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Les Houches I also want to talk about EROI :

Les Houches I also want to talk about EROI : Electricity Renewables O 2 C Intermittency

Les Houches The use of intermittent sources for electricity production in Germany, Sweden, Europe F. Wagner, Max-Planck-Institute for Plasmaphysics Garching/Greifswald 4 Germany burns coal Europe uses more gas RES are large in Germany Sweden is nearly CO2-free Nuclear is important in EU Topics to be covered: Germany: integration of RES in large scales Sweden: replacement of nuclear power by wind EU: benefits of cooperation Electricity production (2012/13) in the 3 regions GermanySwedenEU coal EU TWh 630 TWh 135 TWh

Les Houches The “Energiewende” in Germany Energies 100% case 5

Les Houches The “Energiewende” in Germany Method: Analyse the time series (2012) of load, wind, PV, scaled to 100% Assumptions: Consumption (load) stays at 500 TWh Hydro cannot be increased No nuclear power No import-export No bio-gas PV: 20% (optimal mix) Wind: 1/3 offshore Energies 100% case 6

Les Houches How much power has to be installed? Enough to serve Europe in good days The remaining need for back-up power? 88%; 2 parallel systems P back-up = 73 GW (max. load: 83 GW) W back-up = 26% The extent of surplus energy? Formally enough to serve Poland Dimension of storage? For the 100% case: 660 x present capacity The dynamics of the back-up system? From 0 up to the load; strong gradients The conditions for DSM (demand-side management)? Cheap electricity prices during the day! The amount of CO2 reduction? Not to the level of France, Sweden... Conditions of a 100% supply by RES? Use of biogas (e.g. 40 TWh) and savings (down to 30%) What could be a reasonable share by intermittent RES? 40% (in energy) What are the costs of the transition? Very high: ~ 300 Mrd€ for 20% W+PV* What are the economic implications? substantial * Finadvice Major Results 7 P won =176GW ; P woff =33GW; P PV =97GW

Les Houches How much power has to be installed? 100% case W+PV Back-up 8 load Fossil power increases

Les Houches How much power has to be installed? Energy TWh 9 load

Les Houches The extent of surplus energy? The electricity export strongly increases. Numerically, the export agrees with the PV energy generated 10

Les Houches Need of back-up depending on storage capacity 11 Dimension of storage? Seasonal storage = 660 x present pumped water storage

Les Houches The amount of CO2 reduction? 12 Countries with hydro + nuclear are where Germany will never be with REs and gas as back-up with present German fossil fuel mix with gas alone Germany:

Les Houches The alternative use of gas 13 with present German fossil fuel mix with gas alone Germany: Countries with hydro + nuclear are where Germany will never be with REs and gas as back-up

Les Houches Conditions of a 100% supply by RES factor of load reduction Main knobs: savings/efficiency + use of biomass Minor knobs: decrease of population, import (dispatchable power), geo-th-power 14 level of consumption/present consumption

Les Houches Conditions of a 100% supply by RES factor of load reduction Main knobs: savings/efficiency + use of biomass Minor knobs: decrease of population, import (dispatchable power), geo-th-power 15 level of consumption/present consumption Surplus/load = 50%

Les Houches What could be a reasonable share by intermittent RES? 40% possible limit

Les Houches What are the costs of the transition? Household prices increase nearly linearly Feed-in-tariff 2015: 24 Mrd € Spot market price (annual average): - no business any longer to produce electricity by gas - CHP-limit ~ 5€cent/kWh Overproduction: Germany finances electricity use of its neighbours 17 CHP

Les Houches What are the costs of the transition? Source: F. Wagner Finadvice 18 CHP W+PV power (W/capita)

Les Houches What are the economic implications? Electricity price ~ 1/flh The operation of gas power station loses economic basis - not only because of electricity price This fate will be shared by other thermal power stations – one after the other … also by a future storage system 19 Def.: full-load-hours (flh) = energy produced (TWh)/production capacity (GW)

Les Houches What are the economic implications? “new industry” Market share on PV module production 2008: 20% 2015: 2% 20 EON RWE price of shares (€)

Les Houches Lessons from German “Energiewende” Large-scale Wind and PV electricity possible if the necessary space is allocated Large power to be installed – comparable to the load of Europe → high costs Back-up system required in all scenarios: little saving in thermal power Storage technology not available; its future operation not economic CO 2 reduction by RES: not to the level already achieved by others in EU High costs to build-up the system Market-rules out of force: price follows weather, not demand (loss of landscape, loss of bio-diversity) 21

Les Houches TWh Källa: Energimyndigheten Electricity production Can Sweden replace nuclear by wind power? 22

Les Houches Hydropower follows the load 23 present situation Data for analysis provided by E. Rachlew

Les Houches Operation of hydro-power plants Electricity production is only one requirement for hydro-system water supply flood prevention + avoidance of low water levels fishing recreation and environment Hydro-system with several power stations along the river → coherent action to avoid spills 24 Limits in P hy and gradP hy which vary during season Procedure: obey limits of each day

Les Houches The case without nuclear power 25

Les Houches The alternatives 26 Hydro electricity constant: 62 TWh

Les Houches The consequences A gas back-up system is necessary → the specific CO2 emission increases by 50% PV is rather ineffective to replace back-up Storage is not meaningful because surplus power is too little Excessive surplus production leads to the replacement of hydro by wind power 27

Les Houches Benefit from an EU-wide RES field 28 Germany, wind+PV Denmark, wind Belgium, wind France, wind+PV UK, wind Ireland, wind Spain, wind+PV Czech Rep., wind+PV Sweden, wind+PV Construction of an EU-wide RES field

Les Houches Annual duration curves for German RES field (dashed) and EU-wide RES field Benefit from an EU-wide RES field 29 Germany, wind+PV Denmark, wind Belgium, wind France, wind+PV UK, wind Ireland, wind Spain, wind+PV Czech Rep., wind+PV Sweden, wind+PV Construction of an EU-wide RES field Only wind has averaging effect Production: 1TWh for each case

Les Houches the back-up energy is reduced by 24%, the maximal back-up power by 9%, the maximal surplus power by 15%, the maximal grid power by 7%, the typical grid fluctuation level by 35% the maximal storage capacity by 28% Germany´s benefit of an EU-wide RES field 30

Les Houches Structure of wind field over Europe 31 … expressed in terms of regression coefficient

Les Houches Germany France UK Spain Belgium Czech Rep. Denmark Ireland 100% Useful surplus (from Germany´s point of view) surplus normalised for each case „useful“ surplus (surplus produced when Germany is in need) 32 In case of surplus – also the neighbours produce it

Les Houches Interconnector capacity 33

Les Houches demandhydro-electr.P(Won)P(Woff)P(PV) back-up surplus TWh GW TWh sum EU power installations 34 explained/index.php/Electricity_and_heat_statistics consumption-by-mode/assessment-5 For comparison: EU, 2013 Derived heat: 680 TWh Road transport: 3305 TWh

Les Houches EU-wide consequences Large RES power necessary for all countries National RES use demand typically north-south grids Cross-border exchange requires east-west grids Exchange over large distances beneficial Large interconnector capacities needed Not all countries benefit equally from an EU-wide RES field Economic consequences: Utilities lose business model IEA: EU loses 1/3 of global market share of energy intensive exports over next 2 decades* * Finadvice 35

Les Houches Considerations prior to an „Energiewende“ 36 The generation power has to increase by up to a factor of 4 High costs, rising electricity prices High use of space Storage crucial but not available and not economic in operation Hydro+nuclear much better in CO2-reduction System without market incentives Strong impact on economy of present utilities Development of new industries not guaranteed Joint transition within EU highly doubtful