PUBLIC OPINION Chapter 6

The Power of Public Opinion  The Power of Presidential Approval  What Is Public Opinion?  Expressed through voting  The Public’s Support of Government  approval rating: Job performance evaluation for the president, Congress, or other public official or institution that is generated by public opinion polls and is typically reported as a percentage.  public opinion: Aggregate of individual attitudes or beliefs about certain issues or officials.  efficacy: Extent to which people believe their actions can affect public affairs and the actions of government.  political trust: Extent to which people believe the government acts in their best interests. 2

Public Opinion Polls  Gauging Public Opinion in the Past  Scientific Polling and the Growth of Survey Research  Gallup’s random sample  U.S. government survey research 1940s  President Kennedy first to make use of polls  random sample: Method of selection that gives everyone who might be selected to participate in a poll an equal chance to be included. Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved. 3

Public Opinion Polls  Types of Polls  tracking polls: Polls that seek to gauge changes of opinion of the same sample size over a period of time, common during the closing months of presidential elections.  exit polls: Polls that survey a sample of voters immediately after exiting the voting booth to predict the outcome of the election before the ballots are officially counted.  push polls: Polls that are designed to manipulate the opinions of those being polled.  Error in Polls  confidence interval: Statistical range, with a given probability, that takes random error into account.  nonattitudes: Sources of error in public opinion polls in which individuals feel obliged to give opinions when they are unaware of the issue or have no opinions about it.  The Future of Polls  Telephone surveys affected by cell phones 4

Public Opinion Polls Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved. 5

What Drives Public Opinion?  Social and Political Environment  Socialization-- Impact and influence of one’s social environment on the views and attitudes one carries in life, a primary source of political attitudes.  Generational Effects  The Great Depression  Same-sex marriage  Self-Interest and Rationality  Families interested in education policy  Elites  Undue influence? 6

The Shape of Public Opinion  Partisanship  Allegiance to a political party  Predictor of attitude on a range of issues  Ideology  Liberals tend to be Democrats  Conservatives tend to be Republicans  Moderates Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved. 7

The Shape of Public Opinion  Is the Public Informed?  Fewer than half know the name of their own congressional representative  Yet voters hold their legislators accountable  Know candidate’s views on salient issues  Is the Public Polarized?  Congress has become more polarized  Worries of public incivility  polarization: Condition in which differences between parties and/ or the public are so stark that disagreement breaks out, fueling attacks and controversy. Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved. 8

Group Differences  Socioeconomic Status  Occupation, education, income, wealth, lifestyle  Political parties have a class bias  Age  People become more conservative as they age  Religion  Influence of Roe v. Wade decision Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved. 9

Differences of Opinion on Abortion Among Religious Groups, 2013 Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved. 10

Group Differences  Gender  Political gender gap emerged in 1980s  gender gap:Differences in the political attitudes and behavior of men and women.  Women became more supportive of democrats  Women more liberal than men  Race and Ethnicity  Three times as many African Americans favored affirmative action in 2012  Political opinion divided among Latinos  Asian Americans more liberal than white Americans Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved. 11

Latino Electorate Projected to Grow in Key States Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved. 12

Group Differences  Education  Today, more than one in two Americans have attended college  More access  Generational replacement Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved. 13

Public Opinion and Democracy  Elections express the public’s will  Public officials stay in touch through public opinion polls  Some say connection between opinion and policy is weak  Politicians adopt views that will not arouse electorate’s anger Copyright © 2016 Cengage Learning. All rights reserved. 14