Strategic Futures Training 9 February 2006

Aims  To provide an overview of horizon scanning and futures techniques and show how they connect together  …and how they can contribute to and complement existing strategic processes  To demonstrate a range of techniques  To consider how new types of scanning activity and futures thinking could aid Defra’s existing strategy development process

Mix of activities Presentations Group tasks Personal reflection

Presentations Thinking about the future

Some reasons why people think about the future The 40:30:20 rule The pace of change The illusion of certainty The future offers a different perspective on the present Futures processes allow wide stakeholder consultation “Uncertainty creates winners and losers. Organisations that want to survive have to adapt” Kees van der Heijden “It is not the strongest of the species who survive, nor the most intelligent; rather it is those most responsive to change” Charles Darwin “A mind stretched to a new idea never returns to its original dimension” Oliver Wendel Holmes

We can either stumble into the future and hope it turns out alright or we can try and shape it. To shape it, the first step is to work out what it might look like. Stephen Ladyman MP, January 2006

Presentations Putting futures thinking into context

Five forces STEEP SWOT Clusters System mapping Scenarios 7 questions 5 whys Type 1 scanning Strategic Analysis Visioning Scenarios 321 PMI Brainstorming Barriers and enablers Forcefield analysis Type 1 and 2 scanning Strategy Formulation Change management Action planning Leadership Strategy Implementation

Five forces STEEP SWOT Clusters System mapping Scenarios 7 questions 5 whys Type 1 scanning Strategic Analysis Visioning Scenarios 321 PMI Brainstorming Barriers and enablers Forcefield analysis Type 1 and 2 scanning Strategy Formulation Change management Action planning Leadership Strategy Implementation

Presentations The locus of horizon scanning

Transactional Environment organisational environment Contextual Environment Driving Forces Technological Economic Environmental Political Societal

Presentations Focusing on the future

V Importance Time Three horizons to scan the current and near future. Many of the drivers shaping the near future are already locked into place and are visible - even if we sometimes still have to make sense of them Horizon 1: looking towards a further out future. Current trends are beginning to shape it, but its exact form is not yet clear. We have to look harder to find the signals - but trends are beginning to emerge Horizon 2: the distant future. There are no discernable patterns and it is very difficult separate signals from background noise. Horizon 3: The lens of now

Signal Intensity Three horizons to scan

The challenges Focussing people on horizon 2 Spotting the patterns Creating institutional intelligence

Presentations 5 steps in horizon scanning

you look in obvious places you don’t sample widely you restrict the search to ‘relevant’ topics StepsTends not to work if… you create a context  systems map  scenarios  visions It really helps if… 1.Gather information 2.Spot signals 3.Watch trends 4.Make sense of what’s happening 5.Agree the response

you use external experts to challenge thinking you involve internal staff as early and often as possible you test management resolve early you decide what is “relevant” you filter out sensitive, taboo or threatening signals the process - knowingly or unknowingly - reinforces existing worldviews StepsTends not to work if…It really helps if… 1.Gather information 2.Spot signals 3.Watch trends 4.Make sense of what’s happening 5.Agree the response

you don’t allocate resource you - or your bosses - don’t value judgement you - or your bosses - are unwilling to go down several blind alleys… StepsTends not to work if… you have a reasonable budget you don’t commission loads of ‘research’ you trust your own judgement It really helps if… 1.Gather information 2.Spot signals 3.Watch trends 4.Make sense of what’s happening 5.Agree the response

scanning processes and outputs are highly visible scanning is as participatory as possible you remain patient scanners work in isolation from strategic planners scanners work in isolation from operational teams you create intelligent scannners, but not an intelligent organisation StepsTends not to work if…It really helps if… 1.Gather information 2.Spot signals 3.Watch trends 4.Make sense of what’s happening 5.Agree the response

scanning is embedded in the strategic decision making process operational staff are involved early you have a senior figure batting for you scanning and business planning are decoupled you do not have senior buy in you do not have a track record StepsTends not to work if…It really helps if… 1.Gather information 2.Spot signals 3.Watch trends 4.Make sense of what’s happening 5.Agree the response

Putting it into practice

Gather Information Cuttings Google Particular websites Policy announce- ments Interviews Abstracts Spot Signals Watch Trends Make Sense Agree the response STEEP System mapping Clustering Expert opinion Tracking Cuttings (google etc) Expert opinion Research Scenarios System mapping Wind tunnelling Pressure testing Forcefield Analysis Reverse eng’eering LHF, DBE

Gather Information Cuttings Google Particular websites Policy announce- ments Interviews Abstracts Spot Signals Watch Trends Make Sense Agree the response STEEP System mapping Clustering Expert opinion Tracking Cuttings (google etc) Expert opinion Research Scenarios System mapping Wind tunnelling Pressure testing Forcefield Analysis Reverse eng’eering LHF, DBE

Presentations Using scenarios as a cognitive primer

Scenarios Stories of the future Based on an analysis of trends (‘change drivers’) Present Predetermined elements Critical uncertainties A blend of objective and subjective research One output from horizon scanning process

Your brief You are futures consultants You have been asked by PMSU to participate in a consultation exercise to advise No 10 about The consequence of peak oil for rural development What strategic issues Defra should be scanning for/tracking You have been asked to use the IIS scenarios to aid your discussion

Presentations Connecting scanning to Defra’s strategic planning process

Five forces STEEP SWOT Clusters System mapping Scenarios 7 questions 5 whys Type 1 scanning Strategic Analysis Visioning Scenarios 321 PMI Brainstorming Barriers and enablers Forcefield analysis Type 1 and 2 scanning Strategy Formulation Change management Action planning Leadership Strategy Implementation