ELECTIONS AND CAMPAIGNS Chapter 10

The Constitutional Requirements for Elections  Presidential Elections  The Electoral College-- The presidential electors, selected every four years to represent the votes of their respective states, who meet to cast the electoral votes for president and vice president.  Problems with the Electoral College  Never worked as Framers envisioned  Electoral College Reform  Eliminating it would decrease the role of states  Small states see merit in the system  popular vote: Tally of total votes from individual citizens, as opposed to the electoral vote. 2

How the Electoral College Works 3

The Constitutional Requirements for Elections  Presidential Elections  The 2000 Presidential Election  Albert Gore Jr. and George W. Bush  Gore received more votes  Florida too close to call on election night  Demand for a recount  Raised distrust of system (short-term) Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved. 4

The Constitutional Requirements for Elections  Congressional Elections  Senate Elections  Seventeenth Amendment  One-third up for election at a time  House Elections and Redistricting  Entire House up for election every two years  Always been elected by the people  Representatives based on population  redistricting: Process whereby state legislatures redraw the boundaries of congressional districts in the state to make them equal in population size.  gerrymandering: Redistricting that blatantly benefits one political party over the other or concentrates (or dilutes) the voting impact of racial and ethnic groups. 5

The Constitutional Requirements for Elections  Other Elections  Only election in Constitution is for the House  Many types of elections today  Public sees elections as way to make political choice Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved. 6

The Presidential Campaign  Evolution of the Modern Campaign  George Washington didn’t want to be seen as a monarch  Allowed political parties to work on his behalf  Early 20 th century saw presidential candidates campaigning too  Concern over the permanent campaign  permanent campaign: Charge that presidents and members of Congress focus more on winning the next election than on governing. Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved. 7

The Presidential Campaign  The Decision to Run and the Invisible Primary  The Caucuses and Primaries  70% of states use primaries  30% of states use caucuses  Take place January to June  invisible primary: Period just before the primaries begin during which candidates attempt to capture party support and media coverage. Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved. 8

The Presidential Campaign  The National Convention  Prior to 1960s unclear who would be nominee  Today chance for activists/party leaders to gather  The Presidential Debates  Managed by non-partisan, nonprofit Commission on Presidential Debates  First debate between Kennedy and Nixon  Debates have more risk than reward Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved. 9

Issues in Presidential Campaigns  Fundraising and Money  Federal Election Campaign Act (1971)  Candidates look for loopholes  Bundling  PACs/Super PACs  Concerns about influence of money on election process  Internet fundraising  Super PACs: Independent groups that can raise unlimited amounts of money from individuals, labor unions, and corporations and can spend it to support or oppose political candidates but cannot coordinate directly with candidates or political parties. 10

Total Spending by Presidential Candidates,

Issues in Presidential Campaigns  Swing States--States that are not clearly pro-Republican or pro- Democrat and therefore are of vital interest to presidential candidates, as they can determine election outcomes.  Ohio example of battleground state  90% of campaign visits to battleground states  Microtargeting--Gathering detailed information on cross sections of the electorate to track potential supporters and tailor political messages for them; also called narrowcasting.  Replacing traditional polling techniques  Many versions of the same message  battleground state: State in which the outcome of the presidential election is uncertain and in which both candidates invest much time and money, especially if its votes are vital for a victory in the Electoral College.  swing voters: Voters who are neither reliably Republican nor reliably Democratic and who are pursued by each party during an election, as they can determine which candidate wins. 12

Issues in Presidential Campaigns  Campaign Issues  Valence issues: vague claim to a goal; Noncontroversial or widely supported campaign issues that are unlikely to differ among candidates.  Position issues: voters understand plan; Political issues that offer specific policy choices and often differentiate candidates’ views and plans of action.  Wedge issues--Divisive issue focused on a particular group of the electorate that candidates use to gain more support by taking votes away from their opponents.   Negativity--Campaign strategy of telling voters why they should not vote for the opponent and of highlighting information that raises doubts about the opponent.  President Johnson’s “Daisy spot” 13

Issues in Presidential Campaigns  Polls and Prediction Models  Best prediction models use  Economy  Presidential popularity  Incumbent party’s time in office  Retrospective voting-- Theory that voting is driven by a citizen’s assessment of an officeholder’s performance since the last election. Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved. 14

Share of Positive, Contrast, and Negative Ads in President Campaigns

Congressional Campaigns  The Decision to Run and the Primaries  Midterm elections-- Congressional elections held between the presidential elections.  The Fall Campaign  After primaries, candidates try to attract moderate voters  Geographic size of district affects strategy Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved. 16

Issues in Congressional Campaigns  Fundraising and Money  In 2010 elections, candidates needed more than one million dollars to win or keep a seat  Personal wealth provides an advantage  The Role of Political Parties  Can only engage in general activities  Voter registration drives  Partisan rallies Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved. 17

Issues in Congressional Campaigns  Incumbency Advantage  vanishing marginals: Trend marking the decline of competitive congressional elections.  safe seat: Seat in Congress considered to be reliably held by one party or the other.  A call for term limits  term limits: Rule restricting the number of terms an elected official can serve in a given office.  Relative Lack of Interest  presidential coattails: Effect of a popular president or presidential candidate on congressional elections, boosting votes for members of his party.  strategic politician hypothesis: Effect that the strength of the economy and the popularity of the sitting president have on the decision to run for Congress. 18

Reelection Rates of Incumbents in Congress, 1996–

Loss of Seats in the House of Representatives by the President’s Party in Midterm Elections,

Elections, Campaigns, and Democracy  Need to set aside partisanship to assess American political system  Elections and campaigns ensure government responsiveness  Votes forge accountability Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved. 21