Managing with Imperfect Information 1 6/14/2016

Perfect Information 2 1 – Source is WikipediaWikipedia Perfect information refers to the situation in which an agent has all the relevant information with which to make a decision. 1 In game theory, perfect information describes the situation when a player has available the same information to determine all of the possible games (all combinations of legal moves) as would be available at the end of the game. Chess is an example of a game with perfect information as each player can see all of the pieces on the board at all times. Card games where each player's cards are hidden from other players are examples of games of imperfect information. 6/14/2016

Perfect Project Information 3 As project managers we are always in search of perfect information, which allows us to make the right decision at the right time Generally, the only time that we can confidently say that we have perfect information is when the project is finished Within in a project the most likely source for perfect information is the project schedule. If developed and maintained properly, the schedule can answer the following questions: When, What, Who, How and Where While the project schedule is a great tool for getting us closer to having perfect information, unfortunately, it is only as good as the inputs, tools and resources used to create it. In addition, it has some potential imperfections that people either don’t fully understand or choose to ignore. Note 1: The degree of perfection required is going to vary greatly from project to project Note 2: Perfection comes with cost 6/14/2016

Key Inputs 4 Some of the standard key inputs to building a quality schedule include following: Scope, including a WBS Budget Timeline (duh!) Resources (i.e., Staff) Technology Project Constraints, Assumptions, Risks, Issues, etc. What to Do: Insist that this information is provided in a timely manner 6/14/2016

Expert Judgement 5 The most common technique for developing and maintaining a schedule is the use of Expert Judgement If this is technique being used, then the quality of the individual building and maintaining the schedule is a key factor Some important scheduler skills include the following: Knowledge of the scheduling tools used (mandatory) Knowledge of the technologies being used (optional) Knowledge of the industry and or organization (optional) Knowledge of task decomposition (mandatory) Knowledge rolling wave planning (mandatory) Ability to ascertain resource abilities (mandatory) Ability “bird dog” task status and challenge information provided (MANDATORY) What to Do: Hire only the best and don’t be a passive scheduler 6/14/2016

Percent Complete 6 Unless the task is either 0% (hasn’t started) or 100% (completed), it really doesn’t matter what the percentage is Anything in between is generally a pure guess and you are just fooling yourself and your stakeholders to show anything other than 0%, In Progress and 100% Furthermore, it gives a false sense of accomplishment. I have seen on constant occasions a task that is left at 90% for weeks and weeks, where the last 10% takes as long to accomplish as the 90% What to Do: Focus primarily on the end dates and if time remaining (effort and duration) is sufficient to complete the task 6/14/2016

Resource Inequality 7 Another thing that makes developing a perfect project schedule difficult is that not all resources are created equal Take a group of 5 developers. There is a good chance that one of them is a super star, three are ok and one is an under achiever Typically, the estimates for task effort and duration are the same for all of them, even though the super star will finish way ahead of the others What then typically happens is that the super star is given more and more work, not all of which shows up on the schedule There is also a risk the project becomes single threaded through the super star’s availability or worse; the super star leaves due to burnout and the project falls behind What to Do: While most scheduling tools are good at identifying critical chain for tasks they are not as good as identifying critical chain for resources. Consider developing a one-off set of reports that show the critical chain of key resources. 6/14/2016

Resource Allocation 8 Resource managers love to know if their staff are over-allocated. This is a legitimate concern, but I think there is often an over reliance on the scheduling tools. First, remember that all estimates are at best educated guesses and are only as good as the person providing the estimates Second, not all resources are created equal and it is hard to always know who the super stars versus under achievers are More often overlooked is under allocation, where resources’ estimated effort doesn’t add up to full time utilization. Too often there are resources that are not being utilized to their fullest. What to Do: Don’t get too caught up in over allocation %. Focus on under allocation and over allocation at a macro level (e.g., monthly over allocation of 40+ hours). 6/14/2016

Time Reporting 9 Many of the scheduling tools now have enterprise features that allow staff to enter their actual time against a task in the project schedule. In my opinion time reporting against the tasks in the schedule is just as unreliable as the estimates that were provided for the tasks. It’s not that staff are intentionally lying to you; it’s just that they generally want to fill out their timesheets as quickly as possible and to capture every event that occurred each day and its duration just isn’t the best use of their time. Therefore, they will most likely fill it out exactly how it is shows up. Even if you allocate a certain amount of time for meetings, you will never be able to have the schedule truly represent the ongoing activities and it is generally not worth the time and energy (aka budget) to make it near perfect. What to Do: Accept that enterprise tools will not provide the level of precision that you might think it will. Also, be prepared to put in a lot of time and effort in caring and feeding of it. 6/14/2016

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