Climate Change and Agriculture Eugene S. Takle Professor of Agricultural Meteorology, Department of Agronomy Professor of Atmospheric Science, Department.

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Presentation transcript:

Climate Change and Agriculture Eugene S. Takle Professor of Agricultural Meteorology, Department of Agronomy Professor of Atmospheric Science, Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences Director, Climate Science Initiative Iowa State University Agricultural Summit and Roundtable, Ames, IA 31 July 2008

Natural and anthropogenic contributions to global temperature change (Meehl et al., 2004). Observed values from Jones and Moberg Grey bands indicate 68% and 95% range derived from multiple simulations. Natural cycles

Natural and anthropogenic contributions to global temperature change (Meehl et al., 2004). Observed values from Jones and Moberg Grey bands indicate 68% and 95% range derived from multiple simulations. Not Natural

Source: Jerry Meehl, National Center for Atmospheric Research

IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers Reduced Consumption Energy intensive Energy conserving Adaptation Necessary Mitigation Possible

Suitability Index for Rainfed Agriculture IPCC 2007

Suitability Index for Rainfed Agriculture IPCC 2007

Projected changes in precipitation between and for an energy- conserving scenario of greenhouse gas emissions IPCC 2007

FactorPercent Cold Winter 0.9 Decline in Price 6.6 Drought 35.5 Excess Moist/Precip/Rain 38.4 Flood 2.6 Freeze 0.1 Hail 7.2 Heat 1.2 Hot Wind 0.0 Mycotoxin (Aflatoxin) 1.0 Plant Disease 0.3 Winds/Excess Wind 5.0 Other 1.1 Total Insured Crop Loss for Corn in Iowa* *Milliman, Inc., based on data from the Risk Management Agency Website (

FactorPercent Cold Winter 0.9 Decline in Price 6.6 Drought 35.5 Excess Moist/Precip/Rain 38.4 Flood 2.6 Freeze 0.1 Hail 7.2 Heat 1.2 Hot Wind 0.0 Mycotoxin (Aflatoxin) 1.0 Plant Disease 0.3 Winds/Excess Wind 5.0 Other 1.1 Total Insured Crop Loss for Corn in Iowa* *Milliman, Inc., based on data from the Risk Management Agency Website (

Insured Crop Loss for Soybeans in Iowa* FactorPercent Cold Winter 0.6 Decline in Price 4.8 Drought 56.8 Excess Moist/Precip/Rain 20.2 Flood 1.4 Freeze 0.1 Hail 13.0 Heat 0.9 Hot Wind 0.0 Mycotoxin (Aflatoxin) 0.0 Plant Disease 1.1 Winds/Excess Wind 0.2 Other 1.1 Total *Milliman, Inc., based on data from the Risk Management Agency Website (

Insured Crop Loss for Soybeans in Iowa* FactorPercent Cold Winter 0.6 Decline in Price 4.8 Drought 56.8 Excess Moist/Precip/Rain 20.2 Flood 1.4 Freeze 0.1 Hail 13.0 Heat 0.9 Hot Wind 0.0 Mycotoxin (Aflatoxin) 0.0 Plant Disease 1.1 Winds/Excess Wind 0.2 Other 1.1 Total *Milliman, Inc., based on data from the Risk Management Agency Website (

Projected Changes* for the Climate of the Midwest Temperature *Estimated from IPCC reports

Projected Changes* for the Climate of the Midwest Precipitation *Estimated from IPCC reports

Projected Changes* for the Climate of the Midwest Other *Estimated from IPCC and CCSP reports

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