Michael Apps Executive Director CHANGE = GROWTH MEETING THE CHALLENGE

BIC and QBIC Programs Guest speakers Mon/Tues/Wed morning Tuesday afternoon options program Partners program Social events Expo and Happy Hours Big Arvo Out and Bus Auction Bussies Bar Conference song Next Year’s Conference - Singapore The Conference: What you need to know.

Peak Car and the Twenty Minute City 1. The Reversal of Urban Sprawl 2. The Ageing of Cities (People Who are Older Drive Less) 3. The Growth of a Culture of Urbanism 4. The Rise of Fuel Prices 5. The Growth of Public Transport 6. Hitting the Marchetti Wall

Peak Car and the Twenty Minute City The Marchetti Wall Marchetti's Constant is a term for the average amount of time spent traveling each day, which is approximately one and a half hours. Even since Neolithic times, people have kept the time at which they travel per day the same, even though the distance may increase. People and - The Twenty Minute City

Generational Change Baby Boomers 1949 – 1964 Gen X 1965 – 1990 Gen Y 1991 – 2006 Gen Z? – 2006 – 2021 Baby Boomers are the car culture that killed public transport in preference to cars. The “FJ Holden effect”.

Gen Y and Travel 2011 The highest users of public transport in Victoria in 2011 were in the age bracket.

Gen Y and Travel In the decade to 2012 the percentage of under 25s with a Driver’s Licence in Victoria dropped 10%

Public Transport Use

Henry Review of Taxation 2010 – 20 Billion Passenger Kilometres by bus 2050 – 50 Billion Passenger Kilometres by bus

Regional and Remote Australia -Regional centres are growing -Central hubs, service the town and link surrounding towns and villages -Government de-centralisation policies -Freight task set to triple by 2050

An Ageing Population: Something Else to Consider -As of per cent of our population was over the age of 65, by 2060 this number is expected to grow to a quarter of our population. -This change can be expected to change the way a quarter of Australia’s population travel -What are the opportunities?

The Politics

Challenges and Change for Industry Contracts and tenders Industry operators and suppliers Industrial relations and APTIA Industry Representation Niche Markets -Mining -Corrective services -Disability services -Para transit -On demand travel -Adventure tours

A Growth Industry: The Four Drivers -Passenger transport forecasts – Population Growth/Fuel Prices/Congestion etc -Generational change – Gen Y and ageing population/Peak Car - Regional Hubs and Freight Growth -Political reality – Transport Costs Business – managing the future task Industry representation – managing the challenge