Likely Outcomes in the National Debate over Greenhouse Gas Emissions -a public policy analysis Maureen Coyle, University of Rhode Island Faculty Sponsor: Professor Allan Graham

What are Greenhouse Gases? -Types - water vapor, carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, ozone, chlorofluorocarbons -Industrial Revolution -Effects of Climate Change museum.org/exhibitgcc/images/causes02.jpg

Timeline of Climate Change Events Convention on Climate Change Kyoto Protocol -December 2009 Copenhagen meeting

Three Main Methods Of Regulation EPA REGULATION CARBON TAX CAP AND TRADE Clean Air Act of 2007 America’s Energy Security Trust Fund Act of 2009 America’s Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009

EPA Regulation -the Environmental Protection Agency declared that carbon dioxide and five other industrial emissions threaten the planet, health, and welfare of current and future generations. -Authority to regulate under 2007 Clean Air Act -combination of recognition and authority is a "game changer"

What EPA Regulation would mean: -raise fuel-efficiency standards for automobiles -adopt California’s rules for greenhouse-gas tailpipe emissions -force auto makers to produce more hybrid and electric vehicles -force new power plants to include emissions- reduction technology. -order old power plans to have more efficient boilers, and mandate reliance on renewable energy

Likely? -Businesses are against EPA Regulation -EPA Recognition/Authority used to put pressure on United States "EPA administrator Lisa Jackson says that, “This pollution problem has a solution-one that will create millions of green jobs and end our country’s dependence on foreign oil” "It's now no longer a choice between doing a bill or doing nothing" -Rep. Markay

Carbon Tax -what would be taxed? -"Generally, a BTU from coal produces 30% more carbon dioxide than a BTU from oil, and 80% more than from natural gas.” -America’s Energy Security Trust Fund Act of $15 per metric ton of carbon emissions at the source, and that price would increase by $10 every year thereafter." -Revenue Neutral

Desirable Outcomes of Carbon Tax: -innovation -revenue-neutral -‘Tax carbon, which you don’t want to have, and reward work, which you do want to have.’ Tax carbon and reduce the payroll tax” -existing infrastructure -price predictability -consumer consciousness /tangibility

Undesirable Outcomes of Carbon Tax -harm to American competitiveness - Manufacturing outsourcing/loss of jobs -Regional Disparity -doesn’t guarantee reduction

Likely? -Political Acceptability- "tax" - "Estate Tax vs. Death Tax" -"Climate Change Fee vs. Carbon Tax" -“The irony is that there is a broad consensus in favor of a carbon tax everywhere but on Capitol Hill, where the “T” word is anathema ” (Redburn).

Cap and Trade -definition -"user pays principle" -emissions permits -initial auction to generate revenue

Desirable Outcomes of Cap and Trade -Permit auctions could generate between $ billion which could be used to offset price increases, invest in renewable and green jobs, etc -existing models- European Union - innovation -Cost effective

Undesirable Outcomes of Cap and Trade -harm economy/jobs -Requires new infrastructure -Tracking/administrative system -System/methods of enforcement for noncompliance -hidden prices Price increases- more expensive gasoline/electricity Hurt Competitiveness Reporting Problems

Likely? American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009 "Global Warming Pollution Reduction Program," -electric utilities, oil companies, large industrial sources 3% below 2005 levels in 2012, 20% below 2005 levels in 2020, 42% below 2005 levels in 2030, and 83% below 2005 levels in 2050

Likely Outcomes Cap and Trade Program –Executive support –International support –Support from members of both Political Parties –Corporate/Non-profit support –A cap and trade program could begin as early as 2012