‘The Multinational Capability Development Campaign focuses on projects to enhance the operational effectiveness of its 23 member nations and organisations in joint, interagency, multinational and coalition operations.’ U2P Project Team: GBR, AUT, CAN, FIN, NLD, NOR, USA (GBR, CAN, DEN, [DEU], FRA, NLD, NOR, SWE)

Background Multifaceted nature of contemporary armed conflict: o Interstate o Intrastate o Mixed o non-state armed groups (inc. transnational) o ‘war among the people’ Military increasingly being challenged to multi-task: o humanitarian assistance and disaster relief (HADR) o defence engagement o prevention through deterrence, demonstration and coercion o pre-emption and de-escalation o peacekeeping o war-fighting o ‘post-conflict’ stabilisation, peacebuilding and state-building

Understand to Prevent U2P argues that the military need to become ‘conflict specialists’ i.e. extend and develop skills beyond war-fighting Military prevention efforts have to shift from crisis response to ‘upstream’ engagement i.e. to positively manage conflict, prevent violence and build peace Current prevention model – based on ‘shape-persuade-deter- coerce-intervene’ – needs to be augmented by a new human- centred model in support of locally-led prevention initiatives, based on ‘understand-engage early-act-endure-assess’ Key is the formation of the Comprehensive Contact Team.

Understand to Prevent Part One: Foundation Studies 1.Understanding the Human Domain 2.Understanding Conflict 3.Understanding Violence 4.Understanding Prevention Part Two: The U2P Concept 5.Identifying the Military Task 6.The Way Ahead: The Comprehensive Contact Team

Understanding the Human Domain The actor Psychology Fundamental human needs Positions, interests and needs Core beliefs/honzons Emotional intelligence The actor’s social environment Networks Leadership Trust

Understanding Conflict Galtung’s ABC triangle Conflict cycle Dualistic and non-dualistic attitudes and behaviour Enemy or ‘conflict partner’? Thomas-Kilmann conflict modes John Paul Lederach and conflict resolution vs transformation Healing and reconciliation

Understanding Conflict ‘Conflict arises between (and within) people when they perceive that something they care about is being threatened or denied.’

Understanding Violence Galtung’s DSC triangle - direct, structural and cultural violence Violence and the state The importance of a political settlement ‘Ungoverned spaces’ The need for legitimacy National and human security Nonviolence and Gene Sharpe Personal change

Understanding Prevention The current model – theory and practice o Warning-response gap o International law and legitimacy o Politics o Operational challenges o ‘New’ wars and violent conflicts o Fragile states o NSAGs Upstream Prevention o Comprehensive/integrated approach

STABILISATION VIOLENT CONFLICT AND ITS PREVENTION – The conflict curve and upstream concept VIOLENCE DURATION UPSTREAM DOWNSTREAM CRISIS PREVENTED PEACE MAKING PEACE ENFORCEMENT PEACE KEEPING ‘The Crisis Line’ Violence Peace time PREVENTION : Diplomatic Economic Military CONTEMPORARY ‘CONFLICT PREVENTION’

STABILISATION VIOLENT CONFLICT AND ITS PREVENTION – The conflict curve and upstream concept VIOLENCE DURATION UPSTREAM DOWNSTREAM CRISIS PREVENTED PEACE MAKING PEACE ENFORCEMENT PEACE KEEPING ‘The Crisis Line’ Violence Peace time THE MILITARY ROLE IN ‘CONFLICT PREVENTION’ SHAPE DETER COERCE INTERVENE COERCE DETER SHAPE

STABILISATION VIOLENT CONFLICT AND ITS PREVENTION – The conflict curve and upstream concept VIOLENCE DURATION UPSTREAM DOWNSTREAM VIOLENCE PREVENTED PEACE MAKING PEACE ENFORCEMENT PEACE KEEPING ‘The Crisis Line’ Violence Peace time PREVENTION : Diplomatic Economic Military UNDERSTAND TO PREVENT VIOLENCE

STABILISATION + CONFLICT TRANSFORMATION VIOLENT CONFLICT AND ITS PREVENTION – The conflict curve and upstream concept VIOLENCE DURATION UPSTREAM DOWNSTREAM VIOLENCE PREVENTED PEACE MAKING PEACE ENFORCEMENT PEACE KEEPING ‘The Crisis Line’ Violence Peace time PREVENTION : Diplomatic Economic Military UNDERSTAND TO PREVENT VIOLENCE

STABILISATION + CONFLICT TRANSFORMATION VIOLENT CONFLICT AND ITS PREVENTION – The conflict curve and upstream concept VIOLENCE DURATION UPSTREAM DOWNSTREAM VIOLENCE PREVENTED PEACE MAKING PEACE ENFORCEMENT PEACE KEEPING ‘The Crisis Line’ Violence Peace time PREVENTION : Diplomatic Economic Military UNDERSTAND TO PREVENT VIOLENCE

STABILISATION + CONFLICT TRANSFORMATION VIOLENT CONFLICT AND ITS PREVENTION – The conflict curve and upstream concept VIOLENCE DURATION UPSTREAM DOWNSTREAM VIOLENCE PREVENTED PEACE MAKING PEACE ENFORCEMENT PEACE KEEPING ‘The Crisis Line’ Violence Peace time PREVENTION : Diplomatic Economic Military Civil society Business UNDERSTAND TO PREVENT VIOLENCE

STABILISATION + CONFLICT TRANSFORMATION VIOLENT CONFLICT AND ITS PREVENTION – The conflict curve and upstream concept VIOLENCE DURATION UPSTREAM DOWNSTREAM VIOLENCE PREVENTED PEACE MAKING PEACE ENFORCEMENT PEACE KEEPING ‘The Crisis Line’ Violence Peace time PREVENTION : Comprehensive Contact Team UNDERSTAND TO PREVENT VIOLENCE

The Comprehensive Contact Team The CCT is a coordinated multi-agency group of actors — internal and/or external to the conflict — using the comprehensive/integrated approach to facilitate and support a local prevention solution. Must be as inclusive as possible – wide range of actors Must be based on a common understanding of  conflict  violence  prevention  the conflict  Must forge a common approach  Convenes and acts according to local conditions

Co-designing for resilience ‘For insiders and outsiders to sit down together and jointly work on problems, or for different groups of insiders to come together, build consensus, and figure out a way forward, there has to be a modicum of security, safety, and predictability. Someone has to guarantee that predictability, and whoever that is, they have to be able to prevail in a close fight if necessary. We are talking about a normative system here: creating rules of acceptable behaviour that give people predictability and allow them the feeling of safety that makes everything else possible…’ (from Out of the Mountains by David Kilcullen, p. 257)

Co-designing for resilience ‘Who it is that provides that security depends on the situation. Better an insider than an outside intervener, obviously... Better civil society organisations than an external police force, and better a police force than the military. Far better local military than an intervening one, and so on. But ultimately, someone has to set conditions for the meeting of minds, or nothing can happen. The paradox is that although there are no purely military solutions, there are also no solutions without the ultimate sanction of coercion to enforce the order that makes joint action possible.’ (from Out of the Mountains by David Kilcullen, p. 257)

STABILISATION + CONFLICT TRANSFORMATION VIOLENT CONFLICT AND ITS PREVENTION – The conflict curve and upstream concept VIOLENCE DURATION UPSTREAM DOWNSTREAM VIOLENCE PREVENTED PEACE MAKING PEACE ENFORCEMENT PEACE KEEPING ‘The Crisis Line’ Violence Peace time PREVENTION : Comprehensive Contact Team UNDERSTAND TO PREVENT VIOLENCE

STABILISATION + CONFLICT TRANSFORMATION VIOLENT CONFLICT AND ITS PREVENTION – The conflict curve and upstream concept VIOLENCE DURATION UPSTREAM DOWNSTREAM VIOLENCE PREVENTED PEACE MAKING PEACE ENFORCEMENT PEACE KEEPING ‘The Crisis Line’ Violence Peace time PREVENTION : Comprehensive Contact Team UNDERSTAND TO PREVENT VIOLENCE SHAPE

Shaping – U2P Understand Engage Early Act Endure Assess Impact: o Escalation of conflict to violence is avoided/prevented o Conflict parties are engaged in a process of nonviolent conflict transformation o Military skill set extended to include conflict management o Military ‘rebranded’ – will attract wider support?

STABILISATION + CONFLICT TRANSFORMATION VIOLENT CONFLICT AND ITS PREVENTION – The conflict curve and upstream concept VIOLENCE DURATION UPSTREAM DOWNSTREAM VIOLENCE PREVENTED PEACE MAKING PEACE ENFORCEMENT PEACE KEEPING ‘The Crisis Line’ Violence Peace time PREVENTION : Comprehensive Contact Team UNDERSTAND TO PREVENT VIOLENCE SHAPE

STABILISATION + CONFLICT TRANSFORMATION VIOLENT CONFLICT AND ITS PREVENTION – The conflict curve and upstream concept VIOLENCE DURATION UPSTREAM DOWNSTREAM VIOLENCE PREVENTED PEACE MAKING PEACE ENFORCEMENT PEACE KEEPING ‘The Crisis Line’ Violence Peace time PREVENTION : Comprehensive Contact Team UNDERSTAND TO PREVENT VIOLENCE SHAPE DETER

STABILISATION + CONFLICT TRANSFORMATION VIOLENT CONFLICT AND ITS PREVENTION – The conflict curve and upstream concept VIOLENCE DURATION UPSTREAM DOWNSTREAM VIOLENCE PREVENTED PEACE MAKING PEACE ENFORCEMENT PEACE KEEPING ‘The Crisis Line’ Violence Peace time PREVENTION : Comprehensive Contact Team UNDERSTAND TO PREVENT VIOLENCE SHAPE DETER COERCE

Identifying the Military Task The comprehensive approach The military task o standard — tasks which might fall to the military but might be done by others (risk, readiness, range, numbers, niche) o enhanced — areas where the military need to develop capability to be able to contribute effectively in the prevention field e.g. analysis > understanding o focused — areas where the military might already be involved in a relevant activity but where the main effort is not prevention; a prevent focus is now required e.g. defence engagement, training o new — tasks for military forces in the upstream phase; identify the military contribution within the comprehensive contact team Military-to-military – brothers-in-arms? The ‘must not’ consideration

U2P2 – to Dec 2016 Focus is operationalisation – how to make U2P practical in the field End product – handbook of flexible guidelines for effective military engagement in a variety of upstream prevention scenarios e.g. threatened o civil war o mixed/hybrid intra/interstate o local/regional violence by NSAGs o interstate?

Aims To help develop a common understanding of how best to prevent violent conflict in different scenarios To use this common understanding as the basis for forging a common approach to the prevention of violent conflict To determine how the military can best contribute to a common approach To disseminate this understanding to military forces – and others – worldwide

Methodology 1 Multidisciplinary (1 st workshop – Shrivenham June) o Military o Government o Police o IGOs e.g. UN, World Bank, ICRC o Civil society, NGOs o Business o Academia Core: how to operationalise U2P > CCT + 5 stages o Protection of Civilians (& Prevention of Sexual Violence in Conflict) o Security Sector Reform re U2P o Gender – cross-cutting o Rule of Law – cross-cutting

Methodology 2 Identify key conflict scenarios Research current best practice for each Identify gaps and seek to fill them Test and evaluate a Comprehensive Contact Team pilot in a fictional conflict scenario – Ex CJSE 16 (SWE) Evaluate, report and recommend Peer review Publish

End User Target Audience Military: o National Operational Headquarters, Joint Staffs, Partnerships, Doctrine Centers, Military Academies, Professional Military Education Centers, Multinational Interoperability Council Political: o Office of President/PM; Ministries of Defence, Foreign Affairs, Overseas Development, Peace Police Academia IGOs NGOs/Civil Society Business Media

Principles and Questions Ten Principles (suggested) – U2P p. 111 Nine questions – U2P pp

Summary U2P argues that the military need to become ‘conflict specialists’ i.e. extend and develop skills beyond war-fighting Military prevention efforts have to shift from crisis response to ‘upstream’ engagement i.e. to positively manage conflict, prevent violence and build peace Current prevention model – based on ‘shape-persuade-deter- coerce-intervene’ – needs to be augmented by a new human- centred model in support of locally-led prevention initiatives, based on ‘understand-engage early-act-endure-assess’ Key is the formation of the Comprehensive Contact Team.

Understand to Prevent 2 (U2P2)