FORECASTING FOR GLINA ARTS Asha Gangineni Samyukta Varre Gowtham Laburam Rahul Sawant.

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Presentation transcript:

FORECASTING FOR GLINA ARTS Asha Gangineni Samyukta Varre Gowtham Laburam Rahul Sawant

Problem statement ■Prediction of Total enrollment of students for Fall ■Prediction of Enrollment of students by media for Fall-2016 ■Prediction of enrollment of Students by Courses for Fall-2016

Assumptions ■We incremented the Data by one year, EG: Fall 2014 became Fall 2015 ■Data is available till Spring 2015, so we incremented the data by one year such that the prediction can be made for fall 2016 ■No Specified Season was changed to Fall 2014 ■Registration count <5 is not considered ■2D and No media Specified were not considered as data was not available for 5 seasons

Approach and Technology Considered Single Exponential Smoothing: ■ Suitable when there is no trend or seasonal pattern ■Forecast for a small period of time.

Selecting the Target Element Tr Trend Line For Months Trend Line For Quarters ■R^2 determines the strength of relationship( values are between 0 and 1) ■Closer to 1 then there is a good relationship between the factors that we are comparing.

Statistical Formulae Used Mean Absolute Error: ■The MAE measures the average magnitude of the errors in a set of forecast. Mean Absolute Percentage Error: ■Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE) is the most common measure of forecast error. ■The MAPE (Mean Absolute Percent Error) measures the size of the error in percentage terms Mean Square Error: ■The Mean Squared Error (MSE) is a measure of how close a fitted line is to data points

Statistical Formulae Used ■Forecasting Exponential Smoothing F t+1 = α A t +(1- α) F t where α = Smoothing Factor A t = Last Actual value F t = Last Forecast Value

Exponential Smoothing by season- Adults

Forecast for clay for Fall-2016 CLAYThrowing on the wheel

Clay Clay Extended Access Clay Open Studio

Forecast for Fiber for Fall-2016 Fiber Craft Uncorked - Dyed Silk Scarf

Forecast for Glass for Fall-2016 GlassCraft Uncorked Fused Coster Glass

Forecast for Graphics for Fall-2016 Emerson Family Saturday Graphics

Forecast for Metals for Fall-2016 MetalsJewelry Foundation

Forecast for Metals for Fall-2016 Craft Uncorked Wired

Forecast for Wood Turning for Fall-2016 Wood Turning

Camps

Forecasting for Camps for Fall-2016

Forecasting for Camps- Fall 2016 CampsMetal Smith for kids

Forecast for Child and Parent for Fall- 2016

Forecast for Child Camp for Fall-2016 Learning the Potter’s wheel Child camp

Forecast for Clay for Fall-2016 Clay Throwing on the wheel

Forecast for Wood Turning for Fall-2016 Wood turningBeginning wood turning

Conclusion - Registration by Media

Conclusion - Registration by Course

Recommendations ■No sufficient data, Missing links in data ■Better forecasting could be done id data was available for more than 4 years ■Maintain two different columns for Registration and enrollment dates for more accurate prediction ■Provide recent data

Questions ?