GOES Users’ Conference IV May 1-3, 2006 Broomfield, CO Prepared by Integrated Work Strategies, LLC 1 GOES USERS’ CONFERENCE IV: Discussion Highlights Numerical Weather Prediction James Partain, NOAA/NWS Alaska Region

GOES Users’ Conference IV May 1-3, 2006 Broomfield, CO Prepared by Integrated Work Strategies, LLC 2 1) How do you think GOES-R data will help fulfill the vision for significantly improved forecasts by 2020? “Improved temporal, spatial, and spectral resolution will lead to improved environmental forecasts of high-impact events.” “Improved temporal, spatial, and spectral resolution will lead to improved environmental forecasts of high-impact events.” Improved moisture flux information (incl. 3D winds)Improved moisture flux information (incl. 3D winds) Anticipated improvements help frame, and are framed by, what the observing system will look like in 2015Anticipated improvements help frame, and are framed by, what the observing system will look like in 2015 Question can be answered by stating as “To improve forecasts by 2020, we need to …, and GOES-R contributes as follows:”Question can be answered by stating as “To improve forecasts by 2020, we need to …, and GOES-R contributes as follows:” History shows us that many benefits of planned GOES-R capabilities cannot be anticipatedHistory shows us that many benefits of planned GOES-R capabilities cannot be anticipated

GOES Users’ Conference IV May 1-3, 2006 Broomfield, CO Prepared by Integrated Work Strategies, LLC 3 2) What studies are needed to ensure that operational NWP models will be ready to accept and use data from GOES-R? “We need a well-vetted (and funded) science plan.” “We need a well-vetted (and funded) science plan.” role and sequence/planning of running OSSEs (including optimal use of GOES and non-GOES datasets)role and sequence/planning of running OSSEs (including optimal use of GOES and non-GOES datasets) error covariance matrices in observations (radiance comes first)error covariance matrices in observations (radiance comes first) distinguish & determine instrumental, representativeness error (including ozone, chemicals, dust, and tropospheric CO 2 )distinguish & determine instrumental, representativeness error (including ozone, chemicals, dust, and tropospheric CO 2 ) engineering question: spatial vs spectral, including cloud dataengineering question: spatial vs spectral, including cloud data how to get better at using temporal and discontinuous info?how to get better at using temporal and discontinuous info?

GOES Users’ Conference IV May 1-3, 2006 Broomfield, CO Prepared by Integrated Work Strategies, LLC 4 3) What sample data sets should be used to simulate GOES-R data (model output, NPP, NPOESS, NASA research satellites, MSG/MET-8) in the numerical models prior to the launch of GOES-R? “Leverage existing high spectral and temporal datasets.” “Leverage existing high spectral and temporal datasets.” AIRS (to represent grating systems)AIRS (to represent grating systems) IASI (to represent interferometers)IASI (to represent interferometers) SEVIRI (to represent multi-spectral/temporal)SEVIRI (to represent multi-spectral/temporal) MODISMODIS NAST-INAST-I NPP/VIIRS/CRISNPP/VIIRS/CRIS surface emmisivitysurface emmisivity remote sensing from aircraftremote sensing from aircraft computer-simulated atmospheres for OSSEs (including precipitation, clouds, and other “real” parameters)computer-simulated atmospheres for OSSEs (including precipitation, clouds, and other “real” parameters)

GOES Users’ Conference IV May 1-3, 2006 Broomfield, CO Prepared by Integrated Work Strategies, LLC 5 4) What additional hardware/software/communications are needed for NWP to prepare for GOES-R? “New procurement modes and priorities are needed – now.” “New procurement modes and priorities are needed – now.” much greater computational capacity needed to conduct the OSSEs, etc (and/or new paradigms, like compression)much greater computational capacity needed to conduct the OSSEs, etc (and/or new paradigms, like compression) archival capability of the results of the assimilation & researcharchival capability of the results of the assimilation & research regional vs national modeling, public vs private sector assimilationregional vs national modeling, public vs private sector assimilation need for better, faster, more specific short-wave radiative transfer modelsneed for better, faster, more specific short-wave radiative transfer models how will data be going to partners/users, role of NOAA, contractors & vendors, security issues for partnershow will data be going to partners/users, role of NOAA, contractors & vendors, security issues for partners

GOES Users’ Conference IV May 1-3, 2006 Broomfield, CO Prepared by Integrated Work Strategies, LLC 6 5) What work needs to be accomplished so the high spatial and temporal information on GOES-R will be included in regional/mesoscale models? “Need to utilize GOES-R data in truly mesoscale analysis & forecast models (e.g. including non- linearities)” “Need to utilize GOES-R data in truly mesoscale analysis & forecast models (e.g. including non- linearities)” current variational analysis schemes cannot capture the mesoscale detail and non-linear processescurrent variational analysis schemes cannot capture the mesoscale detail and non-linear processes new, creative (e.g. hybrid) approaches will need to be developed to deal with mesoscale non-linearitynew, creative (e.g. hybrid) approaches will need to be developed to deal with mesoscale non-linearity better understanding of how to use the data over land (and in the lower troposphere) – e.g. surface emissivity, skin temperaturebetter understanding of how to use the data over land (and in the lower troposphere) – e.g. surface emissivity, skin temperature

GOES Users’ Conference IV May 1-3, 2006 Broomfield, CO Prepared by Integrated Work Strategies, LLC 7 6) What work needs to be accomplished so the high spatial and temporal information on GOES-R will be included in regional/mesoscale models? “Need to utilize GOES-R data in truly mesoscale analysis & forecast models (e.g. including non- linearities)” … continued “Need to utilize GOES-R data in truly mesoscale analysis & forecast models (e.g. including non- linearities)” … continued how to best use GOES data to define initial conditions & ensemble boundshow to best use GOES data to define initial conditions & ensemble bounds Incorporating satellite information in modeled cloud microphysicsIncorporating satellite information in modeled cloud microphysics better understand needs for coastal modeling/forecasting for ecosystemsbetter understand needs for coastal modeling/forecasting for ecosystems

GOES Users’ Conference IV May 1-3, 2006 Broomfield, CO Prepared by Integrated Work Strategies, LLC 8 7) What other questions or issues would you like to have the group discuss? “GOES-R and: Nowcasting, Instrument Design, Socio-economic Impacts” “GOES-R and: Nowcasting, Instrument Design, Socio-economic Impacts” other products that aren’t specifically NWP (e.g. by-products of assimilation, nowcast/watch/warning information) – natural tie in to Decision Aidsother products that aren’t specifically NWP (e.g. by-products of assimilation, nowcast/watch/warning information) – natural tie in to Decision Aids channel selection for instrument design and data assimilation (NWP community should have some input)channel selection for instrument design and data assimilation (NWP community should have some input) how long after satellite launch will it take to measure the impacts of the data (e.g. science leading to social impacts)?how long after satellite launch will it take to measure the impacts of the data (e.g. science leading to social impacts)?

GOES Users’ Conference IV May 1-3, 2006 Broomfield, CO Prepared by Integrated Work Strategies, LLC 9 8) How can NOAA assist you with these issues? “Resources & requirements for program stability” “Resources & requirements for program stability” Funding for computational and communications capacity!Funding for computational and communications capacity! Settle on requirements!Settle on requirements!