected all cohorts in Georgia In Georgia, youngest cohorts are significantly more religious than older cohorts: this is an unusual pattern

Observations Variable trends prior to 2000; some growth in attendance in most cohorts in these 3 countries since 1999 / 2002 Convergence of attendance rates of all cohorts to a common level, but somewhat different for each country; 9-11% in Finland; 14-16% Hungary; 16-17% Britain. Could this apparent convergence be explained by better quality sampling in surveys?

Observations In (almost) all countries in both western and eastern Europe the cohorts born in the 1940s are less religious than those born in the 1930s AND those born in the 1950s are less religious than those born in the 1940s. In Georgia, the attendance pattern is reversed, with each younger cohort being more religious than the next older one. In Bulgaria, the 1940s cohorts are slightly more religious than the 1930s, but the 1950s cohorts are less religious. It would seem that there was a sea change in the post-war generations compared those born before or during the 2nd World War.

Overall conclusions  In countries where young people are at least as religious as older people, then growth is commonly happening. This is most marked in Georgia, but it is also seen in Romania, Latvia and Russia.  In countries where most secularisation is happening, then period effects are causing a decline in religiosity across many cohorts - AND there are large inter-cohort differentials. This is seen mainly in the predominantly Catholic countries (which often had higher attendance rates at the start of the period). Not all Catholic countries are being affected as strongly.  In many countries there appears to be convergence to a certain level of religious observance; in the most secular countries this band is generally 6-12% of the younger cohorts. In other countries, there is convergence at a higher level.  The two major events that have affected religious observance were the Second World War and the fall of communism.

Countries not graphed in this presentation Western Europe: Germany, Netherlands Eastern Europe: Bulgaria, Slovakia, Slovenia Trends were less clear than for other countries described!

Thank you!