SURVEY OF PAKISTAN PUBLIC OPINION CONDUCTED: NOV, 2012 RELEASED ON: JAN 22, 2013

Survey Demographic Breakdown

Survey Methodology A multi-stage probability sample was used. In the first stage, the sample was stratified into four provinces. In the second stage, the sample was further stratified into districts within each province by rural and urban categories. In the third stage, each district was further stratified by union councils. Kish method was used to select respondents 18 years and older within the randomly selected household. The left hand method was used to select every third household in localities selected through area probability sample. The sample was distributed at the provincial level, rural and urban, in all four provinces of Pakistan (except for the Federally Administered Tribal Areas and Chitral). The sample was then post-weighted to make it proportionate to national representation by province.

Survey Methodology Face-to-face interviews were conducted. The interview teams were comprised of both of males and females; the female respondents were interviewed by female interviewers and male respondents by male interviewers. Sample size: 4,997 Eligibility: Age 18 and older Margin of error: ±1.4 percent Response rate: Slightly more than 75 percent

General What is the single most important issue facing Pakistan? ◦ Inflation: 32% ◦ Unemployment: 20% ◦ Electricity & Water: 13% ◦ Terrorism: 10% ◦ Corruption: 7% ◦ Poverty: 5%

General How would you rate the following institutions? (Percent Favorable) ◦ National Assembly: 40% ◦ Opposition: 37% ◦ Present Governments: 26%

Elections If the elections for National Assembly were held next week, for which party would you vote? ◦ PMLN: 32% ◦ PTI: 18% ◦ PPP: 14% ◦ MQM: 4% ◦ PMLQ: 2% ◦ JUIF: 2% ◦ Don’t Know: 17%

Elections Comparison of last two surveys of IRI (Jul/Aug 2012 and Nov 2012) – National Assembly %age PartyJul-Aug, 2012Nov, 2012 PMLN28%32% PTI24%18% PPP14% MQM3%4% PMLQ2% JUIF1%2% Don’t Know18%17%

PARTY VOTE BY GENDER MALE PMLN 34% PTI 20% PPP 15% FEMALE PMLN 31% PTI 16% PPP 12%

Elections If the elections for National Assembly were held next week, for which party would you vote? (Punjab) ◦ PMLN: 49% ◦ PTI: 19% ◦ PPP: 8% ◦ PMLQ: 3%

Elections Comparison of last two surveys of IRI (Jul/Aug 2012 and Nov 2012) for Punjab - %age PartyJul-Aug, 2012Nov, 2012 PMLN43%49% PTI27%19% PPP7%8% PMLQ2%3%

Party vote by gender Male PML N34% PTI 20% PPP 15% Female PMLN 31% PTI 16 % PPP 12%

Elections (Sindh) If the elections for Provincial Assembly were held next week, for which party would you vote? ◦ PMLN: 8% ◦ PTI: 9% ◦ PPP: 32% ◦ PMLQ: 1% ◦ MQM: 16% ◦ Don’t Know: 20%

Elections Comparison of last two surveys of IRI (Jul/Aug 2012 and Nov 2012) for Sindh - %age PartyJul-Aug, 2012Nov, 2012 PMLN6%8% PTI13%9% PPP39%32% PMLQ3%1% MQM11%16%

Elections (KPK) If the elections for Provincial Assembly were held next week, for which party would you vote? ◦ PMLN: 12% ◦ PTI: 32% ◦ PPP: 5% ◦ ANP: 3% ◦ JUIF: 5% ◦ Don’t Know: 29%

Elections Comparison of last two surveys of IRI (Jul/Aug 2012 and Nov 2012) for KPK - %age PartyJul-Aug, 2012Nov, 2012 PMLN9%12% PTI30%32% PPP5% PMLQ1%0% JUIF2%5% ANP1%3%

Elections (Balochistan) If the elections for Provincial Assembly were held next week, for which party would you vote? ◦ PMLN: 13% ◦ PTI: 17% ◦ PPP: 18% ◦ JUIF: 8% ◦ PMLQ: 5% ◦ Don’t Know: 24%

Elections Comparison of last two surveys of IRI (Jul/Aug 2012 and Nov 2012) for Balochistan - %age PartyJul-Aug, 2012Nov, 2012 PMLN8%13% PTI26%17% PPP5%18% PMLQ3%5% JUIF4%8%

Elections How likely are you to vote in the upcoming parliamentary elections? ReplyJul/Aug, 2012Nov, 2012 Definitely Vote79%75% Might Vote6%12% Will Not Vote12%10% Do Not Know3%

New Province Would you support the creation of a new province in southern Punjab? ReplyJul/Aug, 2012Nov, 2012 Strongly Support21% Somewhat Support16%14% Somewhat Oppose9% Strongly Oppose42%41% Don’t Know12%15%

analysis Pmln has gained support at the national level and in all provinces PTIs popularity has declined in Punjab Baluchistan Sind and at the national level.PTI has gained a little support in kpk PPP support is the same at the national level but is at number three after PTI.PPP support has declined in Sind but has improved in balochistan Mqm has gained support in Sind JUIF has gained support in kpk Majority of Pakistani people oppose the creation of separate province in South Punjab