A.D A.D A.D B.C B.C B.C B.C B.C B.C B.C. 1+ million years Old Stone Age New Stone Age Bronze Age Iron Age Middle Ages Modern Age Black Death—The Plague A.D A.D A.D Future Billions Source: Population Reference Bureau; and United Nations, World Population Projections to 2100 World Population Growth Through History

Demographic Transition Model

The Demographic Transition in Great Britain Studied the change in birth rates, death rates, and natural growth rates over the course of British industrialization. Found a transition occurred when death rates decline and then birth rates decline, resulting in a low or sustained growth rate.

The Classic Demographic Transition Stage 1Stage 2Stage 3Stage 4 Time Natural increase Birth rate Death rate Note: Natural increase is produced from the excess of births over deaths.

The Demographic Transition Fig. 2-13: The demographic transition consists of four stages, which move from high birth and death rates, to declines first in death rates then in birth rates, and finally to a stage of low birth and death rates. Population growth is most rapid in the second stage.

Demographic Transition in England Fig. 2-14: England was one of the first countries to experience rapid population growth in the mid-eighteenth century, when it entered stage 2 of the demographic transition.

The Demographic Transition © H.J. de Blij, P.O. Muller, and John Wiley & Sons, Inc.

The Demographic Transition Stage 1: Low Growth Stage 2: High Growth Stage 3: Moderate Growth Stage 4: Low Growth or Stationary Stage 5: Negative Growth

Rapid Growth in Cape Verde Fig. 2-17: Cape Verde, which entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in about 1950, is experiencing rapid population growth. Its population history reflects the impacts of famines and out-migration.

Moderate Growth in Chile Fig. 2-18: Chile entered stage 2 of the demographic transition in the 1930s, and it entered stage 3 in the 1960s.

Low Growth in Denmark Fig. 2-19: Denmark has been in stage 4 of the demographic transition since the 1970s, with little population growth since then. Its population pyramid shows increasing numbers of elderly and few children.

Is the Demographic Transition Model Still Useful? How well does the classic model work? Is it a useful framework for developing countries? Do developing countries need to share the experiences of Europe and the United States? Is the socioeconomic change experienced by industrialized countries a prerequisite or a consequence of demographic transition?

Demographic Transition in Sweden and Mexico Births/Deaths per 1,

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