Friends Life With-Profits Annuity De-risking (WPAD) Darren Thorne, Aviva Friends Life John Jenkins, KPMG 17 February 2016.

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Presentation transcript:

Friends Life With-Profits Annuity De-risking (WPAD) Darren Thorne, Aviva Friends Life John Jenkins, KPMG 17 February 2016

Progress Community Sessional Meetings Education Working parties Volunteering Research Shaping the future Networking Professional support Enterprise and risk Learned society Opportunity International profile Journals Supporting Expertise Sponsorship Thought leadership 1.Background – Impact of WPF holding annuities 2.Options for WPAD and why internal reallocation 3.Governance rules 4.Stages of the WPAD 5.KPMG’s role as the External Advisor to derive a range of market tested prices (Financial and Mortality Bases) 6.Impact of the March 2014 Chancellor’s Budget on the Financial Basis 7.Determining the actual price 8.Example timeline 9.Investment considerations 10.Implementation 11.Conclusions

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Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Dark blue R17 G52 B88 Gold R217 G171 B22 Mid blue R64 G150 B184 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Light grey R220 G221 B217 Pea green R121 G163 B42 Forest green R0 G132 B82 Bottle green R17 G179 B162 Cyan R0 G156 B200 Light blue R124 G179 B225 Violet R128 G118 B207 Purple R143 G70 B147 Fuscia R233 G69 B140 Red R200 G30 B69 Orange R238 G Dark grey R63 G69 B72 Step 1: Pricing yields from individual annuities Benchmarked individual annuity quotes Fund size, age, postcode composition of the Friends Life annuities Price and mortality basis to backsolve for spread to the swap curve Blended spreads to take account of gender specific mortalities Market consistent range of pricing spreads from individual annuities 10

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Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Dark blue R17 G52 B88 Gold R217 G171 B22 Mid blue R64 G150 B184 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Light grey R220 G221 B217 Pea green R121 G163 B42 Forest green R0 G132 B82 Bottle green R17 G179 B162 Cyan R0 G156 B200 Light blue R124 G179 B225 Violet R128 G118 B207 Purple R143 G70 B147 Fuscia R233 G69 B140 Red R200 G30 B69 Orange R238 G Dark grey R63 G69 B72 Assess the prices at which recent insurance transactions / reallocations completed. Allowing for specific nature of assets backing annuities and impact of credit spreads movements in the event of investment switching for each deal. Compared Step 3 pricing against Steps 1 and 2, with higher weighting placed on those that are similar in size and nature to the Friends Life annuities Step 3: Input from insurance transactions 12 A further adjustment is then made to arrive at a final proposed range of pricing yields which reflected all three steps of annuity market sources

Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Dark blue R17 G52 B88 Gold R217 G171 B22 Mid blue R64 G150 B184 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Light grey R220 G221 B217 Pea green R121 G163 B42 Forest green R0 G132 B82 Bottle green R17 G179 B162 Cyan R0 G156 B200 Light blue R124 G179 B225 Violet R128 G118 B207 Purple R143 G70 B147 Fuscia R233 G69 B140 Red R200 G30 B69 Orange R238 G Dark grey R63 G69 B72 Step 4: Input from audits and benchmarking Step 5: Asset valuation adjustments 13 Information gathered from audits and benchmarking of realistic mortality and improvements bases were considered Links to Proposed Mortality Basis (next slide) Information gathered from audits and benchmarking of realistic mortality and improvements bases were considered Links to Proposed Mortality Basis (next slide) Step 4: Inputs from audits and benchmarking Reviewed with our banking practice the valuation methodology of the assets backing the annuities, focusing on non-mark to market assets which are difficult to value All assets to be transferred are generally valued at bid values. Recommended adjustment for assets valued on a non-bid basis Assets dependent on input from external asset managers required Friends Life to engage with the asset managers on judgemental aspects of asset valuation Reviewed with our banking practice the valuation methodology of the assets backing the annuities, focusing on non-mark to market assets which are difficult to value All assets to be transferred are generally valued at bid values. Recommended adjustment for assets valued on a non-bid basis Assets dependent on input from external asset managers required Friends Life to engage with the asset managers on judgemental aspects of asset valuation Step 5: Asset valuation adjustments

Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Dark blue R17 G52 B88 Gold R217 G171 B22 Mid blue R64 G150 B184 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Light grey R220 G221 B217 Pea green R121 G163 B42 Forest green R0 G132 B82 Bottle green R17 G179 B162 Cyan R0 G156 B200 Light blue R124 G179 B225 Violet R128 G118 B207 Purple R143 G70 B147 Fuscia R233 G69 B140 Red R200 G30 B69 Orange R238 G Dark grey R63 G69 B72 Mortality Basis The proposed Mortality Basis determined a range of realistic mortality bases (% mortality table and mortality improvement factors) for the reallocated annuities 14 Mortality Basis Reviewed Friends Life’s mortality experience investigations of the annuities and proposed appropriate mortality bases Review reflected period of investigations, trends / outliers, data credibility & realistic valuation basis CMI improvement factor Benchmarked Friends Life’s mortality improvement basis against the industry Ensured consistency of benchmarking by comparing expectation of life derived using a standardised base mortality assumption with companies’ own improvement bases

Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Dark blue R17 G52 B88 Gold R217 G171 B22 Mid blue R64 G150 B184 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Light grey R220 G221 B217 Pea green R121 G163 B42 Forest green R0 G132 B82 Bottle green R17 G179 B162 Cyan R0 G156 B200 Light blue R124 G179 B225 Violet R128 G118 B207 Purple R143 G70 B147 Fuscia R233 G69 B140 Red R200 G30 B69 Orange R238 G Dark grey R63 G69 B72 Impact of the March 2014 Chancellor’s Budget on the Financial Basis The Chancellor’s 2014 Budget released in March 2014 has had some impact on the developments of the individual and bulk annuity markets since then Evidence of downsizing of the individual annuity market and some improvement in bulk annuity quotations since the Budget. Not easy to know whether this is due to the Budget or companies having available particular assets of which to offer better terms. But sufficient and consistent market comment means impact of the Budget should be allowed for at the time in 2014 Individual OMO market quotes have on average become more competitive since January This increased competitiveness is not universal, as some companies’ prices have become less competitive since January This may be a result of the uncertainties in the market as a result of the March 2014 Budget, with companies taking different strategies during the transitional period 15

Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Dark blue R17 G52 B88 Gold R217 G171 B22 Mid blue R64 G150 B184 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Light grey R220 G221 B217 Pea green R121 G163 B42 Forest green R0 G132 B82 Bottle green R17 G179 B162 Cyan R0 G156 B200 Light blue R124 G179 B225 Violet R128 G118 B207 Purple R143 G70 B147 Fuscia R233 G69 B140 Red R200 G30 B69 Orange R238 G Dark grey R63 G69 B72 Determining the actual price Stage 1 risk free….. Stage 2 / 3 shareholder: –return on economic capital –acceptable impacts on other metrics Real best estimate assumptions –Investment strategy / returns, allowance for special assets –Longevity – more portfolio specific, future improvements –Other, e.g. historic age ratings, any spouse cases, LPI.... Acceptability: –price range position versus other T&Cs –supplementary benchmarking of price/impacts versus new business and public market information –Independent Actuary –PRA/FCA/WPC Actuarial Advisor, “commercial tension” 16

Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Dark blue R17 G52 B88 Gold R217 G171 B22 Mid blue R64 G150 B184 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Light grey R220 G221 B217 Pea green R121 G163 B42 Forest green R0 G132 B82 Bottle green R17 G179 B162 Cyan R0 G156 B200 Light blue R124 G179 B225 Violet R128 G118 B207 Purple R143 G70 B147 Fuscia R233 G69 B140 Red R200 G30 B69 Orange R238 G Dark grey R63 G69 B72 Example timeline EA price range received OctNovDecJanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec Q Q Q Q Q Decision point: Is Reallocation based on EA range feasible ? 17/3 Draft Initial Terms Shared with WPC Revised proposal for WPC advice and FLL Board approval 4/7 Notify FCA & PRA of proposed Reallocation 60 Day FCA/PRA Review period Board confirms reallocation provided no objection from PRA/FCA 30/09 Reallocation Effective Date Instruct EA Informal meeting with WPC members for technical discussion of proposal With Profits Committee Life Board – dates TBC Start to develop terms for reallocation Asset Switching At risk trading EA – External Adviser 17

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Colour palette for PowerPoint presentations Dark blue R17 G52 B88 Gold R217 G171 B22 Mid blue R64 G150 B184 Secondary colour palette Primary colour palette Light grey R220 G221 B217 Pea green R121 G163 B42 Forest green R0 G132 B82 Bottle green R17 G179 B162 Cyan R0 G156 B200 Light blue R124 G179 B225 Violet R128 G118 B207 Purple R143 G70 B147 Fuscia R233 G69 B140 Red R200 G30 B69 Orange R238 G Dark grey R63 G69 B72 21 Questions Comments The views expressed in this presentation are those of invited contributors and not necessarily those of the IFoA. The IFoA do not endorse any of the views stated, nor any claims or representations made in this presentation and accept no responsibility or liability to any person for loss or damage suffered as a consequence of their placing reliance upon any view, claim or representation made in this presentation. The information and expressions of opinion contained in this publication are not intended to be a comprehensive study, nor to provide actuarial advice or advice of any nature and should not be treated as a substitute for specific advice concerning individual situations. On no account may any part of this presentation be reproduced without the written permission of the IFoA, KPMG or Friends Life / Aviva.