Public Opinion Chapter 5

Public Opinion

By definition, democratic governments should reflect the will of the people. How do we know what the public wants? Where does public opinion originate? –Average citizens do not always have vast information about issues or elections, yet can form opinions about such matters. –What factors influence public opinion in the presence or absence of relevant information?

Public Opinion Represents Attitudes About Politics

Fundamental Values Most Americans subscribe to these principles.

Americans Share Common Political Values

Political Values Political socialization: the process through which underlying political beliefs and values are formed. Our underlying beliefs tend to shape how we approach new information. Life experiences: family upbringing, social groups, education, and the general political climate shape underlying beliefs.

Influences on Our Political Values Family: stories we hear growing up are highly influential when narratives are coherent and consistent. Social groups: people with similar traits or backgrounds have similar life experiences that shape their understanding of the political world.

Influences on Our Political Values

National Security Opinion Differences Between Men & Women The gender gap: men and women often see issues differently, potentially due to their different life experiences.

Influences on Our Political Values

Lifetime social and political context –Peace, wartime, stability or not –Economic prosperity and downturns –Race and gender relations –Recency/distance from immigrant experience

Political Ideologies Ideology: set of underlying orientations, ideas, beliefs Liberalism and conservatism are two main political ideologies in the United States today. Ideology is associated but not synonymous with partisanship. –One may be conservative or liberal no matter what parties happen to exist in a given country or point in time.

Political Ideologies: Liberalism Domestic issues –Government involvement in economy to protect workers, expand social services –Advocate for poor minorities, women, consumers, and the environment –Separation of church and state Foreign affairs –Opposition sending American troops to influence the domestic affairs in other countries –Support for international organizations

Political Ideologies: Conservatism Domestic issues –Oppose social and economic engineering, such as wealth redistribution and affirmative action –Favor light business/industry regulation, low taxes for higher earners, traditional family structures, and school prayer Foreign affairs –Support stronger military power and spending –Less supportive of international organizational efforts and entanglements

Americans’ Ideology, 1972–2011

Political Knowledge Political knowledge –Most Americans have limited political knowledge. –Political knowledge is associated with levels of efficacy and trust in government. Those with limited political knowledge: – May rely on sound bites as facts –Information intimidation; complicated topics –Time cost; do not want or have time to devote to studying issues or contests

Shaping Public Opinion Three very powerful sources of influence over public opinion: –Political leaders –Private groups –The media

Shaping Public Opinion Political leaders –Presidential administrations have enormous capacities to shape public opinion. Stress certain issues and not others Influence how departments depict issues The media, and the public, will turn attention to issues that the administration advances.

Shaping Public Opinion Private groups –Interest groups, churches, community organizations – Very deep and wide reach into society –Deploy specific knowledge effectively –Through press releases, blogs, and other efforts, can communicate their messages broadly to reach like- minded individuals easily

Shaping Public Opinion

Media –Very effective at telling Americans what issues are important –Can frame what it means for a politician to be successful –Can shape how people understand the meaning of a conflict

Measuring Public Opinion Polling –Sample Probability sampling Random digit dialing –Selection bias –Sample size –Margin of error Survey design –Measurement error Question wording Push polling –Some polls NOT meant to be unbiased

Sampling Techniques and Selection Bias

Two Pollsters and Their Records (1948–2012)

Two Pollsters and Their Records (1948–2012) (cont’d)

It Depends on How You Ask

Public Opinion and Democracy Why don’t leaders always follow public opinion? –How strongly do people hold opinions? –The structure of American government –Governing often involves compromise

Public Opinion Poll Do you agree or disagree that American policy and laws reflect the preferences and opinions of most American people most of the time? a)Strongly agree (do reflect American opinion) b)Agree c)Disagree d)Strongly disagree (do not reflect American opinion)

Public Opinion Poll Do you think people rely primarily on their feelings or specific facts when determining their own personal positions on issues and candidate preferences? a)Mostly feelings b)Mostly facts

Public Opinion Poll Some political leaders are more concerned with public opinion than others. Some elected officials lean more heavily on their own judgment rather than popular sentiment. Which do you believe is more appropriate in a democracy? a)Political leaders should be most concerned with public opinion and govern according to mass policy preferences. b) Political leaders should be less concerned with public opinion and govern based on their judgment.

Public Opinion Poll Which of the following do you think has had the greatest influence on your political values? a)Family b)Social groups (racial, religious, national) c)Education d)Political conditions/experiences

Public Opinion Poll Thinking about your two closest friends, what would you say your views on political topics are? a)Very similar b)Some similar, some different c)Very different

Public Opinion Poll Do you think most people would change their opinion on global warming (either the existence or lack thereof) if they were presented with strong scientific evidence contrary to their existing opinion? a)Yes b)No