Workforce Trends and Labor Market Information March 2, 2016

Trends in NC’s Economy Economy’s Expanding Changing Participation in the Labor Force Shift in Industry Composition New Demands of the Workforce Worker – Employer Mismatch Impact of Automation on Jobs 2

#1 NC’s Economic Expansion 3 Monthly Change in Employed from Start of Each Recession Unemployment rate down 6 percentage points from Jan (NC) 5.1 points for Southeast 3 points for Onslow County More employed residents 407,666 more Jan (NC) 27,501 more for Southeast 3,100 more for Onslow County Unemployment rate not yet back from pre-recession 6.0%, Jan 2015 vs. 5.1%, Jan 2007 (NC) 6.2% vs. 4.8% for Southeast 5.9% vs. 4.6% for Onslow County

#2 Labor Force Participation NC’s dropped 5.2 pts Nearly 2x US decline NC Peaked in Declining Participation Rates

Causes Found in Demographics Retirees Youth Choosing School over Work High School & College 5

#3 Industry Employment Changes Goods- Producing to Service- Delivering Health Care & Social Assistance Accommodation & Food Services Educational Services Professional & Technical Services Administrative & Waste Services Finance & Insurance Information Transportation & Warehousing Construction Manufacturing

#4 New Demands on Workforce Occupations requiring Post- Secondary ed. growing faster 7 Less than High School High School or Equivalent Some College, no degree Postsecondary non- degree Associate’s Degree Bachelor’s Degree Master’s Degree Doctoral or Professional Degree Projections by Minimum Educational Attainment

Educational Supply vs Demand NC’s workforce will need more education for 2025’s demands ’s Working Age Supply vs 2025’s Occupational Demand

#5 Signs of a Mismatch According to 2016 Employer Needs Survey: 39% of Employers had difficulty filling at least one position 58% of “experienced” positions are very difficult to fill At least 52% of those cited workers’ lack of Work Experience (67%) Education Credentials (61%) Technical Skills (58%) Soft Skills (52%) 9 Unemployment Rate Still Above Pre-Recession Level

Educational and Experience Requirements 10 Jobs advertised online Feb. 28, 2016 Minimum Education Requirements OnslowSoutheast High school diploma/equivalent or less 73.4%58.4% Associates degree; some college no degree 8.3%10.0% Bachelors degree13.7%24.2% Advanced degree4.7%7.4% Minimum Experience Requirements OnslowSoutheast Entry level to < 1 year experience 51.0%42.9% 1 to 2 years experience28.6%37.5% 2 to 5 years experience18.5%17.5% 5 to 10 years experience1.9%2.1% High proportion of low education, low experience jobs Population has higher education attainment Suggest there could be issues with under- employment and with retaining workers in county Education Attainment (U.S. Census, 201 4) OnslowSoutheast High school diploma/equivalent or less 36.9%41.5% Associates degree; some college no degree 43.8%33.2% Bachelors degree13.0%16.5% Advanced degree6.4%8.9%

Commuting Patterns 23, 845 people live and work in Onslow County 14,014 people live outside but work in Onslow County 20,116 people live inside but work outside of Onslow County Onslow County is a net exporter of workers 11 The importance of regionalism in thinking about the workforce

#6 Impact of Automation 1 12 NC Job Categories with >10k employees and >70% likelihood of elimination by automation North Carolina 39 job categories identified 1.28 million jobs $36.9B in total wages Southeast 39 job categories represented 114,950 jobs $3.0B in total wages Onslow County 37 of 39 categories represented 16,730 jobs (37% of all jobs) $402.3M in total wages 1 FutureWork Vulnerability Index

Onslow County Impact 13 Top 5 job categories Occupation Title Estimated Employment Avg Annual Wage Rate Combined Food Preparation and Serving Workers, Including Fast Food2,920$17,580 Retail Salespersons2,710$26,906 Cashiers1,800$18,988 Waiters and Waitresses1,290$18,309 Office Clerks, General1,100$24,198 Total9,820

In Summary Positives The economy is expanding Unemployment is down and job openings are up Many residents with post-secondary education The military installations provide a tremendous talent pipeline Challenges A large portion of current jobs in Onslow County require low education and experience levels Automation will continue to put pressure on low skill, routine jobs...and more There is a need to diversify the opportunities in this area 14

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