Tuberculosis demand forecast Brussels, 10 April 2013 Dr Mario Raviglione Director, Stop TB Department World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland Photo: Riccardo Venturi

Funding required US$ billions TB/HIV excl. ART Rapid diagnostics, related laboratory strengthening MDR-TB treatment Largest investment needed for DOTS but, largest increase needed for: rapid diagnostics/labs and MDR-TB DOTS Available funds (2011)

Funding needs + gaps, by income group 37 low-income (LICs) 54 lower-middle income (LMICs)27 upper-middle income (UMICs) Gap : $1.3 b Big relative gap (~60%) in LICs LMICs assumed to increase domestic funding. IF NOT much bigger gap Total funding gap US$ 4.3 billion Gap : $1.4 b US$ billions Gap : $1.6 b

Biggest gaps in Africa: 59% of total gap, Africa Asia Rest of the World Funding gaps, US$ billions by region Africa AsiaRest of World 59% 22 % 19% Gap in Asia could be bigger if domestic funding (in India, Indonesia, Philippines etc.) does not grow at projected level Smaller gaps in Rest of World but critical to fill for MDR response and quality TB care, esp. in Europe

Impact: numbers treated Millions treated for TBNumber treated for MDR-TB 17 million people treated for TB, ,000 treated for MDR-TB,

Impact: lives saved Status quo implies: 1.2 million lives lost Failure in MDR-response Failure to adopt rapid diagnostic tests Millions Lives saved (TB)Lives saved (MDR-TB) 0.2 million Status Quo Millions Status Quo

Key messages 1)In the 118 countries eligible to apply for Global Fund financing, US$14.5 billion is required for TB care and control 2014‒2016 2)There is potential to mobilize US$9.7 billion (67%) from domestic sources and US$0.6 billion from non-GF donor sources 3)Therefore, the anticipated demand for Global Fund financing is at least US$4.3 billion 2014–2016, or US$1.4 billion/year 4)MYTH TO DISPEL: «International funding not really needed for TB». In reality, gaps remain huge especially in low-income countries and Africa.