FORECASTING FOR GLINA ARTS Asha Gangineni Samyukta Varre Gowtham Laburam Rahul Sawant
Problem statement ■Prediction of Total enrollment of students for Fall ■Prediction of Enrollment of students by media for Fall-2016 ■Prediction of enrollment of Students by Courses for Fall-2016
Assumptions ■We incremented the Data by one year, EG: Fall 2014 became Fall 2015 ■Data is available till Spring 2015, so we incremented the data by one year such that the prediction can be made for fall 2016 ■No Specified Season was changed to Fall 2014 ■Registration count <5 is not considered ■2D and No media Specified were not considered as data was not available for 5 seasons
Approach and Technology Considered Single Exponential Smoothing: ■ Suitable when there is no trend or seasonal pattern ■Forecast for a small period of time.
Selecting the Target Element Tr Trend Line For Months Trend Line For Quarters ■R^2 determines the strength of relationship( values are between 0 and 1) ■Closer to 1 then there is a good relationship between the factors that we are comparing.
Statistical Formulae Used Mean Absolute Error: ■The MAE measures the average magnitude of the errors in a set of forecast. Mean Absolute Percentage Error: ■Mean Absolute Percent Error (MAPE) is the most common measure of forecast error. ■The MAPE (Mean Absolute Percent Error) measures the size of the error in percentage terms Mean Square Error: ■The Mean Squared Error (MSE) is a measure of how close a fitted line is to data points
Statistical Formulae Used ■Forecasting Exponential Smoothing F t+1 = α A t +(1- α) F t where α = Smoothing Factor A t = Last Actual value F t = Last Forecast Value
Exponential Smoothing by season- Adults
Forecast for clay for Fall-2016 CLAYThrowing on the wheel
Clay Clay Extended Access Clay Open Studio
Forecast for Fiber for Fall-2016 Fiber Craft Uncorked - Dyed Silk Scarf
Forecast for Glass for Fall-2016 GlassCraft Uncorked Fused Coster Glass
Forecast for Graphics for Fall-2016 Emerson Family Saturday Graphics
Forecast for Metals for Fall-2016 MetalsJewelry Foundation
Forecast for Metals for Fall-2016 Craft Uncorked Wired
Forecast for Wood Turning for Fall-2016 Wood Turning
Camps
Forecasting for Camps for Fall-2016
Forecasting for Camps- Fall 2016 CampsMetal Smith for kids
Forecast for Child and Parent for Fall- 2016
Forecast for Child Camp for Fall-2016 Learning the Potter’s wheel Child camp
Forecast for Clay for Fall-2016 Clay Throwing on the wheel
Forecast for Wood Turning for Fall-2016 Wood turningBeginning wood turning
Conclusion - Registration by Media
Conclusion - Registration by Course
Recommendations ■No sufficient data, Missing links in data ■Better forecasting could be done id data was available for more than 4 years ■Maintain two different columns for Registration and enrollment dates for more accurate prediction ■Provide recent data
Questions ?