Implementation and validation of a prognostic large-scale cloud and precipitation scheme in ARPEGE precipitation scheme in ARPEGE (F.Bouyssel,Y.Bouteloup,

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Presentation transcript:

Implementation and validation of a prognostic large-scale cloud and precipitation scheme in ARPEGE precipitation scheme in ARPEGE (F.Bouyssel,Y.Bouteloup, P.Marquet) HIRLAM workshop on convection and clouds Tartu,Estonia, 24-26/01/2005

Outlook 1. Description of the scheme 2. Validation 3. Conclusions and perspectives

Description of the large-scale cloud and precipitation scheme

Generalities  Developed by P. Lopez (QJRMS, 2002)  Designed for variational assimilation of cloud and RR obs  Prognostic var : Qc (cloud condensates) & Qp (precip water)  Semi-lagrangian treatment of the fall of precipitation (Lopez,2002)

 Specification of hydrometeor distributions: Concentration : N(D) = N 0 exp(- D) (Marshall-Palmer) Mass: M(D)=  D  Fall velocity: V(D)=  D   Condensation/evaporation of cloud water: Smith (1990) Triangular PDF  Cloud water amount (Qc) and Cloud fraction (Neb)  Autoconversion: Kessler-type (1969)  Collection of cloud water by rain and snow: Integration of the collection eq. over N(D) and V(D)  Precipitation evaporation: Integration over N(D) of the equation:  Precipitation sedimentation: Originality: conservative semi-lagrangien treatment based on constant fall speeds for snow and rain (0.9 and 5 m/s)

Partition of Qc into Ql,Qi

Tuning of Rh crit

Sensitivity to fall speeds (Lopez,2002)

Sensitivity to main tunable parameters (Lopez,2002)

Validation

Diffusion on conservative variables (q t,  l )

Validation on 4 months integration (T149C1.0) Q liq Q ice Q neb Oper New

Validation on 4 months integration (T149C1.0) MEAN=8.53 W.m -2 RMS=25.4 W.m -2 MEAN=5.42 W.m -2 RMS=23.0 W.m -2 Oper New

Validation on 4 months integration (T149C1.0) MEAN=2.13 W.m -2 RMS=12.5 W.m -2 MEAN=0.72 W.m -2 RMS=11.8 W.m -2 Oper New

Validation on 4 months integration (T149C1.0)

Preliminary results in T358C2.4 (forecasts only)

Case study : 09/12/2004 Oper New

Case study : 09/12/2004 OperNew

ConclusionsPerspectives

Conclusions  Importance of diffusion on conservative variable  Stability and acceptable sensitivity to time step length  Promising results to improve mountain precipitations (intensity and localisation)  Improvment of LWP in the Tropics  Overestimation of cloud condensate and cloudiness near the ground

Perspectives  Modify snow melting  Evaluation in assimilation experiments  Take into account turbulence to diagnose Qc and Neb  Introduce further sophistications