AICC March 3, 2016 THE 2016 PRESIDENTIAL PRIMARIES 1

 Clinton won Massachusetts, where Sanders was the favorite.  Trump came in first or second in every contest, winning seven states.  Cruz won three states: Texas, with Alaska and Oklahoma being particular surprises.  Rubio won one state, coming in second in Georgia and Virginia and third in five contests.  Kasich took second place in Vermont.  Carson dropping out. SUPER TUESDAY SURPRISES 2

 Trump on Speaker of the House Paul Ryan: “Paul Ryan, I don’t know him well, but I’m sure I’m going to get along great with him, and if I don’t? He’s gonna have to pay a big price, OK?”  Commentary Presidential Candidate Marco Rubio: “He’s like the kid who ran for class president, only to wake up the next day and realize he didn’t have a date to prom.” SUPER TUESDAY STATEMENTS 3

Total Number of Republican Delegates: 2,742 Number of Delegates Needed to Win: 1,237 4 THE REPUBLICAN NOMINATING PROCESS How are Republican delegates assigned? Some states use a proportional system, some use winner-take-all (only as of March 15 th ), and some use a hybrid of the two. Who are Republican superdelegates? Three members of each state's RNC committee. They are required to vote for the candidate that won the primary in their state.

CandidateStates WonTotal Delegates Donald TrumpNH, SC, NV82 Ted CruzIA17 Marco Rubio16 John Kasich6 Ben Carson4 PRIOR TO SUPER TUESDAY: REPUBLICANS 5

Total Delegates in Play:595 CandidateDelegates Picked UpStates Won Donald Trump234AL, AR, GA, MA, TN, VT, VA Ted Cruz209AK, OK, TX Marco Rubio*90MN John Kasich19 Ben Carson3 SUPER TUESDAY RESULTS: REPUBLICANS 6 *Rubio did not make the 20% threshold in Texas, Massachusetts, Vermont, Alaska, and Alabama, and thus gets no delegates from those states.

CandidateNew Delegate Count (% toward nomination) Total States Won Donald Trump 338 (27.3%) NH, SC, NV, AK, AR, GA, MA, TN, VT, VA Ted Cruz 226 (18.6%) IA, AK, OK, TX Marco Rubio 110 (8.8%) MN John Kasich 25 (2.2%) Ben Carson 8 7 AFTER SUPER TUESDAY: REPUBLICANS

Candidate1 st Place2 nd Place3 rd Place or Lower Donald Trump731 Ted Cruz353 Marco Rubio128 John Kasich029 Ben Carson0011 SUPER TUESDAY STATES WON: REPUBLICANS 8

DateState#of DelegatesContest TypeAllocation Method March 5 th Kansas40CaucusProportional Kentucky*46CaucusProportional Louisiana*46PrimaryProportional Maine23Caucus Proportional w/ WTA trigger March 8 th Hawaii23CaucusProportional Idaho19PrimaryProportional w/WTA trigger Mississippi40PrimaryProportional Michigan*32Primary Proportional w/ WTA trigger THE NEXT RACES: REPUBLICANS 8 OUT OF 13 ARE CLOSED PRIMARIES 9

DateState#of DelegatesContest Type Allocation Method March 15 th Florida*99Primary Winner-take-all (WTA) Illinois*69PrimaryHybrid Missouri52PrimaryHybrid North Carolina* 72PrimaryProportional Ohio*66Primary Winner-take-all (WTA) March 22 nd Arizona58Primary Winner-take-all (WTA) Idaho40Primary Proportional w/ WTA trigger 10 THE NEXT RACES: REPUBLICANS (CONTINUED)

Donald Trump Strengths: Broad appeal, especially among working-class whites (MI, PA, WI) Consistent media presence Starting to look “presidential” Likely to be endorsed by FL governor Rick Scott Weaknesses: Picked a fight with Paul Ryan Likely to face concerted opposition from GOP Not viewed as “presidential” Ted Cruz ($) Strengths: Strong conservative message Most viable alternative to Trump Weaknesses: Generally disliked Marco Rubio ($) Strengths: Establishment ties and moderate image Weaknesses: In over his head His attacks brought him down to the level of Trump STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES MOVING FORWARD: REPUBLICANS 11

Total Number of Democratic Delegates: 4,763 Total Number of Superdelegates: 717 (15%) Number of Delegates Needed to Win: 2,382 (2,742 R) 12 THE DEMOCRATS’ NOMINATING PROCESS How are Democratic delegates assigned? Proportionally. Democratic candidates receive delegates in proportion to their vote share in a state’s primary/caucus. How are Democratic delegates assigned? Proportionally. Democratic candidates receive delegates in proportion to their vote share in a state’s primary/caucus.

CandidateStates WonDelegatesSuperdelegatesTotal Hillary ClintonIA, NV, SC Bernie SandersNH PRIOR TO SUPER TUESDAY: DEMOCRATS. 13

Total Delegates in Play:865 CandidateDelegates Picked UpStates Won Hillary Clinton504AL, AR, GA, MA, TN, TX, VA Bernie Sanders340CO, MN, OK, VT SUPER TUESDAY RESULTS: DEMOCRATS *Figures include superdelegates 14

CandidateNew Delegate Count (% to nomination) Hillary Clinton 1052* (43%) Bernie Sanders 427* (17.9%) 15 AFTER SUPER TUESDAY: DEMOCRATS *Includes superdelegates.

CandidateTotal States Won Hillary ClintonIA, NV, SC, AL, AR, GA, MA, TN, TX, VA Bernie SandersNH, CO, MN, OK, VT 16 DEMOCRATS’ STATES WON

DateState# of DelegatesContest Type Allocation Method March 5 th Kansas37CaucusProportional Louisiana*59PrimaryProportional Nebraska30CaucusProportional March 6 th Maine30CaucusProportional March 8 th Michigan*147PrimaryProportional Mississippi41PrimaryProportional March 15 th Florida*246PrimaryProportional Illinois*182PrimaryProportional Missouri84PrimaryProportional North Carolina*121PrimaryProportional Ohio*159PrimaryProportional THE NEXT RACES: DEMOCRATS 17

DateState# of DelegatesContest TypeAllocation Method March 22 nd Arizona85PrimaryProportional Idaho27CaucusProportional Utah37CaucusProportional March 26 th Alaska20CaucusProportional Hawaii34CaucusProportional Washington*118CaucusProportional 18 THE NEXT RACES: DEMOCRATS (CONTINUED)

Hillary ClintonStrengths: Bigger primaries coming up will work to her advantage Significant strength among minorities Weaknesses: Rough patch in primaries before March 15 th Weaker among white Democrats Bernie SandersStrengths: Flush with cash – raised over $42 M in February (vs. Rubio’s $6.5 M) Strong among white Democrats Able to stay in race to influence Democratic party platform Weaknesses: Poor showing among minorities Electability and appeal in general election STRENGTHS AND WEAKNESSES MOVING FORWARD: DEMOCRATS 19

Donald TrumpStrengths: Strong appeal for those dissatisfied with Washington A nontraditional candidate who ignores convention Changes the electoral map, putting MI, WI, and PA in play Track record of success in business Republican voter turnout up over 2012 Weaknesses Volatile and often offensive to large demographics Viewed by some as un-presidential Grandiose plans difficult to implement Hillary ClintonStrengths: Highly experienced “Steady hand” Campaigning on proposals that can be achieved Weaknesses: Viewed as dishonest and untrustworthy Ongoing investigation of State Department s LOOKING TO THE GENERAL: TRUMP VS. CLINTON 20

CandidateCapital GainsCorporate Income TaxEconomic Impact Donald Trump Eliminates the net ACA investment income surtax. - Lowers top corporate rate to 15%. - Ends deferral of overseas corporate income. - Taxes pass-through business income at 15%. Cuts revenues by $12 trillion over next decade. Ted Cruz Lowers rate on capital gains and dividends income to 10%. - Replaces corporate income tax with 16% business transfer tax (VAT). - Taxes pass-through business income at 10%. Cuts revenues by $3.6 trillion over next decade. *Proposes to abolish the IRS and impose a flat tax. Marco Rubio Lowers rate on capital gains and dividends income to 0%. - Lowers the top corporate rate to 25%. - Taxes pass-through business income at 25%. Cuts revenues by $6 trillion over next decade. ON THE ISSUES: TAXES 21

CandidateCapital Gains Corporate Income Tax Other TaxesEconomic Impact Hillary Clinton - 4% surtax on income over $5 million. - Raises rates on medium-term capital gains (held for <6 years) to between 24% and 39.6%. Strengthens rules preventing inversions. - Enacts the Buffett Rule. - Taxes carried interest at ordinary income rates. Raise revenue by $498 billion over next decade. Reduce GDP by 1%. Bernie Sanders Taxes capital gains & dividends at ordinary income rates for households with incomes >$250,000. Curb corporate inversions. Taxes carried interest at ordinary income rates. Increase revenues by $13.6 trillion over next decade. Reduce GDP by 9.5%. ON THE ISSUES: TAXES 22

 Republicans call for the repeal of Obamacare.  Trump’s position:  Repeal the ACA;  Allow purchase of insurance across state lines;  Expand health savings accounts;  Oppose cuts to Medicare/Social Security;  Block grant Medicaid;  Allow individuals a tax exemption for purchasing health insurance; and,  Import drugs (no competitive bidding). REPUBLICANS ON THE ISSUES: HEALTHCARE 23

 Clinton  Wants to keep, expand, and reform Obamacare.  Sanders  Proposes to replace Obamacare with single-payer, universal health insurance under “Medicare for all.” 24 DEMOCRATS ON THE ISSUES: HEALTHCARE

 Republicans: Stronger immigration restrictions  Completion of the U.S.-Mexico border fence  Rescind Obama’s executive orders on immigration  Rubio supports path to legalization  Democrats: Support and expand Obama Administration’s policies  Support a path to citizenship  Enforce Obama’s DACA orders. ON THE ISSUES: IMMIGRATION 25