NRCS National Water and Climate Center Update Tom Pagano 503 414 3010 Natural Resources Conservation Service.

Slides:

Advertisements

Similar presentations

Course Introduction: Overview of Water Supply Forecasting Practices Kevin Werner, CBRFC.

Advertisements

Abstract Influence of NRCS snowcourse measurement date on data accuracy and climatic trends Thomas Pagano National.

Helper Variables Why do we want them? How do we create them? What to avoid with them? Tom Pagano

Andy Wood Univ. of Washington Dept. of Civil & Envir. Engr. Statistics related to the merging of short and long lead precipitation predictions in the continental.

Northwest River Forecast Center Seasonal Volume Forecasts Using Ensemble Streamflow Prediction for the 2011 Water Year Steve King, Hydrologist

Hydrologic Outlook for the Pacific Northwest Andy Wood and Dennis P. Lettenmaier Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering for Washington Water.

Mel Kunkel & Jen Pierce Boise State University Climatic Indices: Predictors of Idaho's Precipitation and Streamflow.

Seasonal Volume Forecasts Using Ensemble Streamflow Prediction for the 2008 Water Year Ray Fukunaga, Senior Hydrologist Northwest River Forecast Center.

Seasonal Volume Forecasts Using Ensemble Streamflow Prediction for the 2007 Water Year Kevin Berghoff, Hydrologist Northwest River Forecast Center.

Long Term Streamflow Forecast Validation Western Washington Watersheds Water Year 2004 If only we’d seen this one coming... Pascal Storck 3TIER Environmental.

Seasonal Volume Forecasts Using Ensemble Streamflow Prediction for the 2006 Water Year Steve King, Hydrologist Northwest River Forecast Center.

Seasonal outlooks for hydrology and water resources in the Pacific Northwest Andy Wood Alan Hamlet Dennis P. Lettenmaier Department of Civil and Environmental.

Seasonal Volume Forecasts Using Ensemble Streamflow Prediction for the 2007 Water Year Steve King, Hydrologist Northwest River Forecast Center.

1 Washington Water Outlook, Climate Impacts Group, Seattle, Washington – March 21, 2005 “Western Snowpack and Water Supply Perspectives” Phil Pasteris.

Seasonal Volume Forecasts Using Ensemble Streamflow Prediction for the 2008 Water Year Steve King, Hydrologist Northwest River Forecast Center.

NWS ~ NorthWest River Forecast Center Seasonal Volume Forecasts Using Ensemble Streamflow Prediction for the 2006 Water Year Kevin Berghoff, Hydrologist.

Idaho's Climate and Water Resource Forecast for the 2008 Water Year Sponsored by: The Climatic Impacts Group at the University of Washington and the.

Seasonal outlooks for hydrology and water resources: streamflow, reservoir, and hydropower forecasts for the Pacific Northwest Andy Wood and Alan Hamlet.

Colorado Basin River Forecast Center Water Supply Forecasting Method Michelle Stokes Hydrologist in Charge Colorado Basin River Forecast Center April 28,

Andy Wood, Ted Bohn, George Thomas, Ali Akanda, Dennis P. Lettenmaier University of Washington west-wide experimental hydrologic forecast system OBJECTIVE.

A Brief Introduction to Statistical Forecasting Kevin Werner.

NWS Calibration Workshop, LMRFC March, Historical Data Access Basic Calibration Workshop March 10-13, 2009 LMRFC.

CBRFC April 2014 CUWCD Briefing/Meeting 1:30pm April 8, 2014 Ashley Nielson.

Southwest Hydrometeorology Symposium Tempe, AZ September 28, 2011 Kevin Werner NWS Colorado Basin River Forecast Center : A Year of Extremes.

Matthew Greenstein | METEO 485 | Apr. 26, 2004 Using Neural Networks and Lagged Climate Indices to Predict Monthly Temperature and Precipitation Anomalies.

California Data Exchange Center Hydrologic Database System

Where does VIPER get its data from? Tom Pagano

US Army Corps of Engineers BUILDING STRONG ® Omaha Districts Inflow Forecast Regression Analysis Carrie Vuyovich and Steven Daly ERDC-CRREL Cold Regions.

Overview of the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center Lisa Holts.

Quality control of daily data on example of Central European series of air temperature, relative humidity and precipitation P. Štěpánek (1), P. Zahradníček.

Statistical Water Supply (SWS) Mathematical relationships, in the form of regression equations, between measurements of observed climate conditions (predictor.

HYDROLOGIC DATA. BACKGROUND Analysis and synthesis of data is required to perform any hydrologic computation. The engineer needs to: Identify and define.

American Association of State Climatologists, Coeur d’ Alene, ID 18 July, 2007 Update Since Rapid City Jan Curtis Applied Climatologist National Water.

WISKI Open Water and Ice Bernard Trevor, M.Eng. P.Eng. River Forecast Section Environment and Sustainable Resource Development WISKI ESRD Users Conference.

NRCS National Water and Climate Center Update Tom Pagano Natural Resources Conservation Service.

The Z-Score Regression Method and You Tom Pagano

Hydrologic Forecasting With Statistical Models Angus Goodbody David Garen USDA Natural Resources Conservation Service National Water and Climate Center.

NRCS Water Resource Information Systems Claudia C. Hoeft, P.E. National Hydraulic Engineer National Program Manager – Snow Survey and Water Supply Forecasting.

The Viper Main Interface Layout and interpretation.

NOAA / WSWC Workshop on Advancing Seasonal Prediction for Water Resources Jon Gottschalck and Dave DeWitt NWS / NCEP / Climate Prediction Center October.

RFC Climate Requirements 2 nd NOAA Climate NWS Dialogue Meeting January 4, 2006 Kevin Werner.

NWRFC Water Supply Directions for Steve King Northwest River Forecast Center.

Probabilistic seasonal water supply forecasting in an operational environment: the USDA-NRCS Perspective Tom Pagano

Hydrologic Forecasting Alan F. Hamlet Dennis P. Lettenmaier JISAO/CSES Climate Impacts Group Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering University of.

Calibrating a Complex Environmental Model to Historic Data San Francisco, October 25-26, Goldsim User Conference Presented By: Alan Keizur, P.E.

A Modeling Framework for Improved Agricultural Water Supply Forecasting George Leavesley, Colorado State University, Olaf David,

Operational Drought Monitoring and Forecasting at the USDA-NRCS Tom Pagano

2016 winter seasonal climate forecasts over the western US Background. My graduate class (Stochastic Hydrology) is doing a final group project to forecast.

Development of an Ensemble Gridded Hydrometeorological Forcing Dataset over the Contiguous United States Andrew J. Newman 1, Martyn P. Clark 1, Jason Craig.

Recent Forecasts, Updates, and the Path Ahead W. Paul Miller Senior Hydrologist Colorado Basin River Forecast Center April 17th, 2013 NOAA’s National Weather.

Pearl River Coordination Meeting October 7, 2009 Dave Reed Hydrologist in Charge Lower Mississippi River Forecast Center.

Colorado Basin River Forecast Center Greg Smith Senior Hydrologist National Weather Service Colorado Basin River Forecast Center January 25, 2011 Navajo.

Analysis of Blue Mesa Inflow Forecast Errors Tom Pagano, aka: “Wha’ happa’???”

Future of Water Supply Coordination. 2 Past CBRFC Methods Official forecasts coordinated each month with NRCS/NWCC Skill primarily from accumulating snow.

Upper Sacramento Feather Yuba American Cosumnes Mokelumne Stanislaus Tuolomne San Joaquin Merced Kings Kaweah Tule Kern We explore methods that employ.

Experimental Long Range Flood Outlook Roham Abtahi Nat’l Hydrologic Information Coordinator OCWWS HSD.

Statistical Forecasting

Notes for Interpretation

Workflow of Tsunami Inversion

Andrew Wood, Ali Akanda, Dennis Lettenmaier

University of Washington Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering

Dennis P. Lettenmaier, Andrew W. Wood, Ted Bohn, George Thomas

Statistical Applications of Physical Hydrologic Models and Satellite Snow Cover Observations to Seasonal Water Supply Forecasts Eric Rosenberg1, Qiuhong.

DROUGHT MONITORING SYSTEM IN DHMZ

Hydrologic Forecasting

Andy Wood and Dennis Lettenmaier

Combining statistical and dynamical methods for hydrologic prediction

Andy Wood and Dennis P. Lettenmaier

Dennis P. Lettenmaier Andrew W. Wood, and Kostas Andreadis

UW Hydrologic Forecasting: Yakima R. Discussion

Presentation transcript:

NRCS National Water and Climate Center Update Tom Pagano Natural Resources Conservation Service

Graphical Products (GIS) Daily Update Guidance Forecasts

NRCS Webpage Circa 2001 until Sept 2006(!)

Design principles Rich context in neutral colors Data emphasized without being ham-fisted Still usable in black and white Completely annotated NRCS Webpage 2007

Snow

Apr

Water Year Precipitation Percentile

Combined NRCS/NWS plots (using ACIS data)

Where to get maps: To get actual data files

Daily Forecast Updates Currently, forecasts produced 1x per month using monthly data. With a simulation model (e.g. ESP) can be run more frequently but is resource intensive.

Daily Forecast Updates Daily SNOTEL data exists for 20+ years. Statistical forecast techniques are cheap/easy. Why not develop 365 forecast equations/year?

Daily Forecast Updates Daily SNOTEL data exists for 20+ years. Statistical forecast techniques are cheap/easy. Why not develop 365 forecast equations/year? Developed Excel application to calibrate daily forecasts (1.5 mins) and run them on a scheduler (10 sec)

Automated logic of choosing predictors

Three big problems in water supply forecasting: 1.Intercorrelated predictors 2.Varying periods of record 3.Missing realtime data

Z-Score Regression (Pagano 2004) Prevents compensating regression coefficients. Aggregates like predictors, emphasizing best ones. Does not require serial completeness. Relative contribution of predictors Three big problems in water supply forecasting: 1.Intercorrelated predictors 2.Varying periods of record 3.Missing realtime data Pagano, T. C. 2004: My dissertation. University of Arizona, Tucson, Department of hydrology and water resources

avg Period of record median Period of record range (10,30,70,90 percentile)

avg Period of record median Period of record range (10,30,70,90 percentile) Official coordinated outlooks

avg Period of record median Period of record range (10,30,70,90 percentile) Official coordinated outlooks Daily Update Forecasts

Official forecasts

Daily forecast 50% exceedence Official forecasts Expected skill

Calibration dataset of today’s equation Current forecast

Sept 30

May 1

obs

Courtesy Randal Wortman Army Corps 6% avg error

wsf/daily_forecasts.html If you want more forecasts in your area: Contact your NRCS Snow Survey Data Collection Officers and/or Water Supply Specialists