Equity and Global Climate Change Developing Countries and the Climate Change Challenge Alistair Maclean, Australian Embassy

The Climate Change Challenge u Article 2 of the UNFCCC provides: –“The ultimate objective of this Convention and any related legal instruments that the Parties may adopt is to achieve, in accordance with the relevant provisions of the Convention, stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropgenic interference with the climate system.”

We don’t know what the stabilisation level should be u But we do know that the level of reductions embodied in the Kyoto Protocol targets are but a small step in that direction u We do know that global emissions will continue to grow, irrespective of the Kyoto targets

Emissions Growth u Developed countries accounted for approximately 46% of emissions in 1995 u By 2010, developing countries will account for around 55% of global emissions

The environmental objective of the UNFCCC cannot be achieved without developing country participation

All countries will feel the impact of global warming irrespective of their historical contribution

Arguments for developing country participation u Environmental arguments u Article 2 of the UNFCCC u growth of developing country emissions u carbon leakage (a major concern) u equity and responsible government agrument u economic welfare argument

Arguments invoked against developing country participation u UNFCCC calls on developed countries to take the lead u developed countries are historically responsible for the build-up of GHG levels u per-capita emissions in developing countries remain lower u developing countries should not have their economic development curtailed

Carbon Leakage u Possible relocation of carbon-intensive industries to non-Annex I countries may lead to leakage of up to 20 per cent (IPCC WG3) u Major political issue for carbon-intensive economy like Australia u Net loss to environment if technology in host country more emissions intensive

Combatting climate change consistent with development u lower emissions technologies can have significant economic benefits and many “no regrets” opportunities exist u There are potentially large economic gains through international emissions trading for developing countries once they take on targets u energy price reform can reduce emissions while generating economic efficiencies

Australia’s Position u Developing country participation is essential for: u environmental reasons u equity reasons u international competitiveness reasons u political reasons

Some Practical Challenges u identifying equitable commitments u overcoming uncertainties associated with forecasting GHG emission levels u identifying incentives for developing countries to participate

The Path Forward u all countries need to be thinking more about these issues u bring them into the mainstream negotiations u grasp opportunities to address genuinely the climate change problem