Post-WW II Choice Regional Power vs. Global Power Choice: Global ( )

Explaining the Cold War 1. Realism Power = Rivalry Power = Rivalry the problem is Soviet power the problem is Soviet power The strategy is balancing against Soviet power The strategy is balancing against Soviet power Example: Relations with China Example: Relations with China

Explaining the Cold War 2. Idealism the problem is Communist values the problem is Communist values Anti-democratic Anti-democratic Anti-free trade Anti-free trade Human rights violations Human rights violations Expansionist dictators Expansionist dictators

Marxism, Communism Karl Marx and Friedrich Engels Karl Marx and Friedrich Engels Karl Marx Karl Marx The Communist Manifesto 1848 The Communist Manifesto 1848 The Communist Manifesto The Communist Manifesto Basics: Capitalism is exploitation Rich exploit poor Government enforces exploitation Worker’s revolution Communism phase begins: End private property; create collective ownership End private property; create collective ownership

Communism in Power Soviet Union 1917 –20 million deaths in 1950s LeninStalin LeninStalin

Communism in Power People’s Republic of China 1949 –Estimates from million ( ) –Mao Zedong

Explaining the Cold War 3. Constructivist Explanation Incompatible identities Incompatible identities US need to spread democracy and free markets US need to spread democracy and free markets –Can’t accept closed economies and dictatorships Russian insecurity Russian insecurity –Expanding to create buffer states

Explaining the Cold War 4. US economic imperialism (Soviet and left of center argument) –US search for cheap labor and cheap resources But, analysis cannot ignore Soviet side of the equation But, analysis cannot ignore Soviet side of the equation

US Cold War Policies 1. Anti-Soviet/Anti-Communist 2. Free Markets 3. Spreading Democracy 4. Multilateralism 5. Regional Conflict 6. Deterrence and Forward Presence

1. Anti-Soviet/Anti-Communism “Truman Doctrine” “Truman Doctrine” speech, March 1947 speech, March 1947speech, March 1947speech, March 1947 NSC-68 NSC-68 NSC-68 –(US rearmament plan, 1950) plan, 1950) Harry Truman Harry Truman

Division of Europe (By 1948)

Bipolarity The Cold War Balance of Power IsraelSyria/Egypt EthiopiaSomalia TaiwanChina S. KoreaN. Korea S. Viet NamN. Viet Nam W. BerlinE. Berlin W. GermanyE. Germany Britain/France/JapanPoland/Czech USUSSR

Containment Kennan’s Long Telegram as published in Foreign Affairs, “The Sources of “The Sources of Soviet Conduct” Soviet Conduct” by “X”, 1947 George Kennan

2. Free Markets Strong political economy strong stability through middle free markets class andfailure economic andof economic andof social mobilitycommunist social mobilitycommunistsubversion*peace *Still US belief that free markets will discourage radical ideologies (radical Islam in 21 st century) (radical Islam in 21 st century)

US Policies For Europe: “Marshall Plan” Speech, June 1947 “Marshall Plan” Speech, June 1947Speech, June 1947Speech, June 1947 Building Global Economic Order International Monetary Fund – IMF International Monetary Fund – IMFIMF General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade – GATT (example of GATT Agreements) General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade – GATT (example of GATT Agreements)(example of GATT Agreements)(example of GATT Agreements) –World Trade Organization - WTO WTO World Bank World Bank World Bank World Bank

3. Spreading Democracy The Good News Europe and Northeast Asia Latin America and Southeast Asia Freedom House Freedom House Freedom House Freedom House Map of free nations Map of free nations Map of free nations Map of free nations

The Bad News Non-democratic nations that were US allies or US-supported during some part of the cold war: Nicaragua, Paraguay, Argentina, Chile, Panama, El Salvador, Guatemala, Honduras, Brazil, South Africa, Somalia, Algeria, Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Iran, Kenya, Zaire, South Korea, Taiwan, Philippines, Indonesia, Pakistan, Turkey, Thailand, Burma, Cuba

Worse News PM MossadeghPres. ArbenzPres. Allende Iran, 1953Guatemala, 1954 Chile, 1973

Strange News

4. Multilateralism North Atlantic Treaty Organization - NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organization - NATONATO Central Treaty Organization - CENTO Central Treaty Organization - CENTO Southeast Asia Treaty Organization- SEATO Southeast Asia Treaty Organization- SEATO SEATO Australia, New Zealand, US Pact – ANZUS Australia, New Zealand, US Pact – ANZUSANZUS United Nations United Nations United Nations United Nations In Europe NATO vs. Warsaw Pact In Europe NATO vs. Warsaw Pact –deployments deployments

5. Regional Conflict

Regional Conflicts Israel vs. Syria/Egypt/PLO Ethiopia vs. Somalia (1970s) Taiwan vs. China (1949-present) S. Korea vs. N. Korea (1948-present) S. Viet Nam vs. N. Viet Nam ( ) FNLA/UNITA vs. MPLA (Angola, 1970s-80s) Nicaragua, Guatemala, El Salvador (1970s-80s) USUSSR

Rules of Regional Conflict 1. No direct US-Soviet conflict 1. No direct US-Soviet conflict 2. No escalation 2. No escalation

6. Deterrence and Forward Presence From Great Powers to Superpowers! What would WW III look like? Underneath all the political and military action during Cold War… US Congress, Office of Technology Assessment, The Effects of Nuclear War, 1979 The Effects of Nuclear War, The Effects of Nuclear War,

Hiroshima

Nagasaki

Atomic and Nuclear Weapons Nuclear

ICBM Intercontinental Ballistic Missile

Trajectory of ICBMs

SLBM – Submarine-launched Ballistic Missile

Launch Tube Hatches on USS Alabama

Launch (artwork)

Strategic Bombers

Nuclear tests

Numbers of Nuclear Weapons

Info on Nuclear Weapons Federation of American Scientists Federation of American Scientists Federation of American Scientists Federation of American Scientists US Strategic Command US Strategic Command US Strategic Command US Strategic Command Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists Natural Resources Defense Council Natural Resources Defense Council Natural Resources Defense Council Natural Resources Defense Council Nuclear Threat Initiative Nuclear Threat Initiative Nuclear Threat Initiative Nuclear Threat Initiative

Deterrence and Credibility Influencing the enemy’s decision making process Influencing the enemy’s decision making process

Why so many Weapons: Deterrence Soviet First Strike: Successful: USSR “wins” US Second strike US USSR

US Second Strike Capability Soviet First Strike US Second strike Scenario: Everyone Dies US USSR

Forward Presence US Military Bases World Wide 2007 US Military Bases World Wide 2007