The Context of Reliability Theory in Engineering Systems David Blockley University of Bristol Bristol UK by

Contents Introduction Quality Process Holons BCIOD+R Evidence through Italian Flag Example Conclusions

Introduction  Reliability theory take up around world is patchy  Various approaches to uncertainty  Uncertainty has three components: FIR  Need for reliability theory to be set in context  Need for more general approach bring 'soft' and 'hard' together.

Quality ‘The totality of characteristics of an entity that bear upon its ability to satisfy stated and implied needs.’ ISO Too often used to refer only to functionality, not including safety, economy, sustainability Quality is a measure of how is the totality of what we are getting relative to what we want. Reliability and safety are part of quality. Reliability calculations are a small part of safety and of quality. Systems/modelling uncertainty Human factors Must not undervalue formal calculations Need to understand context

Hard & Soft' Systems hard physical system does not involve people action and reaction soft system involves people action, reaction, intention Treatment traditionally quite separate Engineering - objective Management - subjective Reliability calculations and QA systems are not independent Failures often at the interface How to take into account wider issues? Systems approach needed

Process  Interacting processes levels of precision of definition output is a product - a new process processes interact products are processes  Processes are the things that we do  The advantage of thinking about process is there in front of you clarity sub-processes

Quality The totality of the characteristics of a process which has, as its product, a new process. BCIOD+R  Business  Customer  Integrating  Operating  Delivery  Regulatory

0S n (E)S p (E)1

Past Present Future Soft & Hard Hazards Preconditions, trends patterns of concern Alternative Futures (Scenarios) Soft & Hard Identification of future hazards events with risk = chances + consequences + context Evidence Remove Change process Transfer Redesign etc Reduce (Strategic) What if questions share, redesign etc Remedy (Tactics) retain, redesign make acceptable contingency plans Managing systems to success based on evidence Time

PROCURING A NEW BUILDING FOR A PUMP PLANT Success: procure a building for the pump plant on time within the specifications of the client with an adequate level of safety and built within the available budget

PROCURING A NEW BUILDING FOR A PUMP PLANT

PERFORMING DETAILED DESIGN Success: Producing the detailed design of the pump building with an adequate level of safety on time through the appropriate specs and drawings

PERFORMING DETAILED DESIGN