Education, Participation, and the Revival of U.S. Economic Growth Dale Jorgenson, Mun Ho, Jon Samuels ** Harvard University, and ** BEA World KLEMS Conference.

Slides:



Advertisements
Similar presentations
First World KLEMS conference
Advertisements

THE EU IN THE WORLD ECONOMY By Dale W. Jorgenson Harvard University March 15, European Union.
BLS U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics Labor Input and Capital Services: BLS contribution to KLEMS production accounts for the United States Susan Fleck,
Dale Jorgenson, Mun Ho, Jon Samuels
KLEMS and the NIPAs J. Steven Landefeld, Director World KLEMS Conference Harvard University August 20 th, 2010.
Labor Force Participation Rate by gender Male Female.
Western New York Region Census 2000 Western New York Region Census 2000.
Long-term Estimates of U.S. Productivity and Growth by Dale W. Jorgenson, Mun S. Ho, and Jon D. Samuels ** Harvard University, and ** BEA The views expressed.
UNDERSTANDING THE KNOWLEDGE ECONOMY By Dale W. Jorgenson Samuel W. Morris University Professor Harvard University
Table 9.2Trend in Real GDP per Capita and Productivity (annual rates) Growth in real GDPin output per capitaper worker hour Year (%) (%) 1960–
Integration, KLEMS and the NIPAs J. Steven Landefeld, Director World KLEMS Conference Harvard University August 20 th, 2010.
Copyright © 2009 Pearson Education, Inc Topic 1. Chapter 2 Overview of Labor Market.
The Role of Latin America in the World Economy By Dale W. Jorgenson Harvard University October 6, 2008 Seminario Internacional Fundacion BBVA – Ivie 2008.
Copyright © 2010 by the McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. McGraw-Hill/Irwin Chapter 17 Labor Productivity: Wages, Prices, and Employment.
1 The Industry Origins of the Second Surge of U.S. Productivity Growth Kevin J. Stiroh* Federal Reserve Bank of New York May 2006 *These comments are the.
CHAPTER 7 Measuring Employment and Unemployment
Copyright McGraw-Hill/Irwin, 2002 Growth Economics Production Possibilities Analysis Supply Determinants of Real Output Growth in the AD-AS Model.
What’s Happening on Main Street Montana Main Street Montana Project Presentation Given at the League of Cities and Towns Conference at the Red Lion Helena,
Lecture 2. Understanding China’s Growth.. Introduction. Despite China’s remarkable growth, there is not much literature trying to explain its very high.
What’s Happening on Main Street Montana Main Street Montana Project Roundtable Great Falls, Montana June 12, 2013.
Measuring Economic Activity
What’s Happening on Main Street Montana Adapted from the Main Street Montana Project Presentation Helena, Montana June 27, 2013.
Chapter 17: Labor Productivity: Wages, Prices, and Employment
Information Technology and the World Economy By Dale W. Jorgenson Harvard University
Information Technology and the World Economy By Dale W. Jorgenson Harvard University May 17, 2004.
Munich Economic Summit May 20th 2011 quo vadis social security ?
Chapter 2 Measuring economic activity
Demographic Change and the Workplace Demography is Destiny, Open Classroom Northeastern University, School of Public Policy and Urban Affairs February.
Economic Growth in the Information Age By Dale W. Jorgenson Harvard University Saturday, October 12, 2002.
Integrated Industry-Level Production Account for the United States: Intellectual Property Products and the 2007 NAICS Matthew Russell, Jon.
Copyright © 2002 Pearson Education, Inc. Slide 1.
Lecture 2. Understanding China’s Growth.. Introduction. Despite China’s remarkable growth, there is not much literature trying to explain its very high.
2015 Labor Day Report: Annual Report on the State of Montana’s Economy Barbara Wagner Chief Economist Labor Arbitration Conference October 8, 2015 Fairmont,
Long-run equity returns 1. In the long run total return on equities approximates to initial dividend yield plus growth rate of dividends and growth rate.
Economic Empowerment of Women on Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa 2 nd International Conference on Sustainable Development in Africa Dakar, Senegal;
Economics 13-4 Economic Growth pages ECONOMIC GROWTH ESSENTIAL QUESTIONS: What are two measures of economic growth? Why is economic growth important?
I Source: U.S. Census Bureau Analysis by Kentucky Population Research, State Data Center, University of Louisville.
Economics 1490 GROWTH AND CRISIS IN THE WORLD ECONOMY with Professor Dale W. Jorgenson Lecture 26: December 3, 2015 Outlook for World Economic Growth Harvard.
U.S. Hispanic Population: Population Size and Composition.
Developments in the estimation of the value of human capital for Australia Presented by Hui Wei Australian Bureau of Statistics Australian Bureau of Statistics.
1.02 ~ ECONOMIC ACTIVITIES AND CONDITIONS CHAPTER 2 MEASURING ECONOMIC ACTIVITY.
Sectors Academy: Colorado’s Economic and Demographic Environment Alexandra Hall, Director Dee Funkhouser, Manager Labor Market Information Colorado Department.
ECONOMIC GROWTH Mr. Griffin AP Economics - Macro: VI.
ECONOMIC GROWTH CHAPTER-4 ECONOMIC GROWTH CHAPTER-4 1.
A PROTOTYPE INDUSTRY-LEVEL PRODUCTION ACCOUNT FOR THE UNITED STATES, Dale Jorgenson, Mun Ho, Jon Samuels Harvard University Asia KLEMS 2012 Data.
THE WORLD ECONOMY: PERFORMANCE AND OUTLOOK by Dale W. Jorgenson Harvard University World KLEMS Open Session: Europe’s.
China KLEMS Database —— The 2 nd Asia KLEMS Database Management workshop Ren Ruoen Sun Linlin Fan Maoqing Zheng Haitao Li xiaoqin.
U.S. Growth and Productivity using new National Accounts with Intellectual Property Dale Jorgenson, Mun Ho, Jon Samuels ** Harvard University, and ** BEA.
The Rise of Asia and the Transformation of the World Economy by Dale W. Jorgenson Samuel W. Morris University Professor Harvard University
Section 1: Trends of Hispanic Employment in Construction.
for Advanced Economies
Japan-U.S. Productivity Comparisons: PPPs for Inputs and Outputs
Section 1: Trends of Hispanic Employment in Construction
Labor Productivity: Wages, Prices, and Employment
GROWTH AND CRISIS IN THE Outlook for the World Economy
Table 4-1 Average Per Capita Growth Rates in Selected Industrialized Countries, 1980-Present COPYRIGHT 2001 by South-Western, a division of Thomson.
Lecture 2. THE WORLD ECONOMY SINCE 1990
Lecture 22. INVESTING IN HUMAN CAPITAL
Lecture 11. U.S. Growth Resurgence
How E-Commerce Improves Brick and Mortar Stores Explaining the Post-2002 Productivity Slowdown Rachel Soloveichik.
Industry Productivity Growth in China and Prospects for Growth
A Global Integrated Industry-Level Production Account
Industrial Origins of the US productivity revival
The Big Questions of Economic Growth
Recent U.S. Economic Performance and Prospects for the Future
Lecture 26. World Economic Outlook
GROWTH AND CRISIS IN THE U.S. Growth Resurgence and European Slowdown
By Mun S. Ho* Based on work with Dale Jorgenson* and Jon Samuels**
EXHIBIT 1 Hypothetical and Actual Business Cycles
Productivity Productivity Erik Veldhuizen.
Presentation transcript:

Education, Participation, and the Revival of U.S. Economic Growth Dale Jorgenson, Mun Ho, Jon Samuels ** Harvard University, and ** BEA World KLEMS Conference 2016 BBVA Foundation, Madrid, May 23-24, 2016 The views expressed in this paper are solely those of the authors and are not necessarily those of the Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce.

Education, Participation, and the Revival of U.S. Economic Growth Sources of U.S. Economic Growth from a Prototype Industry Account BEA/BLS Industry Production Account Education, Aging and Labor Force Participation Future U.S. Economic Growth,

LABOR INPUT Contribution of Education, Age, and Gender to Labor Quality Growth Educational Attainment of the Labor Force Labor Force Participation Compensation trends

LABOR INPUT Effective labor input = Hours worked * Quality Quality depends on age-sex-education composition of workers and their relative wages

Employment participation (excluding unemp.)

Employment Participation Rates by Gender, Age, and Education

SOURCES OF U.S. ECONOMIC GROWTH Contribution of Industry Groups to Productivity Growth Sources of U.S. Economic Growth, Sources of U.S. Economic Growth,

PROJECTIONS OF FUTURE U.S. ECONOMIC GROWTH Contribution of Industry Groups to Productivity Growth Labor Productivity Projections: Low Growth, Base Case, High Growth Potential Growth Projections: Low Growth, Base Case, High Growth

Projection method and assumptions Labor Productivity = Capital quality + (land share)*Hours + Labor quality + TFP (IT producers) + TFP (IT users) + TFP (non-IT) Long run condition: Output growth = K R growth Hours = Population * Participation * weekly hours GDP = Labor Productivity + Hours

Projections of participation rates

3 projection scenarios: Base, Low, High Assumptions common to all 3 scenarios: capital/GDP, IT-Prod VA/GDP, IT-using VA/GDP, hours/week LowBase caseHigh Work Participation25% CITrend proj.75% CI Resulting Labor quality growth0.16% p.a.0.15%0.09% Capital quality growth mean TFP growth mean Implied capital deepening0.59% p.a.0.56%0.84%

Table 9. Comparison of growth projections (% per year) Source Projection periodALPHoursGDPTFP Capital Deepng Labor quality CBO(2015) (NFB) Fernald (2014)long run Gordon(2014)25-40 years1.3 JHS(2016)base case

CONCLUSIONS Productivity Accounts for Twenty Percent of U.S. Economic Growth IT Accounts for Almost All Productivity Growth During the Great Recession Restoration of U.S. Economic Growth Will Require a Revival of Investment Raising Participation Rates of Young, Less-Educated Workers Will Also Be Essential

Extra slides

Share of male population with BA degrees by age; 2000, 2010 Censuses and projected