VIOLENT CONFLICTS AND NATURAL DISASTERS: SIMILAR OUTCOMES, CONVERGING CAUSES AND LESSONS FROM HAITI John Mutter* and Elisabeth King The Earth Institute, Columbia University * Dept Earth and Environmental Sciences, and School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University

Violent conflicts and natural disasters bear many superficial similarities. Yet, scholars have hardly analyzed the underlying parallels between the two phenomena. We investigates the many similarities between all stages of conflicts and disasters: consequences, responses and causes. We argue that there is enough in common that cross-disciplinary dialogue between specialized fields of disasters and conflict – with different frameworks, foci, and experiences – holds the promise that lessons may be learned for scholars and policy-makers alike. The argument is illustrated with the timely example of post-earthquake Haiti where the tenets of peace building may do more to build Haiti’s resilience than the norms of post-disaster recovery.

ARGUMENT & PLAN There are more comparable consequences, responses and causes between disasters and violent conflicts than are traditionally acknowledged by specialized fields. There is enough in common that cross- disciplinary dialogue between what have been specialized fields of natural disasters and violent conflict – with often quite different foci – holds the promise that critical lessons may be learned for scholars and policy-makers.

SIMILAR CONSEQUENCES Mortality Social and health impacts Economic impacts Environmental impacts Threats to human security

SIMILARITIES IN RESPONSES Often little warning of both Humanitarian response to immediate needs of survivors Efforts to reduce recurrence Responses reflect politics and societal power dynamics Securitization of responses Militarization of responses R2P

CONVERGENT CAUSES? Conflicts drivers endogenous – political actions. Disaster drivers exogenous – the natural extreme. Conflicts literature -- proximate and underlying causes. Proximate causes not critical. Underlying causes -- structural, political, social and cultural. Role of environmental factors?

CONVERGENT CAUSES? Disaster studies in natural sciences focus on exogenous (proximate) drivers -- risk reduction through prediction and preparation. Social science studies of disasters emphasize endogenous social vulnerability of states and individuals. Social vulnerability in disaster studies maps closely to ideas of underlying causes in conflict.

CONVERGENT CAUSES? - POVERTY - Disaster mortality predicted well by development status – factor at least 100. Magnitude of physical event weak predictor of mortality. Mortality may peak in middle income countries with rapidly developing urban centers -- Sichuan earthquake. Serious conflicts also far more likely in poor countries. Underlying cause are the main contributing factor. … Far less clear in terms of economic consequences. Pre-existing social/economic disparities between groups exaggerate.

CONVERGENT CAUSES? -ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS? – Environmental degradation enhances disasters like flooding and landslides. Environmental degradation leads to resource scarcity and tensions – Darfur? Conflicts more common during positive phase of ENSO Disasters lead directly to scarcity and increase the risk of conflict? Disasters can lead to cross-border migrations. ….. Climate change invigorate the hydrological cycle. More consequential for poor societies and provide stress mechanism that may be “threat multipliers” for conflict.

HAITI? Deadliest earthquake disaster in modern history? Poorest and most unequal in the Americas. Disaster Risk Reduction aimed at proximate causes could not have been successful. “Reconstruction” not an appropriate approach. Haitian society needs to be re-built using models derived from post-conflict peace- building and economic stimulus.

CONCLUDING THOUGHTS Disasters and conflicts are impediments to development predominantly in poorer countries. Proximate causes are secondary to underlying in both cases. Peace-building strategies that address underlying causes provide valuable lessons for disaster recovery and mitigation. A research agenda to study common drivers and linkages and the role of environment and climate change is needed.