International Council of Academies of Engineering and Technological Sciences (CAETS ) Deployment of Low Emissions Technologies for Electric Power Generation in Response to Climate Change WORKING GROUP REPORT - DRAFT 30 June 2010

 About 69% CO2 emissions are energy related  Energy-related CO2 emissions: grow by 57% by 2030 BAU  Need >50% reduction in global CO2 emissions by 2050 (IPCC)  Global power generation plants: 26% global CO2 emissions  Report Focus: Deployment of low-emission technologies for supplying electrical energy

 Dr Vaughan Beck FTSE – ATSE (Australia)  Dr John Burgess FTSE – ATSE (Australia)  Professor Robert L. Evans FCAE - CAE (Canada)  Prof Dr Frank Behrendt - acatech (Germany)  Professor Hanasoge S. Mukunda - INAE (India)  Dr Kozo Iizuka - EAJ (Japan)  Professor Myungsook Oh - NAEK (Korea)  Mr Willem du Preez - SAAE (South Africa)  Professor John Loughhead FREng - RAE (UK)

 ATSE with support from other Academies put proposal to CAETS Council Meeting in Calgary, 2009  Council endorsed the Proposal  ATSE (with financial support of the Australian government) convened a WG meeting in Tokyo, 2–3 March 2010  Meeting hosted by the EAJ.

1. Country reports presented & discussed 2. WG identified 7 Key Issues for deployment 3. Key Issues allocated to WG Academies to write sections of the report 4. Moved from:  Evaluation of Strategies to Deploy Low Emission Technologies, to  Key Issues for the Deployment of Low Low Emission Technologies.

 Introduction  Section 1: Challenges of switching to low-carbon technologies  Section 2: The electricity economy  Section 3: The key technologies and their prospects  Section 4: The role of renewables  Section 5: New technology for electricity demand management  Section 6: The special needs of developing economies  Section 7: Role of government in low-carbon technology development  Conclusions  Country reports  Biographies

 Global economy will grow four-fold by 2050  Massive technological and financial challenges to reduce CO2 levels  Implementing low-carbon technologies will be costly, with high uncertainty and technical risk  How to accelerate deployment of technologies?  Need systematic evaluation of technologies  Users will pay a substantially higher price

 Need for expert comment and evaluation of technical and financial viability -To inform public debate and government policy  Financial modelling is a useful tool for evaluating critical energy generation and distribution infrastructure.  Limited extant evidence to enable a systematic evaluation of technologies for electric power generation in response to climate change, other than levelised cost of electricity and real option values

 Energy Sources; Energy Carriers; End Use  Movement to a new ‘Electricity Economy’  Electricity: the future energy carrier of choice for transportation  The preferred means of road transport will likely be the plug-in hybrid vehicle  Electrical generation capacity will need to expand still further to meet this new market.  Load Levelling from transport

 Future low-carbon electricity generation: More efficient combustion technologies CCS Nuclear power Renewables  Improved efficiency in the end-use of energy:  Industrial  Domestic energy users, and  Transport

 Renewable energy - make an increasing contribution to global electricity supply  However, the potential of renewable energy is inevitably limited by its variability and large land requirements  Density of energy demand: cities  Dependence on topography and natural endowments means that the contribution of renewables to national energy requirements will vary from country to country.

 Nature of renewable energy generation introduces new demands on the design of the whole energy supply system.  ICT monitoring and control via smart grids, with demand management an essential component.  Standards for physical interfaces, communication protocols and common data formats.  Information flows: suite of new social issues and concerns privacy and individual freedom  Additional infrastructure & costs.

 Developing economies expected show the fastest growth rates in energy requirements  Each country will develop unique portfolio of electricity-generating technologies  Need to rely for some time on fossil fuels  Biofuels already important need more efficient production  Smaller, distributed generation a feature of electrical energy supply  Small reactors without on-site refuelling can be considered

 Short timeframes, high risks and large costs involved in deployment  Governments need to take a leading role: - Basic R&D required before renewable energy can supply a significant fraction of future energy needs. - Taking innovative new technologies through to demonstration and deployment stages  Global energy and climate issues calls for more international cooperation, supported by governments, for rapid deployment of low-carbon technology demonstration projects.

CAETS has a major role for international collaboration in helping provide the world with secure, low-emission electricity at the lowest possible cost. Examples:  Convey to governments and the public the serious dimension of the technical challenges ahead & the engineering challenge is huge!  Advise governments that they must provide strong leadership & support for technology development and deployment

 Develop better ways for assessing generating technologies  Encourage the accelerated development & deployment of key technologies  Disseminate authoritative information about the benefits as well as the costs of competing electricity generating technologies; and  Encourage governments to provide support to ensure technological success

All Recommendations focus on future CAETS actions via collaboration with member academies & others  Communicating the huge challenge posed by the future need for secure low-carbon electricity  Encouraging government investment in RD&D  Encourage development of models for financial evaluation of technologies  Publicly disseminating technically sound information on energy technology issues  Identifying priorities for further technology development

1. Status of the Draft Report:  Convert to formal CAETS Report after comments 2. Future Action: -Expand the WG? &/ or - Extend the report? – None?