“Egypt’s Fateful Day” Esam Al-Amin

Egypt’s Fateful Day Egypt is Imploding The unity of purpose on display during the Revolution has been replaced by distrust and hostility. Opposition: Has Splintered The groups that carried out the revolution has parted ways after Mubarak’s departure on ideological grounds.

Egypt’s Fateful Day Opposition: Has Splintered Different Groups: - Islamist groups led by Muslim Brotherhood (MB) and its political arm Freedom and Justice Party (FJP). - Secular, liberal groups, led by Al-Wafd Party and Al-Dustoor (Constitution) Party, headed by Dr. Muhammad El Baradei. - Youth groups, April 6 and others.

Egypt’s Fateful Day Opposition: Has Splintered Different Groups: - Islamist groups led by Muslim Brotherhood (MB) dominated the political process (won parliamentary, presidential elections and the controlled Constitutional Constituent Assembly that wrote new constitution). - Secular, liberal groups, lost elections and lost relevance. - Youth groups, have been marginalized by the political wrangling.

Egypt’s Fateful Day Muslim Brotherhood: Morsi Elected There was some hope that an era of cooperation might follow Morsi’s election, especially after he sidelined the military. Youth Groups Turned Against Morsi and MB But, elements with the youth movement quickly turned against him and claimed he was incompetent.

Egypt’s Fateful Day Morsi Presidency There is some evidence that Morsi did try to reach out to the opposition. He called as many as ten meetings with the National Salvation Front (NSF), but did not get very far. He asked for names of people to appoint to senior government positions, but only got a response from the Islamist groups.

Egypt’s Fateful Day Fulool: Mubarak Forces Regroup Meanwhile, as opposition to Morsi grew, vestiges of the Mubarak era (particularly within the security services) began to regroup and join the anti-MB opposition. Fulool: Power Underestimated by Revolutionary, then Opposition groups.

Egypt’s Fateful Day Fulool and Opposition: Fulool reinvented itself as part of the opposition, which itself turned more anti-MB and than anti-Fulool.

Egypt’s Fateful Day Evidence of Fulool Continued Strength: Control of Courts Supreme Constitutional Court, dates to the Mubarak era, and has challenged many of the recent democratic changes in the country. Examples: - ruled parliamentary elections unconstitutional, and then dissolve the body. - ruled against new election laws, preventing new parliamentary elections - ruled against appointment of the General Prosecutor, and called for re- instating corrupt official from Mubarak regime. - has protected a number of officials from the Mubarak government known to be involved in attacks on protestors during the uprising.

Egypt’s Fateful Day Tamarrud versus Tajarrud Tamarrud Youth groups have since reemerged during the ensuing crisis as the Tamarrad or Rebellion and mounted a seriosu challenge to Morsi’s legitimacy. They announced in April movement to gain 15 million signatures calling for early presidential elections on June 30 (Morsi’s term ended in 2016) June 30: Opposition Groups Rally Around Call for New Elections

Egypt’s Fateful Day Tamarrud versus Tajarrud Tajarrud Islamists groups respond by organizing their own new group, the Tajarrud or Impartiality to defend defend Morsi and challenge as unconstitutional calls to depose him. The result has been a deep polarizing of Egyptian society.

Egypt’s Fateful Day Three (3) Possible Outcomes: June MB view: Not many people will come out into the street, validating their view that the opposition is marginal. 2. Opposition: Millions will go into the streets, and will push for Morsi’s removal from office. 3. Fulool: will promote instability, evemn violence to lead the way to a military coup.

Egypt’s Fateful Day Outside Forces: A number of regional powers have also been keeping a close on Egypt, and on the Arab Spring, including Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates and Israel. US: Plays Both Sides The US has been trying to play both sides. They have promised to keep the military aid flowing, but have been slow to push IMF loan. They would late condemn the military “coup,” without cutting off aid.

Egypt’s Fateful Day Recommendations: No group can afford to ignore or marginalize the other. The MB-dominated government must be more inclusive and transparent, but the Opposition must respect the democratic rules of the political process.