Decision analysis and risk management: Introduction to course Jouni Tuomisto, THL

Aims of the course To give a good understanding and practical skills to perform, participate, and moderate open assessments using Opasnet. The capability to act as an expert facilitator. The purpose is to learn to effectively use facilitation to improve decision support. The students will learn about the fundamentals of decision analysis, the connections between assessments and societal decision making, and the role of decision making in a pragmatic context of improving outcomes. They will learn to apply the scientific method and falsification in the context of an assessment, and know how to build an open assessment based on the requirements of societal decision making. The focus is on how to convincingly exclude poor decision options rather than trying to find a theoretically optimal solution (e.g. with highest expected utility).

The role of expert facilitator The key role is to help people understand complex decision-related issues and each other. Another key role is to transform this understanding into a machine-readable format for quantitative modelling. Sharing data and understanding is the joy of a facilitator!

Open risk management: overview Mikko V Pohjola and Jouni T Tuomisto.. Environmental Health 2011, 10: 58 doiEnvironmental Health 2011, 10: 58doi Q? A! R:

Societal decision example: the port of Rauma Urban area planning is under way in Rauma. The development of the port of Rauma is a critical thing. How large are the emissions and health impacts of fine particles in Rauma, Finland? Options: –1: Centre and nearby areas –2: From centre to sea (port moved to a new area) –3: Shores and paths

Decision analysis framework Who defines the problem? Whose utilities? Uncertain outcomes Decision: 3 options p t ? k€ ? p(in time), cost (€) E(u) Chances

Rauma port: health impacts of fine particle emissions

Map of the two main options for Rauma port

How Rauma model looks like

Example of concentration fields around the port

Attributable deaths due to city plan options in Rauma

Decisions by an individual vs. in a society In theory, decision analysis is straightforward with a single decision-maker: she just has to assess her subjective probabilities and utilities and maximize expected utility. In practice, there are severe problems: assessing probabilities and utilities is difficult. However, in a society things become even more complicated: –There are several participants in decision-making. –There is disagreement about probabilities and utilities. –The decision models used are different. –The knowledge bases are different. NOTE! In this course, "knowledge" means both scientific (what is?) and ethical (what should be?) knowledge.

What is Opasnet web workspace? Place to collect and produce information for decision support Place for online collaboration Functionalities used and available A wiki for describing and discussing issues A database for storing all kinds of data Machine-readable links to other databases Modelling environment for making assessments using R statistical software Possibility to directly access the data and model results from outside

Open data is a current megatrend sp datavaalit/

Framework for knowledge-based policy

Schedule of the course –Course website: –Lecture videos: risk-management risk-management –Homeworks: management_2013/Homework management_2013/Homework –Rauma case: cles_in_Rauma cles_in_Rauma

–Homeworks Homework 1: Familiarise yourself to Mikko Pohjola's thesis and answer the questions. Due date: 10 Jan Homework 2: Read the introductory pages about Template:Opasnet training and write one question that you think needs clarification. Due date: 11 Jan Template:Opasnet training Homework 3: With your pair, draft an assessment about the topic agreed on during the lecture. Due date: 21 Jan. –For details see _management_2013/Homework _management_2013/Homework

Topic lectures ( ) Introductions to different topic areas where open assessment is being used in practice. Climate change mitigation policies on municipality level. City of Kuopio is a participant. Metal mine risk assessment (ecology + health). Health impact assessment: calculating burden of disease.

Method sessions Lectures, exercises, and homework about specific skills needed in open assessments. Technical skills for maintaining information structures. Skills to organise discussions. Skills to develop quantitative models. Skills to critically evaluate evidence.

Exercises Everyone is given several tasks to train and show skills needed. Exercises are places where students can come and ask for help and guidance, and where guidance can be given to larger groups. The purpose of exercises is to facilitate the task work.

Seminars In the end of the course, all participants present results of the tasks they have performed. The course is also evaluated using the evaluation criteria for environmental health assessments.

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