Impact Evaluation considerations for Non- Traditional ODA Immaculate Dadiso Motsi

Non-Traditional ODA Official Development Assistance Traditional Sources Non –Traditional Sources

Case : China ’ s mining investment in the DRC

China in Africa

The Deal Barter - Infrastructure for Minerals Quid Pro Quo DRC - $6bn worth of roads, railways, hospitals, universities CHINA - 10million tonnes of copper and 400,000 tonnes of cobalt

Key Assumption

Improved Infrastructure GOAL ACTIVITIES OUTCOME OUTPUTS INPUTS Improving Rate & Quality of Economic Growth Building new infrastructure Chinese Money & Labor New roads, universities etc; Less Minerals

Thesis

1.Non-Traditional ODA needs to be subjected to rigorous M &E 2.Traditional M & E techniques are not effectively applicable to non- traditional ODA (evaluation gap) 3. Traditional M & E can and should be adapted to be effectively applicable to non-traditional ODA

(1) Non-Traditional ODA needs to be Monitored & Evaluated

Insufficiency of current Congolese Feasibility Study (not the same as ex ante Evaluation) Social Impact implicit in the goal of improved rate and quality of economic growth Future ‘barter deals’ specifically & Non-Traditional ODA generally

(2) Traditional M&E is not effectively suitable to Non- Traditional ODA

Complexities Time value of money Fluctuating commodity prices Political uncertainty Volume of extractible minerals available Scale (national level) No precedent or Counter-Factual No transparency on certain aspects of the deal Long-Term impact horizon

Improved Rate & Quality of Economic Growth GOAL ACTIVITIES OUTCOME OUTPUTS INPUTS Improving Rate & Quality of Economic Growth Building new infrastructure; Extracting more minerals Chinese Money & Labor; Congolese Minerals New roads, universities etc; Less Minerals BENEFITS COST

Implicit assumption = intervention will lead to development objectives Non-Traditional ODA = fundamentally a business transaction Assumptive mismatch = Traditional M & E under- emphasizes costs in the pursuit of establishing benefits

(3) Traditional M&E can and should be adapted to Non-Traditional ODA

Adaptation Incorporation of Cost – Benefit Analysis Methodology Active pursuit of negative externalities Make open-ended policy recommendations (best practice given degree of complexity)

-The End-